财政转移支付对经济发展影响的微观机制——基于企业、家户和县级财政数据的研究

In order to balance regional economic development gap, the central government gives a lot of fiscal transfers to local government, especially counties in poor areas. Using large-sample county-level, firm-level and household-level datasets, this project aims to investigate the effects of fiscal transfers on economic development in poor areas and their microscopic mechanisms. From microscopic view, economic growth does not only come from the improvement of firm’s internal performance, but also more optimized resource reallocation between firms. In the theoretic framework, we will not only focus on the impacts of fiscal transfers on fiscal revenues and expenditures of local government, but also on institutional quality (governance), crowding-out effect and “Dutch Disease” effect. These channels will simultaneously affect intra-firm performance and the efficiency of between-firm resource allocation. Through using micro-level data, we can investigate the heterogeneous effects of fiscal transfers on different firms and households. As for the empirical methods, we will use Regression Discontinuity Design and Instrument Variables to address the endogeneity of fiscal transfers. We will also evaluate the impacts of several recent reforms, such as “increase general transfers and reduce earmarked transfers”, “incentives rather than subsidies”. Based on these studies, we will provide policy advice on improving the system of China’s intergovernmental fiscal transfers.

为了平衡地区间经济发展差距，中央对地方政府实施了大量的财政转移支付，尤其是向贫困地区的县域倾斜。本项目旨在利用大样本的县级财政数据和微观企业与家户数据，考察转移支付对贫困地区经济发展的影响及其在微观层面的作用机制。经济增长从微观层面看不仅取决于企业内部的绩效提升，还取决于资源在企业间的优化配置。在理论框架中，我们将关注，转移支付不仅影响地方财政收支行为，还可能会导致制度质量（政府治理）弱化、挤出效应和“荷兰病效应”等，这些渠道都会对企业绩效和企业间的资源配置效率产生影响。通过使用微观数据，我们还可以考察转移支付对不同企业和家户产生的异质性影响。在实证研究方法上，我们将尝试利用断点回归和工具变量等方法解决转移支付的内生性问题。在政策层面，我们还将评估近年来实施的“提高一般性转移支付、压缩专项转移支付”和“以奖代补”等改革的影响。在研究基础上，我们将为完善我国转移支付制度提供政策建议。

本项目利用大样本的县级财政数据和微观企业与家户数据，考察转移支付对贫困地区经济发展的影响及其在微观层面的作用机制。转移支付不仅影响地方财政收支行为，还会导致制度质量弱化、挤出效应和“荷兰病效应”等。通过使用微观数据，我们考察了转移支付对不同企业和家户产生的异质性影响。在实证研究方法上，我们利用断点回归和工具变量等方法解决转移支付的内生性问题。在政策层面，我们还评估了近年来实施的“提高一般性转移支付、压缩专项转移支付”等改革的影响。在研究基础上，我们为完善我国转移支付制度提供了政策建议。

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