可用度和费用约束下的复杂可修系统贮存寿命分析与优化

Research on long-term storage,which can be regarded as a special using form is conducted, and quantitative modeling and analysis method for the lifetime of complex repairable storage system is an important theoretical basis on recognizing its life physical process, handling its life quatity law, improving its life application performance and strengthening its life control measures. This project is aimed at studying the modeling, analysis and optimization methods for system storage life, according to the character of complex long-term storage repairable system. By concrete analysis of failure model and failure mechanism of typical components in storage system, storage reliability models are formed based on the failure rate family models which have the feature of a bathtub curve. Probability-interval models for storage availability and cost of each kinds of typical components in the system are estiblished by combination of inspetion, maintainance and spare parts strategies. On the basis, the analysis and optimization methods for the storage lifetime of repairable system are proposed under the constraints of availability and cost, while efficient algorithm is developed to deal with the complex optimazation problem. The purpose of the project is to apply the mathematical model and numerical algorithm into analytical decison and optimal control for the lifetime of long-term storage system. This research to be performed will enrich and develop the existing theoretical system about reliability and life, as well as propose an optional supplementary to realize the life extension of large-scale complicated storage systems and further improve their safety and economy.

长期贮存是一种特殊的"使用"形式，复杂可修系统贮存寿命的定量化建模与分析优化方法是认识贮存寿命物理过程、掌握贮存寿命数量规律、提高贮存寿命使用效能、强化贮存寿命控制举措的重要理论基础。 本项目针对长期贮存复杂可修系统的特点，以建立可修系统贮存寿命模型及相应的分析与优化方法为研究目标。具体通过分析可修系统各类典型部件的贮存故障模式和故障统计规律，形成基于浴盆曲线失效率模型族分布的可修系统典型部件贮存可靠度模型；结合可修系统贮存过程中的检测、维修和备件策略，建立各类典型部件贮存可用度和费用的概率-区间模型；进而实现以可用度和费用为约束的可修系统贮存寿命分析与优化；伴随形成该类优化问题的有效算法。 本项目拟提出的数学模型和数值算法可用于可修系统贮存寿命的分析决策与优化控制。在丰富和发展现有可靠性和寿命理论的同时，为复杂可修系统的贮存延寿和经济性提高提供必要的理论参考。

装备系统贮存寿命是衡量其耐久性的重要指标,用以描述产品从技术上或从经济上考虑都不宜再继续使用而必须大修或报废的状态。该指标对于提升装备安全性和任务成功率具有重要影响。无论是从工程应用还是理论研究的角度，都亟需形成一套能够涵盖环境影响、自身故障规律和维护保障特点的贮存寿命数学建模和定量分析优化方法。.本项目针对长期贮存复杂可修系统的特点，研究了基于技术条件-贮存可用度和经济条件-贮存费用双重约束的可修系统贮存寿命的建模与优化方法。具体通过分析可修系统各类典型部件的贮存故障模式和故障统计规律，形成了基于随机控制参数的可修系统典型部件贮存可靠度模型；结合可修系统贮存过程中的检测、维修和备件策略，建立了各类典型部件的贮存可用度和费用模型；依此提出了以可用度和费用为约束的可修系统贮存寿命分析与优化方法，并伴随形成了该类函数优化问题的有效算法。本项目提出的寿命分析与优化方法充分考虑了检测、维修和备件更换等维护活动，以及贮存系统自身的三类相关性：即结构相关、失效模式相关和经济相关对系统贮存寿命的显著影响。而本项目提出的融合时间维护和状态维护的混合维护决策优化方法，有效融合了贮存系统的自身任务特性、结构特点和故障规律，对于保障系统寿命，降低系统运行成本具有十分重要的意义。.综上，本项目研究的以可修系统贮存寿命为目标，可用度和费用为约束的检测、维修和备件更换综合决策优化方法，有效把握了贮存装备系统可靠性变化规律，提升了系统战备完好率和任务成功率，为装备系统贮存延寿工程提供了理论指导和决策支持。

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