基于动力学约束的中高轨空间碎片巡天策略研究

Optical survey is the main technique for observing medium and high Earth orbital space debris, it is important for protecting the space vehicle and assuring the safety of space missions. Recently, as the novel surveying strategy proposed, the efficiency of space debris observation is improved as well. However, current strategies rely on existing experiences, and cannot optimize the observing efficiency from theoretical ground. Based on this background, the proposal plans to establish the initial analytical model for medium and high Earth orbital space debris, and then refine the model using historical measurement data to derive the medium and long term analytical solution of high precision. Based on the dynamical information among the analytical solution, in order to optimize the surveying strategy, the surveying range of space debris is constrained and the relationship between the dynamical constraints and the surveying strategy is established. The research results will improve the surveying efficient for medium and high orbital space debris, provide a new approach for the optical observational method of space debris, and serve to collision warning and the guarantee of space security.

光学观测是监测中高轨空间碎片的重要手段，对保护在轨航天器的安全、保障航天任务的顺利完成有着至关重要的意义。近年来，面向目标巡天的观测方法的应用，大大提升了空间碎片的观测效率，然而，现有的目标巡天策略较依赖经验，无法给观测效率的优化提供理论指导。在此背景下，本项目计划以中高轨空间碎片为研究对象，建立其初始分析解模型，然后利用历史实测数据改进、更新模型系数，得到更高精度的中长期分析解；基于分析解中的动力学信息，约束目标的搜索范围，建立动力学约束和巡天策略之间的映射关系，指导巡天策略的制定与优化。项目研究成果将提升中高轨空间碎片的搜索效率，给空间碎片光学观测方法的发展提供了新的研究途径，服务于碰撞预警计算和航天安全保障。

本项目以低倾角小偏心率中高轨空间目标轨道为研究对象，采用双平滑模型，借助Lindstedt-Poincaré方法、周期系数线性微分方程组的解法和Flouquet理论，考虑黄赤交角、白赤交角及月球运动轨道平面进动的影响，得到长期分析解模型，在此基础上加入主要的短周期模型，推导得到了形式简单的高精度分析解模型。然后对分析模型进行了精度验证，结果表明在一定的时间内该分析解能够保持较好的精度。其后分别采用模拟数据和实测数据对该模型进行修正，得到了精度较好的反演模型，利用该模型外推与编目轨道相比较，结果显示在将近一年的外推时间内精度较好，并没有明显的发散，可以应用于轨道快速外推、空间目标轨道匹配和空间目标巡天策略研究中。最后利用分析解计算中高轨区域空间碎片轨道分布，提供了巡天观测时的有效约束信息，提高了巡天效率。结合可见期分析对空间碎片观测中几个难点问题包括中高轨暗弱目标、HEO目标、碎片解体目标进行了观测试验，并分析给出了相应结果和后续观测建议。

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