煤矿工人不安全行为形成机理及组合干预研究

According to a survey conducted over the past 30 years showed that above 96.5% coal mine accidents are caused by human unsafe behavior. Thus, the key point to reduce major coal mine accidents happening is preventing and controlling human unsafe behavior. Firstly, this paper analyzed causes of miner’s unsafe behavior, giving a hypothesis from internal and external causes. Then, building a preliminary formation mechanism model of coal miners’unsafe behavior. And summarized the processes about how did miners’unsafe behavior happen .Secondly based on the model constructed above, analysis from intrinsic and extrinsic aspect, on factors which can influence coal miners’ unsafe behavior and put forward corresponding assumptions between the influencing factors. Then, building a conceptual influencing factors model of miners’ unsafe behavior. After tested and verified by structural equation, by using Analytic Hierarchy Process, this paper draw an index system and calculated all weight, according to superiority.Finally, based on the miners’unsafe behavior mechanism model that seeks to influencing factors for unsafe behavior, this paper proposed corresponding intervention model which constructed by internal causes, external causes, intervention strategies, before-now-after unsafe behavior strategies; then, analyzed the causal relationship between miners’unsafe behavior and intervention system, building a “before-now-after” intervention model; This paper constructed coal miners’unsafe behavior intervention model and “before-now-after” SD intervention model which based on system dynamics methods relatively and laid a foundation for simulation studies. Meanwhile, the author gave a simulation study on the models above by using Vensim PLE, analyzing the miners’unsafe behavior trend under the intervention countermeasures, comparing its influence during prophase, metaphase and anaphase.

由于煤矿工人不安全行为而导致的事故占事故总数的96.5%以上，所以减少煤矿重大事故的根本途径是预防和控制煤矿工人的不安全行为。因此本项目的研究，拟首先从内、外因两个因素层面分析煤矿工人不安全行为的形成原因，构建煤矿工人不安全行为形成机理模型，提出煤矿工人发生不安全行为的路径。其次以形成机理模型为依据，分析煤矿工人不安全行为的影响因素，建立煤矿工人不安全行为影响因素指标体系，并进行重要度分析。最后以上述研究为基础，构建煤矿工人不安全行为组合干预模型和煤矿工人不安全行为“行为前-行为中-行为后”组合干预模型，并运用Vensim PLE软件分别对已构建的煤矿工人不安全行为组合干预SD模型和“行为前-行为中-行为后”组合干预SD模型进行了仿真模拟研究，对比不同组合干预的干预效果。