区域系统性灾害风险评估理论与方法研究

With the rapid acceleration of urbanization process in our country, the functions of cities are becoming more and more complex. At the same time, the vulnerability stands out. Once major disaster happens which often causes a chain reaction, the consequence is very serious. The national emergency management strategy has finished the shift from passive emergency disposal to proactive risk prevention, and the systemic disaster risk which has a huge damage effect particularly need to be protected emphatically. Currently, the regional disaster risk assessments primarily aim at natural disasters, and less consider other types of emergencies and chain reactions. This project bases on the holistic thought, taking region (city) as a point of view, from the perspective of systemic risk, studying the risk evaluation theory and method of regional major emergencies: identifying key elements in the formation of systemic disaster risk, building systemic disaster risk propagation network, assessing the level of regional systemic disaster risk from the macro level; studying the commonality evolution mechanism and the scenario building of the systemic disaster risk, building the regional systemic disaster risk evolution simulation model, implementing the propagating path deduction and assessment of regional systemic disaster risk from the micro level. The research will clear the formation mechanism of systemic disaster risk, identify the evolution path of disaster risk, implement macro-micro integration regional systemic disaster risk assessment. It will help the region conduct risk prevention in advance, and guard the bottom line of not occurring systemic disaster risk.

随着我国城镇化进程的加快，城市功能日益复杂，同时，脆弱性凸显，一旦发生重大灾害，往往引起连锁反应，后果十分严重。国家应急管理战略已由被动的应急处置向主动的风险预防转变，而具有巨大破坏作用的系统性灾害风险尤其需要重点防范。目前，区域灾害风险评估主要针对自然灾害，较少考虑其他类型突发事件以及连锁反应。本课题基于整体性思维，以区域（城市）为着眼点，从系统性风险视角出发，研究区域重大突发事件风险评估理论及方法：辨识系统性灾害风险形成的关键要素，构建系统性灾害风险传播网络，从宏观层面评估区域系统性灾害风险水平；研究系统性灾害风险的共性演化机制及情景构建，建立区域系统性灾害风险演化仿真模型，实现微观层面区域系统性灾害风险传播路径推演及评估。研究将明确系统性灾害风险的形成机制，识别灾害风险的演化路径，实现宏观微观一体化的区域系统性灾害风险评估，有助于区域事前进行风险预防，守住不发生系统性灾害风险的底线。

目前，区域灾害风险评估主要针对自然灾害，较少考虑其他类型突发事件以及连锁反应。项目组四年来围绕申请书研究目标、研究内容及关键科学问题，以区域为着眼点，从系统性风险视角出发，打破单一的灾害风险传播模式，研究区域重大突发事件风险评估理论及方法：1）基于承灾体共性特征的灾害风险传播机制研究。基于典型突发事件案例分析，明确了各类突发事件对应的承灾体类型；基于突发事件连锁反应机理及典型案例，研究了各类承灾体在灾害风险形成过程中的作用；基于承灾体及其相互关系，研究了灾害风险形成机制。2）系统性灾害风险的承灾体区域特征及抽象建模研究。针对网状承灾体，明确了不同灾害情形下的区域各类基础设施网络节点抽象及网络构建方法；针对点状承灾体，提出基于影响拓扑关系的承灾体关联模型以及承灾体网络模型、基于案例分析对疫情传播场所进行分类抽象、根据人群活动属性将离散的个体与疫情传播相关场所建立关联，构建人-场所异质传播网络。3）区域系统性灾害风险传播模型构建及演化方法研究。针对网状承灾体，分析梳理关联基础设施网络的失效路径，得到其演化原理，构建了不同类型基础设施网络受灾情景及灾害风险演化规则；针对点状承灾体，提出基于承灾体影响拓扑关联的自然灾害情景构建流程、基于场所分析传染病疫情传播模式、基于元胞自动机方法构建了区域疫情时空演化模型、构建两种交互模式下的突发事件网络舆情演化模型。4）区域系统性灾害风险度量方式及评估方法研究。基于脆弱性视角，研究了城市空间脆弱性、基础设施网络脆弱性、传染病疫情脆弱性评估方法；基于韧性视角，研究了基于指标体系的城市灾害韧性、基于PSR模型的城市社区韧性、关联基础设施网络韧性评估方法；基于风险要素视角，研究了基于承灾体的灾害风险、基于场所的疫情风险、基于模拟仿真的舆情风险评估。研究成果有助于区域事前进行风险预防，守住不发生系统性灾害风险的底线。

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