Sustainability-oriented Water Resources Allocation, Management, and Planning

以可持续发展为导向的水资源分配、管理和规划

• 批准号: RGPIN-2014-05740
• 负责人: Elshorbagy, Amin
• 金额: $ 1.6万
• 依托单位: University of Saskatchewan
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2017
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2017-01-01 至 2018-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=636383
• 关键词: Sustainability; oriented; Water; Resources; Allocation

Hydrologists and water resources engineers deal with two types of mathematical models to address water resources issues related to planning and management. The first type is hydrological models that simulate the natural hydrological cycle to establish the rainfall-runoff relationship and answer the question of what happens to rain. The second type is water resources systems models that establish the relationship between water supply and demand and answer the question of what happens to runoff. Typically, hydrological models lack the representation of human intervention and water uses and withdrawals, whereas water resources systems models do not consider the natural hydrological processes. Such disconnection impedes the important task of evaluating how natural hydrological and meteorological changes affect the society, and thus, make any proposed adaptation strategies unrealistic.In this research a modeling framework that connects both hydrological modeling (HM) with water resources systems modeling (WRSM) is proposed. Furthermore, the WRSM will be conducted in an integrated fashion to link the water resources system and water allocation decisions for various water uses (e.g., irrigation, hydropower,...) with socioeconomic considerations, such as cost of production, food prices, and revenue generated. Environmental considerations, such as streamflow requirements to support healthy ecosystem will be also considered. The expected outcome of this proposed research program is a modeling framework that allows for Sustainability-oriented Water Allocation, Management, and Planning (SWAMP). SWAMP will be developed for the Saskatchewan River Basin (SRB) as an ideal case study of a river basin extending over three prairie provinces (Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba), and subject to an inter-provincial water apportionment agreement. SWAMP will allow for the assessment of the availability, as well as the allocation scenarios, of water resources for competing users under varying conditions. The varying conditions could be natural (climate change) or due to human interventions (e.g., changes of societal perceptions of the value of water). This novel framework and concept promotes and allows for a paradigm shift from studying traditional water budgets to quantifying value-based water budgets; i.e., balance of water and water-dependent commodities and services.SWAMP includes prediction of runoff at the headwaters of the SRB, including those originating from the Rocky Mountains, and routing them through the water resources systems of various water reservoirs and channels, taking into effect various consumptive and non-consumptive water uses for economic, social, and environmental purposes. SWAMP will be an easy-to-understand, rigorous, and decision aid-oriented modeling framework that can be a tool facilitating planning through discussions and negotiations among various stakeholders. SWAMP will be capable of: (1) simulating the water resources system in the SRB under various climatic conditions; water availability scenarios; water, food, and energy pricing; and environmental requirements; (2) analyzing the interrelationships among the various hydrological, environmental, and socioeconomic factors in the SRB, and showing the opportunity value, rather than the cost, of water uses; (3) analyzing the impact of possible time-varying socioeconomic change and adaptation measures; and (4) studying the impacts of different water availability scenarios on the water allocation priorities, infrastructure upgrade decisions, and inter-provincial water apportionment in light of water “societal value”. This research will show the importance of including water as a key variable in economic development and strategic planning at the regional level.

水文学家和水资源工程师处理两种类型的数学模型，以解决与计划和管理有关的水资源问题。第一种类型是模拟自然氢循环以建立降雨跑关系的水文模型，并回答了降雨发生的问题。第二种类型是水资源系统模型，这些模型建立了供水与需求之间的关系，并回答了径流发生了什么问题。通常，水文模型缺乏人力干预以及用水和戒断的表示，而水资源系统模型不考虑自然的水文过程。这种断开连接阻碍了评估自然水文和气象变化如何影响社会的重要任务，从而使任何提出的适应策略不现实。在本研究中，提出了将两种水文建模（HM）与水资源系统建模（WRSM）联系起来的建模框架。此外，WRSM将以综合的方式进行，以将水资源系统和水分配决策联系起来，以将各种用水（例如，灌溉，水力发电，...）与社会经济方面的考虑因素联系起来，例如生产成本，食品价格和产生的收入。还将考虑环境考虑，例如支持健康生态系统的水流要求。该提出的研究计划的预期结果是一个建模框架，可实现面向可持续性的水分配，管理和计划（SWAMP）。将为萨斯喀彻温河流域（SRB）开发沼泽，作为对三个草原政策（艾伯塔省，萨斯喀彻温省和曼尼托巴省）延伸的理想案例研究，并遵守了一项省水间水分配协议。沼泽将允许评估在不同条件下为竞争用户提供水资源的可用性以及分配方案。各种条件可能是自然的（气候变化）或由于人类干预措施（例如，社会对水价值的看法的变化）。这个新颖的框架和概念可以促进并允许从研究传统水预算转变为量化基于价值的水预算；即，水与水依赖的商品和服务的平衡包括SWAMP在SRB的源头上预测径流，包括起源于落基山脉的径流，以及它们通过各种水资源和渠道的水资源系统，以实施各种消费和非耗水的水，用于经济，社会，社会和环境目的。沼泽将是一个易于理解，严格且决策为辅助的建模框架，可以通过各种沼泽之间的讨论和谈判来促进计划的工具：（1）在各种气候条件下模拟SRB中的水资源系统；用水场景；水，食物和能源定价；和环境要求； （2）分析SRB中各种氢化，环境和社会经济因素之间的相互关系，并显示出用水的机会价值而不是成本； （3）分析可能发生时变的社会经济变化和适应措施的影响； （4）研究不同的水可用性方案对水分配优先级，基础设施升级决策和省水间水分配的影响。这项研究将表明，将水作为区域一级经济发展和战略规划的关键变量的重要性。