人类行为动力学及公共安全应急管理复杂系统之统计物理研究

Human selection behavior is highly complex. Study on dynamical rules in human choice behavior is of great value for conomics, sociology, and management science research and applications. With the rapid development of computer science and Internet technology, mankind now has the ability to record and statistics mass data about complex selection phenomena for human individuals and groups and all kinds of social behaviors. These large data mining, statistical analysis of its characteristics, to explore the internal mechanism and kinetics, will enable us to establish human individual and group selection models, in-depth understanding and cognition of the emergence characteristics for various human group choice behavior, and applied to emergency evacuation strategy decision making, panic risk assessment and public security emergency management. This project will construct the time mechanism model of human choice behavior through the empirical statistics and data analysis on the time kinetic characteristics of human selection behavior; to mining and study on the social dynamical effect of the human choice behavior through the empirical statistical analysis and modeling of space motion pattern of human selection behavior; applications in the research on dynamical rules of emergency panic crowd behavior and strategy making for the human intervention evacuation; and applications in the research on optimization function of the group escape probability by game between egoistic and altruistic for individuals.

人类选择行为具有高度复杂性。研究人类选择行为中的规律，对于经济学、社会学、管理学的研究和应用有极为重要价值。随着计算机科学和互联网技术的日新月异发展，人类现在已经有能力记录和统计关于人类个体与群体之纷纭复杂选择现象及各种社会行为的海量数据。挖掘这些大数据，对其进行统计特征分析，探索其中的动力学规律及内在机理，将使我们能够建立人类个体与群体的各种选择模型，深入理解和认知各种人类群体选择行为的涌现特征，并应用于突发事件下恐慌人群疏散策略制定、风险决策评估和公共安全应急管理。本项目将通过对于人类选择行为时间特性的实证统计与分析来构建人类选择行为时间特性的动力学机制模型，通过对于人类选择行为空间运动斑图的实证与建模来挖掘和研究人类选择行为特性的社会动力学效应，并应用于突发事件下恐慌人群行为的动力学规律和人为干预疏散

人类选择行为具有高度复杂性。研究人类选择行为中的规律，对于经济学、社会学、管理学的研究和应用有极为重要价值。随着计算机科学和互联网技术的日新月异发展，人类现在已经有能力记录和统计关于人类个体与群体之纷纭复杂选择现象及各种社会行为的海量数据。挖掘这些大数据，对其进行统计特征分析，探索其中的动力学规律及内在机理，将使我们能够建立人类个体与群体的各种选择模型，深入理解和认知各种人类群体选择行为的涌现特征，并应用于突发事件下恐慌人群疏散策略制定、风险决策评估和公共安全应急管理。本项目通过对于人类选择行为时间特性的实证统计与分析来构建人类选择行为时间特性的动力学机制模型，通过对于人类选择行为空间运动斑图的实证与建模来挖掘和研究人类选择行为特性的社会动力学效应，并应用于突发事件下恐慌人群行为的动力学规律和人为干预疏散。通过本项目的资助，发表文章7篇。

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