基于家庭农场和背景风险的农产品期货套期保值和生产研究

There are important differences between family farms, firms and individual with regard to their agricultural futures hedging. Few research focus on the impact of background risk on optimal agricultural futures hedging for family farms. This program will think the production inputs as endogenous variables and make a research of agricultural futures hedging for family farms in the presence of background risks...In section 1, we first conduct the normative analysis and propose some hypotheses about family farms based on the existing literatures on futures hedging, liquidity constraints and background risks; then design and conduct a survey to get micro-data about family farms, and test the hypotheses empirically based on the micro-data...In section 2, we first explore the relationship between agricultural futures hedging for family farms and different background risks through the LOGIT model and simultaneous regress equation model; then we assume that production input is endogenous variable and the yield is random variable, classify the background risks as seven types, explore the impacts of background risks on risk attitudes, develop an model of agricultural futures hedging and production for family farms in the presence of background risks and basis risk; finally, We set the distribution function of subjective opinion for family farms, and use the Bayesian MCMC numerical simulation method to solve and analysis the model...In section 3, we first study the relationship between background risks and liquidity constraints of family farms; then incorporate the liquidity constraints based on background risk into the model developed in section 2, modify, solve and analysis the new model to explore the impact of liquidity constraints on the optimal agricultural futures hedging and production for family farms. Next, we analysis the different Patterns and characteristics of the three kinds of government price support policies (minimum purchase price, temporary purchase and reserve, target price) in china, and research the optimal agricultural futures hedging and production in the presence of government price subsidy. Finally, we make policy recommendations.

家庭农场、公司和农民个体在农产品期货套期保值方面差异明显。较少文献研究背景风险对期货套期保值决策的影响。本项目基于家庭农场和背景风险，研究农产品期货套期保值和生产投入。首先进行理论分析，形成家庭农场特质的有关假说，通过调研和购买获取微观数据，对假说进行实证检验；其次采用LOGIT模型和联立回归方程探讨背景风险与农产品期货套期保值和生产之间的关系；然后，考虑基差风险，生产投入为决策变量，产量为随机变量，将背景风险分为若干类，探讨背景风险对风险态度的影响，构建基于家庭农场和背景风险的期货套期保值和生产模型。设定家庭农场主观观点分布，采用贝叶斯MCMC数值模拟法对模型求解；接下来，研究背景风险对流动性约束的影响，建立基于背景风险的流动性约束条件，对模型进行修正和求解；最后，探讨不同政府价格支持政策（最低收购价、临时收储、目标价格）对家庭农场期货套期保值和生产投入行为的影响，并提出政策建议。

在坚持“农民家庭经营主体地位”的大背景下，家庭农场通过适度规模经营，以集约化和商品化促进农业增效和农民增收，引领现代农业的发展方向，代表中国农业的先进生产力，理应也必将成为中国农业最重要的经营主体。不过，家庭农场在发展过程中，面临着资金需求紧迫、借贷渠道不规范、农业保险匹配度较低等问题，特别是随着工行、农行、建行、交行等传统大型商业银行经营转型，陆续退出农村金融市场，家庭农场的融资难和融资贵问题变得越来越明显，这极大地限制了中国家庭农场的进一步发展。.本项目基于背景风险和AHP方法、通过走访调研，对中国家庭农场金融需求和信用评级展开研究。主要研究内容有以下八方面：①国内外家庭农场背景、发展状况及相关政策；②家庭农场的金融需求现状；③资金需求之紧迫与否及来源渠道；④服务需求之风险金融资产投资；⑤服务需求之农业保险；⑥信用评级体系现状；⑦家庭农场信用评级体系的构建；⑧家庭农场信用评级体系的检验。.根据对问卷和访谈汇集的数据信息进行分析，发现家庭农场存在如下问题：①资金需求意愿较高但满足度低；②向正规金融机构借款受阻；③农业保险需求程度较高但支持不足；④家庭农场缺少抵押品；⑤家庭农场信用评价的复杂性使银行难以有效的识别家庭农场贷款中的风险。.为了解决这些问题，需要提高农户文化水平、金融素养，加强其管理能力；金融机构应针对家庭农场特点，创新改革现有抵押贷款机制；保险公司可以根据不同风险类型的农场主，厘定差别化保费；政府应加快推进农村土地确权、登记等工作，确保土地承包经营权规范流转；进一步加大对新农保的补贴力度，较大幅度的提高农村的养老保障水平；信用评级方面，淡化抵押品并考虑数据的易得性，选定家庭结构、社会网络、网络信用，偿债能力四个方面十七小类指标，运用AHP法、模糊综合评价法以及专家评判法，定量与定性分析相结合，构建家庭农场信用评级模型，从根本上解决家庭农场融资难和融资贵难题。

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