Construction and analysis of mechanistic, predictive, and empirically testable models in ecology and ecotoxicology via rigorous chemical and physical laws

通过严格的化学和物理定律构建和分析生态学和生态毒理学中的机械、预测和经验可测试模型

• 批准号: RGPIN-2015-04581
• 负责人: Wang, Hao
• 金额: $ 1.02万
• 依托单位: University of Alberta
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2019-01-01 至 2020-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=675393
• 关键词: Construction; analysis; mechanistic; predictive; empirically

My main research objective is to understand the role of nutrients in the growth and competition of herbivores and biodegradation of bacteria, and to apply these new fundamental understandings to control deleterious populations and toxic organic matter, including species invasions and ecotoxicology. Control of invasive species has been an extremely important topic globally because the economic effects of invasive species are enormous (estimated global damages at $1.4 trillion annually according to the United Nations Environment Programme). Industry-induced pollution has been a severe environmental problem around the world as the US Environmental Protection Agency and the Canadian Council of Ministers of the Environment have indicated. To guide experiments and management for solving these world-wide issues, mathematical modeling plays a pivotal and necessary role by connecting the known dynamical components, which usually fit together in complex nonlinear ways.****My work in mathematical biology has evolved from cyclic population dynamics to fundamental stoichiometric modeling and analysis, and then to applications of stoichiometric theory and the spread of infectious diseases. In nutrient deficient environments, the consideration of nutrient cycling, or stoichiometry, can be essential for population models. I plan to advance the stoichiometric modeling into a more mechanistic level, which may lead to some fundamental laws in theoretical biology. Its application to species invasions can guide the government towards improved management policies. To study the impacts of abiotic factors, such as nutrient and turbidity, on key biological responses is essential for determining the competition result of native and invasive species. The other application of the stoichiometric concept is ecotoxicology. I will construct a stoichiometric biodegradation model to estimate methane production from tailings ponds and end pit lakes, generated by the oil sands industry, in Alberta. An associated project is the risk assessment of oil sands pollution on the persistence and biodiversity of an ecosystem in Alberta, which is a joint project with the Alberta government. Another separate project is focused on the spread of infectious diseases including their transmission modes and rates.****I propose an integrated program of mathematical, computational, and experimental studies that will provide a new generation of mechanistic models with chemical and physical constraints. Most mathematical models are non-smooth dynamical systems which may generate novel dynamics and bifurcations. Analytical techniques include local and global stability analysis, bifurcation analysis, theory of monotone dynamical systems, persistence theory, perturbation theory, sensitivity analysis, wavelet analysis, etc. Furthermore, these mechanistic models will be challenged and calibrated by experimental data.**

我的主要研究目的是了解营养素在草食动物的生长和竞争和细菌生物降解中的作用，并将这些新的基本理解应用于控制缺失的人群和有毒有机物，包括物种入侵和生态毒理学。在全球范围内，对入侵物种的控制一直是极其重要的话题，因为侵入性物种的经济影响是巨大的（根据联合国环境计划，每年估计全球损失为1.4万亿美元）。由于美国环境保护署和加拿大环境部长委员会表明，行业引起的污染一直是世界上一个严重的环境问题。为了指导实验和管理来解决这些世界范围内的问题，数学建模通过连接已知的动态组件来扮演关键和必要的作用，这些动态组件通常以复杂的非线性方式结合在一起。在营养不足的环境中，考虑营养循环或化学计量的考虑对于人口模型至关重要。我计划将化学计量模型提高到更机械的水平，这可能会导致一些理论生物学中的一些基本定律。它对物种入侵的应用可以指导政府提高管理政策。为了研究非生物因素（例如养分和浊度）对关键生物学反应的影响，对于确定天然和入侵物种的竞争结果至关重要。化学计量概念的另一个应用是生态毒理学。我将构建一个化学计量的生物降解模型，以估算艾伯塔省油砂行业产生的尾矿池塘和端湖的产生。一个相关的项目是对艾伯塔省生态系统持续性和生物多样性的油砂污染的风险评估，这是与艾伯塔省政府的共同项目。另一个单独的项目集中于传染病的传播，包括其传播模式和速率。大多数数学模型是非平滑动态系统，可能会产生新型的动力学和分叉。分析技术包括局部和全球稳定性分析，分叉分析，单调动态系统理论，持久理论，扰动理论，敏感性分析，小波分析等。此外，这些机械模型将受到实验数据的挑战和校准。** **