Capture-recapture modelling of population dynamics

种群动态的捕获-再捕获模型

• 批准号: RGPIN-2017-03883
• 负责人: Schwarz, Carl
• 金额: $ 1.46万
• 依托单位: Simon Fraser University
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2022-01-01 至 2023-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=765786
• 关键词: Capture; recapture; modelling; population; dynamics

This research involves the use of statistics in studying the dynamics of animal populations and other ecological problems. The research is motivated by real problems encountered by ecologists. Much of the research involves capture-recapture experiments. In these experiments, animals are captured, tagged, released and then subsequently recaptured or resighted. The pattern of captures and recaptures/resightings enables the researcher to estimate survival rates, the number of animals present in the population and other population parameters.The research aims to develop new statistical methodology to help answer questions such as "Is there evidence of compensatory mortality from predation of smolts in the Columbia River Basin." In such cases, many thousands of smolts are tagged with PIT (passive integrated transponder) tags with detectors on many dams that the smolts encounter during their downstream migration and their return as adults. Avian predation has been steadily increasing over the last 20 years with the expansion of tern and cormorant colonies in the basin. Predation pressure also varies within a year. The tags from some predated smolts can be detected on the avian colonies as a measure of avian predation (after adjusting for deposition and detection efficiency on the colonies). This makes a natural experiment to investigate the relationship between mortality due to avian predators and all other sources of mortality. If there is no relationship, then predator controls may have little impact on subsequent returns of adult fish and other methods may be needed to help restore endangered stocks. Standard statistical methods applied to this type of data are inadequate to to distinguish compensatory mortality from heterogeneity in survival among subgroups, artefacts that look like compensatory mortality such as sampling correlation, and biases introduced from competing risks. Complex Bayesian models are needed to disentangle these effects. Furthermore, the large dataset (millions of smolts have been marked over the last 20 years) introduces computational challenges in using fitting a Bayesian model to the data. Opportunities are also present to modify where detector arrays are installed which may lead to dramatic improvements in efficiency to detect compensatory effects -- just how big of an improvement can be expected and is it cost effective compared to simply increasing tagging efforts?The statistical methods methods developed are broadly applicable in many wildlife management situations where there are different sources of mortality and a choice of management actions to increase survival at different parts of the life cycle. Is there evidence that the management action would have any impact? As what stage in the lifecycle is the best place to implement such actions?

这项研究涉及在研究动物种群和其他生态问题的动态时使用统计数据。这项研究是由生态学家遇到的实际问题所激发的。许多研究都涉及捕获征收实验。在这些实验中，将动物捕获，标记，释放，然后随后重新捕获或重新捕获。捕获和重新捕获/重新考虑的模式使研究人员能够估计生存率，人口中存在的动物数量和其他人口参数。该研究的目的是开发新的统计方法来帮助回答问题，例如“是否有“是否有证据表明哥伦比亚河流域中的Smolt捕食Smolt的赔偿性死亡率”。在这种情况下，成千上万的Smolt被标记为坑（被动集成的应答器）标签，并带有许多大坝上的探测器，Smolts在其下游迁移期间遇到的许多水坝和成年后的回归。在过去的20年中，随着盆地中燕鸥和酸形菌落的扩大，鸟类的捕食一直在稳步增长。捕食压力在一年内也有所不同。可以在鸟类菌落上检测到一些早期的Smolt的标签，以作为鸟类捕食的量度（调整了菌落的沉积和检测效率之后）。这是一个自然的实验，以研究禽掠食者和所有其他死亡率引起的死亡率之间的关系。如果没有关系，则捕食者控制可能会对后来的成年鱼回报产生影响，并且可能需要其他方法来帮助恢复濒临灭绝的股票。适用于此类数据的标准统计方法不足以区分补偿性死亡率与亚组之间生存的异质性，看起来像补偿性死亡率（例如抽样相关性）的伪像以及与竞争风险引入的偏见。需要复杂的贝叶斯模型来消除这些效果。此外，大型数据集（在过去20年中已经标记了数百万个Smolts）在使用贝叶斯模型的数据中引入了计算挑战。还存在机会修改安装探测器阵列的位置，这可能会导致效率的急剧提高以检测补偿性效果 - 与简单地增加标记方法相比，与简单的标记方法相比，它是否具有成本效益？开发的统计方法通常适用于许多野生动植物管理状况，在许多野生动植物管理状态中，在具有不同的死亡范围内，可以在管理范围内生存不同的阶段，并且可以在管理范围内进行不同的选择。有证据表明管理行动会产生任何影响吗？作为生命周期中哪个阶段是实施此类行动的最佳场所？