Capture-recapture modelling of population dynamics.

种群动态的捕获-再捕获模型。

• 批准号: 165058-2012
• 负责人: Schwarz, Carl
• 金额: $ 1.09万
• 依托单位: Simon Fraser University
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2015
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2015-01-01 至 2016-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=569525
• 关键词: Capture; recapture; modelling; population; dynamics.

This research involves the use of statistics and mathematics in studying the dynamics of animal populations and other ecological problems. The research is motivated by real problems encountered by ecologists. Much of the research involves capture-recapture experiments. In these experiments, animals are captured, tagged, released and then subsequently recaptured. The pattern of captures and recaptures enables the researcher to estimate survival rates and the number of animals present in the population. Two of my research questions are: - Studying the population dynamics of grizzly bears in southeast British Columbia. Bears leave hair samples at bait stations. The DNA typing of these samples is equivalent to capturing and recapturing the animals. Spatially-explicit capture-recapture models will be developed to account for lack of complete mixing across the landscape between sampling events. - Studying the changes in herring migration in the Pacific coast of British Columbia. Herring have been tagged and recovered since the early 1930's on their spawning grounds. The tag returns can be used to estimate interchange rates among spawning areas. Bayesian P-spline and hierarchical models will be used to model changes in interchange rates over time.

这项研究涉及使用统计学和数学来研究动物种群动态和其他生态问题。这项研究的动机是生态学家遇到的实际问题。许多研究涉及捕获-再捕获实验。在这些实验中，动物被捕获、标记、释放，然后又被重新捕获。捕获和重新捕获的模式使研究人员能够估计存活率和种群中动物的数量。 我的两个研究问题是： - 研究不列颠哥伦比亚省东南部灰熊的种群动态。熊在诱饵站留下毛发样本。这些样本的 DNA 分型相当于捕获和重新捕获动物。将开发空间明确的捕获-再捕获模型，以解决采样事件之间景观中缺乏完全混合的问题。 - 研究不列颠哥伦比亚省太平洋沿岸鲱鱼迁徙的变化。自 1930 年代初以来，鲱鱼就在产卵地被标记并被回收。标签返回可用于估计产卵区域之间的交换率。贝叶斯 P 样条和分层模型将用于模拟汇率随时间的变化。