“输煤转输电”：规模结构优化、政策渐近效应与利益平衡机制

China’s energy endowment characteristic of “Abundance of Coal, Shortage of Oil, and Lack of Natural Gas” determines that coal has been the primary energy for production and consumption for quite a long period of time. However, coal resource centers are mainly located in the western areas, far away from the eastern coastal areas where energy consumption, economic and population centers are. Meanwhile, social tolerance of “fog and haze” and other harsh ecological phenomena have reached a critical point. To this end, the central government is determined to adopt the strategy of “coal transportation into electric power transmission”. With an aim of promoting the implementation of the strategy and improving the timeliness, efficiency, economy, ecological and safety degree of energy transportation, the project, firstly, forecasts the total energy demand gap of destination areas as well as the total energy supply of output areas, and calculates the power grid transmission capacity as well as the railroad energy transportation capacity. Secondly, based on engineering cost method, AHP and fuzzy number theory, and starting from unit cost-benefit analysis of unit energy equivalent to unit transportation distance, the project tries to calculate different total scale, structure proportion optimization intervals and investment structure dynamic optimization intervals of energy transmission channel of “coal transportation into electric power transmission” within several years. Additionally, based on CGE model, it conducts a simulation analysis of economic, social and ecological policies with gradual effect of “coal transportation into electric power transmission” on related parties. Finally, based on CGE model, it respectively designs investment allocation mechanism and interests balancing mechanism of “coal transportation into electric power transmission”.

“富煤、贫油、少气”的能源禀赋基本特点决定了相当长时期内煤炭仍是中国生产和消费的主要一次能源。然而，煤炭资源中心集中在西部地区，远离作为能源消费和经济、人口中心的东部沿海地区。同时，雾霾等恶劣生态现象的社会忍受度已达临界。为此，中央决策“输煤转输电”。本项目以促进“输煤转输电”战略落实，提高能源输送的及时性、高效性、经济性、生态性和安全性程度为研究目标，首先预测受端地区能源需求缺口、送端地区能源输送总量及电网、铁路等主体的能源输送能力。然后基于工程成本法、层次分析法和模糊数理论，以单位能源当量输送单位距离的单位成本收益分析为起点，确定若干年内不同能源输送通道“输煤转输电”的规模总量与结构比例优化区间和投资结构优化区间。进而基于CGE模型，模拟分析“输煤转输电”对相关主体的经济、社会和生态政策渐近效应；最终，基于CGE模型，分别设计“输煤转输电”投资分担机制和利益平衡机制。

本课题为促进“输煤转输电”能源输送战略落实，提高能源输送的高效性、经济性、生态性展开一系列研究。本课题基于历史数据，科学预测全国及重点地区如京津冀、长三角、珠三角等地区2017-2025年煤炭消费需求。并以京津冀—“三西”地区为例，预测京津冀地区煤炭需求缺口与“三西”地区电力输送规模，为“输煤转输电”战略实施提供定量基础与可实施依据。本课题通过对“输煤转输电”能源输送战略的经济、社会、生态环境效应分析，依据不同的政策目标偏向优化煤电输送比例区间。首先，从减少煤炭消费的角度，探讨了“禁煤区”政策对京津冀等地区雾霾治理的效果及经济、社会等方面的效应。其次，以“三西”地区—京津冀地区、山西—山东地区为例分析“输煤转输电”政策效应并优化输送结构比例区间。再次，以“三西”地区—长三角地区为例，分析政策效应与送端地区大气生态修复问题，并提出采用环保税路径对其进行修复。但发现环保税路径在修复大气生态的同时，损害了其经济。因此，本课题以“三西”地区—京津冀地区为例，研究“输煤转输电”政策效应，并寻找既不损害送端地区经济又能修复其大气生态环境的解决路径，通过研究提出受端地区向送端地区支付生态补偿资金，来弥补送端地区因采用环保税路径修复大气生态环境而带来的经济损失，设计利益平衡机制，解决“输煤转输电”能源输送战略中潜在的阻碍因素。此外，本课题探索了清洁能源替代使用，以京津冀地区为例对“煤改电”、“煤改气”政策进行研究，分析其政策效应，并优化能源替代比例区间。最终，结合调研与研究结论对“输煤转输电”能源输送战略提出优化建议。

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