Modelling human behaviour response to public policy and its impact on infectious disease spread - case studies using AI/ML, data science, game theory and optimization

模拟人类对公共政策的行为反应及其对传染病传播的影响 - 使用人工智能/机器学习、数据科学、博弈论和优化进行案例研究

• 批准号: 572512-2022
• 负责人: Cojocaru, MonicaGabrielaMG
• 金额: $ 7.29万
• 依托单位: University of Guelph
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Alliance Grants
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2022-01-01 至 2023-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=758771
• 关键词: Modelling; human; behaviour; response; public

The Universities of Guelph, Calgary, University of British Columbia, Université de Montréal are partnering with Sanofi, Spectus L'Observatoire Québécois de l'Adaptation aux Changements Climatiques (OQACC) and the upcoming Center of Excellence for Respiratory Pathogens (CERP - hosted at Les Hospices Civils de Lyon University Hospital Network) to improve preparedness for respiratory pathogen epidemics in Canada, in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. The proposal has national and international collaborators and expands the Canadian emerging infectious disese modelling to France via the collaboration with the upcoming The pandemic has created perturbations to the normal patterns of respiratory pathogens (such as influenza, RSV, etc.), largely due to non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) adopted for COVID-19 prevention: mask wearing, handwashing, and physical distancing. The arrival and implementation of vaccinating policies related to the pandemic has brought into focus an increased rate of vaccine hesitancy in general. Compliance fatigue with COVID-19 public health policy is currently experienced all over the world and might extend to other vaccination programs, while any remaining NPI measures may become increasingly ignored. This will result in an increase of susceptible individuals and may cause for instance a severe influenza season.Our partnership's goal is to better understand and quantify how populations' behaviour and decision-making mechanisms contribute to the dynamics of pathogen transmission. There is a two-way feedback channel between the epidemiology of a pathogen and its spread, and the population's reaction to its presence. Decision-makers and public health experts inform policy, policy is implemented, and the population reacts. Policy success is directly correlated to its adoption levels in the population, while changes in adoption lead to an increase/decrease of pathogen spread. More specifically, we wish to show how individual-level, group-level and population-level decision-making on policy adoption may influence the control of a pathogen transmission.

圭尔夫大学、卡尔加里大学、不列颠哥伦比亚大学、蒙特利尔大学正在与赛诺菲、Spectus L'Observatoire Québécois de l'Adaptation aux Changements Climatiques (OQACC) 以及即将成立的呼吸道病原体卓越中心 (CERP) 合作 - 主办于 Les里昂大学医院网络临终关怀中心 (Hospices Civils de Lyon University Hospital Network) 旨在提高加拿大对呼吸道病原体流行病的防范能力该提案拥有国内和国际合作者，并通过与即将到来的流感大流行对呼吸道病原体（例如流感、RSV 等）的正常模式的合作，将加拿大新发传染病模型扩展到法国。 ，很大程度上是由于为预防 COVID-19 而采取的非药物干预措施（NPI）：戴口罩、洗手和保持身体距离。与大流行相关的疫苗接种政策的到来和实施使疫苗接种率的增加成为人们关注的焦点。目前，世界各地都存在对 COVID-19 公共卫生政策的合规疲劳，并可能延伸到其他疫苗接种计划，而任何剩余的 NPI 措施可能会越来越被忽视，这将导致易感人群的增加，并可能导致。例如，严重的流感季节。我们合作的目标是更好地了解和量化人群的行为和决策机制如何影响病原体传播的动态。病原体的流行病学及其传播之间存在双向反馈渠道。 ，以及人口的决策者和公共卫生专家告知政策、政策实施以及人口反应，政策的成功与其在人口中的反应水平直接相关，而采用的变化会导致病原体传播的增加/减少。希望展示个人层面、群体层面和人口层面的政策制定决策如何影响病原体传播的控制。