住房租赁市场核心主体决策行为博弈及协调机制研究

Cultivating and developing the housing rental market is an important measure to implement the policy of both housing purchase and renting proposed by the Nineteenth National Congress. Correctly guiding the decision-making behavior of the stakeholders in the housing rental market, coordinating and guaranteeing the rights and interests of all parties, and realizing the healthy development of the housing rental market are extremely important, but systematic research has not yet been carried out..Based on the government's macro-management of the housing rental market, this paper constructs the multi-party game mechanism of the stakeholders (government, long-rent apartment operators, and tenants) of the housing rental market, and explores the evolution mechanism of the decision-making behavior of the stakeholders..Based on the multi-agent technology, the dynamic interactive behavior simulation of the stakeholders is realized. According to the equilibrium solution of the game, the coordination mechanism of the government effectively guiding the decision-making behavior of operators and tenants is designed. A comprehensive and in-depth study of the decision-making behavior of the stakeholders from the mechanism level to the mechanism level is achieved. Therefore, some reasonable suggestions to standardize the management and operation system of housing rental market are puts forward..The research will promote the innovation of multi-stakeholder decision-making behavior theory and method from the perspective of game theory. It also will provide strategic support for the smooth implementation of the policy of housing purchase and renting, the retention of high-level talents in urban development and the realization of high-quality development of new urbanization.

培育和发展住房租赁市场是落实十九大租购并举政策的重要举措。正确引导住房租赁市场核心主体的决策行为，协调和保障各方主体权益，实现住房租赁市场健康发展是极其重要但尚未开展系统研究的问题。导致目前市场核心主体之间存在利益冲突，影响我国住有所居目标的实现。.课题立足于政府对住房租赁市场的宏观管理，以微观主体的利益属性为逻辑起点，构造住房租赁市场核心主体（政府、长租公寓运营商、承租人）多方博弈机制，探究核心主体决策行为演化机理。结合Multi-Agent技术实现核心主体动态交互行为仿真，根据博弈均衡解，设计政府有效引导运营商和承租人决策行为的协调机制。实现从机理层到机制层对核心主体决策行为的全面深入研究。从而有针对性的提出规范住房租赁市场管理和运行的合理化建议。.课题推动博弈视角下多利益主体决策行为理论与方法的创新。为租购并举政策的顺利实施，城市发展留住人才实现新型城镇化高质量发展提供战略支撑。

十九大租购并举政策打破了住房租赁市场核心主体（开发商、消费者、运营商、政府等）原有利益格局，各方决策行为随之发生变动，租赁住房供需矛盾等社会问题逐渐显现。基于此背景，本课题重新审视住房租赁市场核心主体及其决策行为出现的新特征，以揭示其决策行为的演化机理，通过完善决策行为协调机制寻求解决问题的新思路。本课题首先以核心主体间的决策行为存在交互影响为假设前提，提出“问题抽象-机理分析-仿真模拟-机制设计-政策建议”的研究思路。其次，构建多层次多主体博弈模型，同时将主体的声誉、异质性以及模糊决策特征纳入分析框架，研究核心主体决策行为演化机理，最后，结合Multi-Agent对核心主体动态交互行为进行仿真，探讨决策行为协调机制。研究内容包括：①构建建设过程政企双方的随机微分博弈模型，引入声誉激励因素，探究政府与开发商之间的利益协调机制。②构建政府监管下运营商和租客信号博弈模型，探究在政府监管下运营商采取投机行为的概率及租客租住决策，构建声誉模型探究在行业自律和政府监管情况下运营商使用租金贷的情况，基于前景理论针对市场监管问题，构建运营商、政府和租客三方演化博弈模型，求得均衡解，并分析不同参数变化对各主体策略选择的影响，为发展长租公寓市场提出相关建议。③建立分散式长租公寓企业相互竞争的价格博弈模型，讨论两个竞争企业采取两种不同的优惠方式时的折扣价格的高低，确定出两个企业采用两种模式下能够减少存量房的阈值，并对比了企业用于不同数量的存量房时，企业采用各种优惠方式下的利润的大小。④构建运营过程中金融机构和承租人参与监管背景下集中商业式住房租赁市场政府和运营商的演化博弈模型，通过模型求解及数值仿真，分析金融机构和承租人不同监管水平对演化结果的影响。本课题研究成果有助于推进租购并举情境下核心主体决策行为演化与协调理论的创新，同时对促进租购并举制度良性发展具有重要现实意义。

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