区域客运交通系统运行效率及能耗强度优化方法研究

It is well known that improving transport effeciency and meanwhile decreasing energy consumption intensity have crucial effect on the sound operation and sustainable development of a regional passenger transport system. However, there have been still inadequate studies in this regard till now on the effective comprehensive optimization methods from the systematic perspective. Therefore, this research focuses on the work of newly developing dynamic optimiztion methods to realize the rational combination of the operation efficiency and corresponding energy cost intensity of a regional passenger transport system in view of its macro-, meso- and micro-actions in an integrated manner. .In the systematic viewpoint, the effect mechanism and interactive relationship of various factors affecting the operation effeciency and energy cost intenstity of a regional passenger transport system are first analyzed quantificationally in this study. Such analyses of e.g. the establishment of certain standards of the transport industry, the arragement of some tranport hubs, the choice of a transport route, etc. are made in consideration of the dynamic interactions of macro-policies, meso-measures and micro-techniques for different kinds of regional passenger transport markets. Moreover, serial changes of the operation efficiency and energy consumption intensity of a regional passenger transport system because of the interactive effect of e.g. the afore-enumerated factors on multi-levles are evaluated from the systematical perspective. In addition, the changes of social and economic benefits are also studied based on the dynamic analysis and systematic evaluation work. Furthermore, the dynamic optimiztion framework is accordingly established to effectively analyze, evaluate and optimize the operation of a regional passenger transport system with the objects of both the improvement of transport efficincy and the decrease of energy cost intensity. Finally, the newly developed methods are applied to study and making suggestions on coordinately ameliorating the operation efficincies and energy cost intensities of certain typical regional passenger transport systems..By making effort to establish the dynamic and systematic optimiztion analysis framework with the assess of representaive examples, it is able to reasonably provide convincing decision-making supports for the efficient operation and sustainable development of a regional passenger transport system in different social and marketing circumstances.

鉴于提高运输效率和降低能耗强度对于实现区域客运交通系统良性运行和健康发展的决定性作用以及该领域内系统性综合优化方法研究的不足，本项目将致力于旨在提高区域客运交通系统运行效率及同时降低其能耗强度的多层次动态优化方法的研究。首先，本研究将以系统的视角，在宏观政策、中观控制和微观操作三个层面动态定量分析诸如行业规范制定、交通枢纽布设、运输线路选择等影响区域客运交通系统运行效率及能耗强度的不同因素在不同客运市场条件下的效用机理及其相互作用关系，以及对由此所导致的区域客运交通系统运输生产效率和能耗强度在不同层面所产生的一系列联动变化进行分析和评价。以此为基础，进一步阐释社会及经济综合效益的差异，进而深层探索行之有效的区域客运交通系统运行效率及能耗强度系统性动态优化方法；并通过对典型案例的分析，从实证的角度为区域客运交通系统的高效可持续健康运行及发展提供有力的优化决策支持。

本项目组按照研究计划，以系统的视角，在宏观政策、中观控制和微观操作三个层面，采用多种手段，动态定量分析了影响交通系统运输生产效率和能耗强度的不同因素的作用机理及其相互作用关系，并以此对客运交通系统在不同条件下的运输生产效率和能耗强度进行了分析和评价；并通过对典型案例，从实证的角度提出了不同条件下的客运交通系统的高效可持续健康运行及发展政策建议。项目的研究工作达到了主要的预期目标。主要研究成果包括：1）应用贝耶斯网络，建立了道路交通拥堵概率预测及评价模型，为动态分析道路交通状况对综合交通系统运行能耗强度和运输效率的系统联动影响奠定基础理论；2）应用径向基函数神经网络，建立土地利用密度与交通分担之间的回馈关系作用定量分析评价模型，定量分析不同发展策略对交通方式分担情况的影响，为交通系统综合能耗强度及客运效率的测算提供科学的计算手段；3）对轨道交通列车运行牵引能耗强度测算及优化相关研究和实践进行系统性疏理和对比研究分析，为综合交通系统能耗强度优化提供坚实的理论基础和较为翔实的实践经验依据；4）以计算机辅助模拟为主要分析手段，对列车在不同目标速度、站间运行距离、列车编组形式、乘客满载率等因素影响下的运行能耗强度和运行效率进行测算和对比研究，为切实优化交通系统能耗强度和运行效率提供了可操作的实践细节依据。

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