基于“超冲突”均衡的技术密集型产业递阶式技术突破及其驱动机制研究

As China gradually improving from industrialization to post-industrialization, more stringent requirements should been meet to improve the situation of restructuring, transformation and upgrading and improving quality and increasing efficiency with the development of economy and society. Several important industries, especially the technology-intensive industries, are facing with both enormous challenges and great opportunity. The imperfect industrial innovation system both hampers the industrial technology breakthrough and makes many industries confronted with the situation of core technology being restrained. What causes the situation is that the industrial technology breakthrough has amounts of problems such as improper pattern, indefinite route, vague relationship and poor driving force. A few actions can be taken to overcome the above dilemma for instance strengthening industrial technology innovation determinedly, breaking through core technology bottleneck and breaking the international technical monopoly in the field of important industries. Representative technology-intensive industries are the research objects of this project. It will detect the technology bottleneck in the industry innovation chain and assess its blocking effect on industrial development. Method about staged technological breakthroughs involving multi participation will be put forward by the project. Then, a breakthrough route will be designed to analyze the multi-stage strengthening mechanism in case of the above method affecting on industrial technology innovation and industrial development. Besides, a ‘super-conflict’ interest equalization game model involving multi-player is established. By analyzing it and using evolutionary game theory, what will be implemented is a driving mechanism about multi-player staged technological breakthroughs.To give an analysis of photovoltaic industry as a case to verify the scientificity of relevant theoretical research.

随着我国逐步由工业化向后工业化阶段迈进，经济社会发展对调整结构、转型升级、提质增效提出了更高要求，我国一些重要产业领域尤其是技术密集型产业的发展既面临巨大挑战，又迎来重大机遇。由于受制于产业创新体系不完善，产业技术突破遇阻，许多产业的发展面临核心技术受制于人的局面。造成这一局面的主要原因在于产业技术突破“方式不当、路径不明、关系不顺、驱动不力”。基于此，本项目将以技术密集型产业为对象，探测产业创新链上的技术瓶颈，评估其对产业发展的阻滞作用；提出“多主体参与的递阶式技术突破”方式并设计相应的突破路径，分析该方式对产业技术创新及产业发展的多级强化机理；构建多主体博弈的“超冲突”利益均衡分析模型，以此为基础，结合进化博弈思想，构建多主体参与下递阶式技术突破的驱动机制。拟选取光伏产业进行案例分析，设计该产业递阶式技术突破路径，构建产业技术突破的驱动机制，以验证相关理论研究的科学性。

针对我国技术密集型产业发展现状，围绕着技术密集型产业核心技术突破问题，在产业技术瓶颈探索、递阶式技术突破的多级强化机理分析、递阶式技术突破的均衡机制构建、产业政策与创新政策评估以及政策优化等方面展开深入研究。.构建了以产业技术突破基本过程为基础的GERT网络模型，通过建立技术瓶颈测度指数，探寻战略性新兴产业技术突破路径中瓶颈节点，分析技术瓶颈在不同技术创新管控措施下的变化规律；提出了递阶式技术突破方式，并解析其多级强化作用机理，即 “累积-牵引”作用机理、 “共生-助长”作用机理、 “增值-持续”作用机理。.以张江集成电路产业发展为例，揭示此过程包含的知识与技术“双重溢出”，分析了“双重溢出”对企业参与产业共性技术研发的影响，进一步总结提炼企业参与研发的若干有效模式；针对产业核心技术研发具有“投入大、周期长、突破难”的特点，立足产业外围技术发展和核心技术突破不同阶段，分别构建了“政府-企业”间委托-代理博弈模型以及“政府-企业-学研机构”间的多方合作博弈模型，用以阐释产业技术突破多主体多级均衡问题。.针对一些重要产业领域补贴退坡现状，建立以整车企业与电池企业为博弈主体的演化博弈模型，研究双方合作创新过程中的策略选择；针对闭环式光伏产业链系统稳定性预测问题，构建了产品价值流动GERT网络模型，以价值粘性预测产业链系统稳定性；针对我国光伏产业低端技术锁定现状，构建了地方政府、光伏企业和学研机构突破低端技术锁定的三方演化博弈模型，分析了破解低端锁定的均衡条件，并提出相关策略。

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