Prediction of extreme hydrologic events at gauged and ungauged locations under climate change conditions

气候变化条件下测量和未测量地点的极端水文事件预测

• 批准号: RGPIN-2018-06169
• 负责人: Ouarda, Taha
• 金额: $ 5.32万
• 依托单位: Institut national de la recherche scientifique
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2022-01-01 至 2023-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=751367
• 关键词: Prediction; extreme; hydrologic; events; gauged; Prediction; extreme; hydrologic; events; gauged

Extreme hydrological events, such as floods and droughts, are associated with serious economic and social impacts. The adequate estimation and prediction of such events is hence of high importance. These estimates are used for the design and operation of flood protection and hydraulic structures, such as dams, spillways, weirs or diversion works. Local hydrological frequency analysis relates the magnitude of extreme hydrological events to their frequency of occurrence, and is commonly used for the estimation of flood quantiles corresponding to specific return periods when hydrological data is available. At sites where little or no data are available, regional frequency analysis is commonly used for the estimation of extreme hydrological events. The short term objectives of this research program are 1) to integrate information concerning climate variability (inherent inter-annual modulations) and change (long term trends) in local and regional hydrological frequency analysis tools; 2) to allow local and regional hydrological frequency models to take into consideration the multivariate nature of hydrological events, and 3) to properly handle the non-linearities in hydrological phenomena in local and regional hydrological frequency models. The long term objective of the research program is to improve our knowledge about extreme hydrological events and to develop a general framework for risk estimation that integrates all the elements listed above.The proposed research will lead to the development of new scientific knowledge concerning extreme hydrological phenomena and a set of cutting-edge practical engineering tools for the design and operation of hydraulic structures. The knowledge and tools to be developed will serve to improve decision-making capabilities by water resources managers, decreasing hence public exposure to natural hazard risks and reducing the costs associated with the development and operation of costly hydraulic structures. The proposed research program will contribute to the training of a large number of highly qualified personnel who will contribute in the future to the activities of academic research labs, hydroelectric utilities, federal and provincial agencies dealing with water resources, and private consulting firms. These developments will provide tangible economic benefits to water resources managers and to Canada.

极端的水文事件，例如洪水和干旱，与严重的经济和社会影响有关。因此，对此类事件的充分估计和预测是非常重要的。这些估计值用于洪水保护和液压结构的设计和运行，例如大坝，溢洪道，堰或转移工作。局部水文频率分析将极端水文事件的幅度与它们的发生频率联系起来，并且通常用于估计与水文数据相对应的洪水分位数。在很少或根本没有数据的站点，区域频率分析通常用于估计极端水文事件。该研究计划的短期目标是1）整合有关气候变异性（固有的年际调制）和本地和区域水文频率分析工具中的变化（长期趋势）的信息； 2）允许局部和区域水文频率模型考虑水文事件的多元性质，3）在本地和区域水文频率模型中正确处理水文现象中的非线性。研究计划的长期目标是提高我们对极端水文事件的了解，并为风险估算开发一般框架，以整合上述所有元素。拟议的研究将导致发展有关极端水文现象的新科学知识，以及一系列削减水力结构设计和操作的削减实用工程工具。要开发的知识和工具将有助于提高水资源经理的决策能力，从而减少公众面临自然危险风险，并降低与昂贵的液压结构的开发和运行相关的成本。拟议的研究计划将有助于培训大量高素质的人员，这些人员将来会为学术研究实验室，水力发电机构，联邦和省级机构的活动做出贡献，这些活动涉及水资源和私人咨询公司。这些发展将为水资源经理和加拿大提供切实的经济利益。