Observationally-constrained climate projections following the Paris Agreement

《巴黎协定》后受观测限制的气候预测

基本信息

批准号：
RGPIN-2017-04043
负责人：
Gillett, Nathan
金额：
$ 1.63万
依托单位：
University of Victoria
依托单位国家：
加拿大
项目类别：
Discovery Grants Program - Individual
财政年份：
2018
资助国家：
加拿大
起止时间：
2018-01-01 至 2019-12-31
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=651899
关键词：
Observationally constrained climate projections following

项目摘要

The Paris Agreement, which recently came into force, commits signatories to ‘holding the increase in global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'. Since carbon dioxide is the dominant greenhouse gas, and since a certain total amount of carbon dioxide emissions gives the same amount of warming irrespective of whether it is emitted all at once or over a long period, a warming threshold of 1.5°C can be associated with a particular total amount of carbon dioxide emissions, or carbon budget. Knowing the maximum amount of carbon dioxide which can be emitted while having a good chance of limiting global mean temperature to below the 1.5°C and 2.0°C thresholds is key to planning climate mitigation strategies and fulfilling the commitments made in the Paris Agreement. ******Carbon budgets presented in the last report of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were based directly on simulated emissions in all available climate models, and indicated that the best estimate of the 1.5°C budget would be exceeded in less than ten years at current emissions levels, with a chance that this budget has already been exceeded. However, we know that historical carbon dioxide emissions, in conjunction with other climate drivers, have led to only about 1°C global warming to date. Further, we know that on average the climate models considered in the last IPCC report on average warm more than observations. Can we use observations of past climate change to obtain better projections of future climate change? A number of ways of using observations to constrain projections have been proposed, including scaling simulated climate change up or down to best match observed changes, weighting models based on how well they agree with observations, or using observations to screen climate models in or out. This project will explore a range of approaches to observationally-constraining climate projections, with a focus on obtaining improved observationally-constrained carbon budgets and projections of global mean temperature. The application of observational constraints to other variables, such as regional temperature changes, rainfall changes and sea ice changes, will also be considered.

最近生效的《巴黎一致性》签名为“将全球温度的升高保持在2°C以下。是与特定总量二氧化碳排放量或碳预算相关的长时间的主要温室气体是在ON上发出还是很长一段时间。 °2.0°C阈值是计划气候缓解策略和巴黎协议中的委员会的关键。可用的气候模型，并表明对1.5°C预算的最佳估计已超过，但是，我们知道，历史碳二氧化碳排放量与其他气候驱动因素相结合，导致了迄今为止1°C的全球变暖知道，平均在TOCC端口中的气候模型比观察到了过去的气候。根据遵守或使用观测来筛选气候模型的方式，该项目将利用观测到构成气候的观测，重点是改善观察的碳预算和全球平均温度的投影。温度变化，降雨变化和海冰变化也将被考虑。