面向时变道路交通系统的宏观基本图计算建模理论与方法

The theory and modelling methods of Macroscopic Fundamental Diagram (MFD) can be used to integrate road network objective physical conditions and time-varying macro and micro traffic flows, which also can be utilized for qualitative analysis of road network operation states. However, quantitative computational modelling of MFD is still at the exploratory stage. This project uses set theory and vector method to define nonlinear upper bounds of MFD, proposes analytical modeling methods of MFD of equilibrium and non-equilibrium road networks, and constructs a computational system of MFD that integrates capacity constraints and signal cycle constraints. By modelling and integral operation of invariant upper bound of MFD, a dynamic evaluation method for large-scale complex road network vulnerability is going to be investigated, which would take into account both topological physics and operational characteristics. By convergence analysis of MFD substitution matrixs, a proactive mitigation method for road network congestion is going to be designed, which would include proactive early warning and flows control. This project is a useful exploration to study unified computing framework standards in the field of road traffic, which aims to realize computational modelling ability of MFD. Through this project, it is expected to enrich the method system of MFD computing and modelling, and promote the developments of MFD theory itself and its applications in the fields of multi-type traffic problems.

宏观基本图的理论与建模方法可以融合路网客观物理条件和时变宏微观交通流，对路网运行状态进行定性分析，但定量计算建模仍在探索阶段。本课题拟提出基于集合论和向量法的宏观基本图非线性上界表征方式，研究路网均衡和非均衡状态的宏观基本图解析建模方法，建立融合通行能力限制和信号周期约束的宏观基本图计算体系；通过宏观基本图恒定上界建模和积分运算，研究兼顾拓扑物理与运行特性的大规模复杂路网脆弱性动态评估方法；通过宏观基本图替代矩阵的收敛性分析，研究面向主动预警和流量管控的路网拥堵缓解方法。本课题是以实现宏观基本图计算建模能力为导向，研究道路交通领域统一计算标准的一次有益探索。通过本研究，可望丰富宏观基本图计算建模的方法体系，推动宏观基本图理论本身及其在分析多类型交通问题方面的发展。