Probabilistic assessment of the vulnerability of buildings in seismic regions

地震区建筑物易损性概率评估

• 批准号: RGPIN-2019-06693
• 负责人: Saeidi, Ali
• 金额: $ 1.89万
• 依托单位: Université du Québec à Chicoutimi
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2021
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2021-01-01 至 2022-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=739054
• 关键词: Probabilistic; assessment; vulnerability; buildings; seismic

Risk assessment and mitigation of potential natural hazards are critical issues facing most Canadian cities. These tasks require both an accurate prediction of the hazard and a careful evaluation of the vulnerability of buildings despite existing uncertainties. In technical terms, a hazard can be described quantitatively as "the likely frequency of occurrence of an event of a specific intensity in a given area," whereas vulnerability can be defined as "the conditions determined by physical, social, economic, and environmental factors or processes that increase the susceptibility of a community to the impact of hazards." Among natural disasters, earthquakes represent a particularly important hazard in certain regions of Canada. Seismic risk management requires a risk analysis that can quantify the negative impacts of an earthquake. Ideally, this analysis should include a process for the probabilistic quantification of impacts. To better assess these risks, this project aims to develop a damage simulator that will assess the vulnerability of buildings found within seismic hazard area. The development of this simulator requires a fairly exact 3-D geological model, an adequate seismic microzonation of the territory, and an appropriate vulnerability assessment of existing infrastructure and buildings. The first step of the research project involves developing a 3-D geological model of the territory that provides the basis for establishing regional seismic hazards. This model should include multiple variables including the thickness and the type of surficial deposit layers, the depth and type of bedrock, and groundwater levels. Using the Charlevoix-Haute-Côte-Nord region of Quebec as a case study, a 3-D model of surficial deposits will be produced from which we will be able to determine the effect of uncertainties associated with estimating the thickness of surficial deposits from available data that varies in density across the region. The second step is the microzonation of regional seismic hazards based on existing data for the Charlevoix-Haute-Côte-Nord region and some new field measurements carried out as part of this project. Multiple methods have been proposed for determining the soil shear wave velocity; all these methods are affected by uncertainties. This part of the project will focus on the effects of uncertainty vis-à-vis seismic shear wave velocity (Vs) in determining soil classes and seismic risk microzonations. Based on a building vulnerability function and its uncertainties for the regional building types, the third step will develop a damage simulator that incorporates the applied methodologies for assessing hazard and vulnerability. A probabilistic approach can account for both the variable levels of damage associated with earthquakes and the probability occurrence of each seismic scenario. This damage simulator will represent a decision-support tool for the different actors involved in managing seismic risks.

潜在自然灾害的风险评估和缓解是大多数加拿大城市面临的关键问题，尽管存在不确定性，但这些任务需要准确预测灾害并仔细评估建筑物的脆弱性。 “在给定地区发生特定强度事件的可能频率”，而脆弱性可以定义为“由物理、社会、经济和环境因素或过程决定的条件，这些因素或过程增加了社区对事件的易感性”灾害的影响。” 在自然灾害中，地震在加拿大的某些地区是一种特别重要的灾害，地震风险管理需要进行风险分析来量化地震的负面影响。为了更好地评估这些风险，该分析应包括一个过程。该项目旨在开发一种损伤模拟器，用于评估地震危险区域内建筑物的脆弱性。该模拟器的开发需要相当精确的 3D 地质模型、足够的地震微区划和地震微区。研究项目的第一步涉及开发该地区的 3D 地质模型，为确定区域地震灾害提供基础。该模型应包括多个变量，包括厚度和类型。以魁北克省 Charlevoix-Haute-Côte-Nord 地区为案例研究，我们将生成一个 3-D 地表沉积物模型。能够确定与根据整个地区密度变化的现有数据估计地表沉积物厚度相关的不确定性的影响第二步是根据沙勒瓦-上科特-北地区的现有数据对区域地震灾害进行微分区。作为该项目的一部分，提出了多种确定土壤剪切波速度的方法；所有这些方法都受到不确定性的影响。相对于地震剪切波速度 (Vs) 来确定土壤类别和地震风险微分区 基于建筑脆弱性函数及其对区域建筑类型的不确定性，第三步将开发一个包含应用方法的损伤模拟器。概率方法可以解释与地震相关的不同程度的损害以及每种地震场景发生的概率，该损害模拟器将为参与管理的不同参与者提供决策支持工具。地震风险。