耦合渐变/突变演化过程的适应性区域土地利用优化配置研究

Land use system involves complex interactions between human, land resource and the environment. It can assist in sustainable decision making of future land use. Coupling land use evolution will significantly promote adaptation of land use plans to regional development. However, the existing allocation models hardly possess the adaptation capability to gradual/sudden change of land use system. This program proposes an adaptive optimization framework for regional land use allocation and validates it in Wuhan urban agglomeration of China. The framework explores dynamic feedbacks between human agents and driving forces of land use change, and then uses these relationships to fit the gradual process and design uncertainty avoidance strategies of land use system. In basis of swarm intelligence optimization theory, these gradual/sudden characteristics are linked into optimal allocation process in an efficient allocation model. This study aims to accelerating the development of land use modeling, and providing a theoretical and methodological support for homeland planning of China.

土地利用系统是关于人-土地-环境互相作用的复杂系统，所蕴含的演化特征及内在机理为引导土地资源可持续利用提供了决策依据。耦合系统演化过程将有效提升区域土地利用配置的科学性和未来适应能力。现有优化配置研究仍难以精细刻画其与土地利用系统渐变/突变过程的适应性和耦合关系。本项目拟从系统演化角度出发，以土地利用决策主体、自然生态-社会经济驱动变量为切入点，在分析土地利用转换过程中主体与驱动变量之间动态作用关系的基础上，研究土地利用系统渐变过程驱动机理的表征方法与突变不确定性的应对策略，并结合群智能优化框架探索渐变/突变演化过程与优化配置过程的耦合机制，形成适应区域土地利用演化过程的高效优化配置模型，并以武汉城市圈典型区域为例开展实证研究。本项目通过协同耦合土地利用系统演化与优化过程，将有效拓展土地利用规划建模理论与方法体系，为国土空间优化布局提供方法与技术平台支撑。