Impacts of climate change, extreme weather events and management activities on managed conifer and deciduous forests

气候变化、极端天气事件和管理活动对管理针叶林和落叶林的影响

• 批准号: RGPIN-2015-06108
• 负责人: Arain, Muhammad
• 金额: $ 2.99万
• 依托单位: McMaster University
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2019-01-01 至 2020-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=688273
• 关键词: Impacts; climate; change; extreme; weather

Forests provide numerous environmental, ecological, social and economic benefits to society. A large portion of forests in eastern Canada and US are plantation or managed forests of different ages that absorb atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) to offset some of the fossil fuel emissions. These forests have been a large carbon (C) sink over the last many decades due to recovery from past harvesting, agricultural abandonment and afforestation. However, recent studies indicate that they are being affected by changes in regional climate and extreme weather events such as drought, floods and heat waves. Climate warming has accelerated the hydrological cycle. Changes in forest hydrological cycle alter its growth and soil and plant nutrient cycling, which feeds-back on both carbon and water cycles and regional climate. There is an urgent need to determine the impact of environmental changes on carbon, water and nutrient cycling in forest ecosystems --in particular in different-age plantation and managed stands to fully understand their functioning and response to future climate change and extreme weather events. We have established four flux tower sites, including three conifer age-sequence (75, 40, 12 year old) afforested stands and a managed deciduous (>80 year old) stand. All four stands are located in Long Point Region Conservation Authority watershed.***This proposal will investigate the impact of changes in forest hydrology and nutrient cycling on the carbon sequestration potential of three different-age conifer stands and a deciduous forest and how these forests will respond to future climate change and extreme weather events. It will also focus on to further develop terrestrial ecosystem and hydrological models (e.g. C and N coupled Canadian Land Surface Scheme - Canadian Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (CLASS-CTEM+N) used in Canadian Earth System Model and a regional hydrological model (MIKE-SHE) to explore the biophysical, biogeochemical and hydrological feedbacks in forest ecosystems. Long-term eddy covariance fluxes and regional hydrological data will be combined in these ecosystem and hydrological models to explore climate change and extreme weather impacts. This Proposal will also investigate the economic attractiveness and carbon sequestration related benefits of conifer afforestation across Canada using CLASS-CTEM+N generated forest growth estimates for various Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, AR5) climate change scenarios. Quantification of the responses of managed forests to climate changes will help environmental planners to develop adaptation strategies for their growth and survival. Implementation of CLASS-CTEM+N model in Canadian Earth System Model will provide an assessment tool to generate scenarios of future climate for policy development by the Federal Government and IPCC and help Canada meet its international obligations.**

森林为社会提供了众多的环境、生态、社会和经济效益。加拿大东部和美国的大部分森林是不同年龄的人工林或管理森林，它们吸收大气中的二氧化碳（CO2）以抵消部分化石燃料的排放。由于过去的采伐、农业废弃和植树造林的恢复，这些森林在过去几十年中一直是一个巨大的碳汇。然而，最近的研究表明，它们正在受到区域气候变化和干旱、洪水和热浪等极端天气事件的影响。气候变暖加速了水文循环。森林水文循环的变化改变了其生长以及土壤和植物养分循环，从而反馈碳和水循环以及区域气候。迫切需要确定环境变化对森林生态系统碳、水和养分循环的影响，特别是不同年龄的人工林和管理林分，以充分了解其功能以及对未来气候变化和极端天气事件的反应。我们已经建立了四个通量塔场地，包括三个针叶树龄序列（75、40、12 年）绿化林和一个管理落叶（>80 年）林。所有四个林分均位于长点地区保护局分水岭。***本提案将调查森林水文和养分循环变化对三个不同年龄的针叶林和落叶林碳封存潜力的影响，以及这些森林如何将应对未来的气候变化和极端天气事件。它还将专注于进一步开发陆地生态系统和水文模型（例如加拿大地球系统模型中使用的C和N耦合加拿大地表方案 - 加拿大陆地生态系统模型（CLASS-CTEM+N）和区域水文模型（MIKE-SHE） ）探索森林生态系统中的生物物理、生物地球化学和水文反馈，将在这些生态系统和水文模型中结合长期涡流协方差通量和区域水文数据，以探索气候变化和该提案还将使用 CLASS-CTEM+N 对各种政府间气候变化专门委员会 (IPCC、AR5) 气候变化情景进行的森林生长估计来调查加拿大各地针叶树造林的经济吸引力和碳固存相关效益。管理森林对气候变化的反应将有助于环境规划者制定适应森林生长和生存的战略。在加拿大地球系统模型中实施 CLASS-CTEM+N 模型将为联邦政府和 IPCC 制定政策提供生成未来气候情景的评估工具，并帮助加拿大履行其国际义务。 **