The Divorce Decline and Relationship Stability: 1970-2019

离婚率下降和关系稳定性：1970-2019

• 批准号: 10741358
• 负责人: Christine R. Schwartz
• 金额: $ 15.55万
• 依托单位: UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN-MADISON
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2023
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2023-09-18 至 2025-08-31
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/10741358
• 关键词: Address; Adult; Affect; Age; Area; Child; Child Welfare; Data; Data Set; Data Sources; Divorce; Education; Elderly; Ethnic Origin; Event History Analysis; Family; Family Demographies; Goals; Growth; Health; Health and Retirement Study; Income; Individual; Inequality; Knowledge; Life; Living Arrangement; Marital separation; Marriage; Marriage Ages; Measurement; Morphologic artifacts; Needs Assessment; Older Population; Parenthood Status; Parents; Pattern; Personal Satisfaction; Population; Population Distributions; Psyche structure; Race; Reporting; Research; Series; Source; Standardization; Subgroup; Surveys; Time; Time trend; Uncertainty; United States; Update; Vital Statistics; Woman; aged; cohort; college; data quality; falls; interest; multiple data sources; optimism; population health; population survey; programs; public health relevance; sex; socioeconomics; trend; trend analysis; welfare

Title: The Divorce Decline and Relationship Stability: 1970-2019 ABSTRACT/PROJECT SUMMARY To assess fundamental questions such as “what is happening to the family?” in the United States, we need to understand basic trends in family patterns. An area in which there are gaps in our knowledge—but is of deep importance to individuals and the public—is trends in divorce and relationship stability. Issues of data quality, the rise of cohabitation and the increasing selectivity of marriage, changes in population composition, and diverging patterns by education and race/ethnicity complicate analyses of trends. The primary goal of this research is to determine the extent to which the observed decline of divorce in the U.S. since the late 1970s should be interpreted as evidence of increased coresidential relationship stability. To address this question, we combine two data sets that contain information on marriage and cohabitation entry and dissolution that together avoid many of the pitfalls of prior data sources; estimate the extent to which changes in selection into marriage and population composition explain trends; incorporate the often overlooked older- population who now constitute important contributors to dissolution rates; and examine differentials by education, race/ethnicity, and parenthood status. Given that even recent research on divorce and marital dissolution finds, on average, negative associations with adult and child well-being (e.g., Kim, 2011; Leopold, 2018), should the decline in divorce rates since the late 1970s be interpreted as a cause for optimism about the stability of committed romantic relationships in the U.S.? There are several reasons to doubt this interpretation. First, recent research has raised the possibility that the divorce decline is an artifact of data problems and changes in population composition (Kennedy & Ruggles, 2014) rather than a true increase in relationship stability. Second, the divorce rate does not capture other kinds of relationship dissolution such as marital separation and cohabitation breakup. Thus, an examination of divorce rates alone underestimates the dissolution of coresidential unions. Third, there are sizeable differences in marital dissolution by education, race/ethnicity, and parenthood status. Marital dissolution has only declined for women with a college degree and not for those with less education (Martin, 2006), and trends also differ by race/ethnicity (Raley et al., 2015). But combined union dissolution trends for coresidential unions by education, race/ethnicity, and parenthood status have not been estimated to our knowledge. Our research addresses each of these issues. The results will allow us to assess whether the decline in divorce observed in past studies can be interpreted as evidence of a decline in relationship instability, and if so, the extent to which this is shared across key population subgroups in the U.S.

标题：离婚率下降和关系稳定性：1970-2019 摘要/项目摘要 为了评估“美国家庭发生了什么？”等基本问题，我们需要 了解家庭模式的基本趋势，我们在这一领域的知识存在差距，但意义深远。 对个人和公众的重要性是离婚趋势和关系稳定性问题。 同居的兴起和婚姻选择性的增加、人口构成的变化，以及 教育和种族/民族的不同模式使趋势分析变得复杂。 这项研究的目的是确定自 20 世纪末以来观察到的美国离婚率下降的程度。 20 世纪 70 年代应该被解释为同居关系稳定性增强的证据。 这个问题，我们结合了两个包含婚姻和同居信息的数据集， 分解，共同避免了先前数据源的许多陷阱；估计变化的程度； 在婚姻选择和人口构成中解释趋势； 现在对溶出率有重要贡献的人群；并通过以下方式检查差异； 教育、种族/民族和生育状况。 鉴于即使是最近关于离婚和婚姻破裂的研究也发现，平均而言，两者之间存在负面关联 与成人和儿童的福祉（例如，Kim，2011；Leopold，2018），如果离婚率下降， 20 世纪 70 年代末，这被解释为人们对 20 世纪 70 年代承诺的浪漫关系的稳定性持乐观态度。 美国？有几个理由怀疑这种解释：首先，最近的研究提出了这种可能性。 离婚率下降是数据问题和人口构成变化的结果（Kennedy & Ruggles，2014），而不是关系稳定性的真正提高。 其次，离婚率并没有体现出来。 其他类型的关系解除，例如婚姻分居和同居破裂。 仅仅考察离婚率就低估了同居婚姻的解体。 教育程度、种族/民族和婚姻状况在婚姻破裂方面存在很大差异。 仅具有大学学位的女性解散率下降，而受教育程度较低的女性则没有（马丁， 2006），并且趋势也因种族/族裔而异（Raley 等人，2015）。 我们尚未对按教育程度、种族/族裔和父母身份划分的同居婚姻进行估计 知识。 我们的研究解决了这些问题，结果将使我们能够评估是否出现下降。 过去研究中观察到的离婚可以被解释为关系不稳定程度下降的证据，如果是这样， 美国主要人口亚群的这种情况的共享程度