Immigration and Fertility in the U.S.

美国的移民和生育率

• 批准号: 8682259
• 负责人: EMILIO ALBERTO PARRADO
• 金额: $ 16.6万
• 依托单位: UNIVERSITY OF PENNSYLVANIA
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2014
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2014-09-01 至 2017-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/8682259
• 关键词: Accounting; Adult; Affect; Age; Age-Specific Fertility Rates; Asians; Assimilations; Attention; Behavior; Birth; Categories; Censuses; Child; Data Sources; Development; Economic Recession; Ethnic Origin; Ethnic group; Europe; Failure; Family; Fertility; Fertility Rates; Future; Growth; Hispanics; Immigrant; Immigration; Labor Forces; Link; Measures; Methods; Mexican; Minority; National origin; Not Hispanic or Latino; Pattern; Policies; Population; Population Growth; Population Projection; Race; Reporting; Retirement; Role; Social Security; Source; Structure; System; Techniques; Testing; Time; United States; Variant; Woman; Work; aging population; child bearing; experience; migration; mortality; public health relevance; racial and ethnic; stem; young adult

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): Given the relatively low fertility and mortality levels prevailing in the United States, the future growth and structure of the population will be increasingly affected by immigration. This immigration effect stems from two mechanisms: net migration and the fertility of the foreign-born. While considerable attention has been devoted to the former, immigrants' fertility contribution remains poorly understood. This is problematic because as the immigrant population grows, national fertility patterns will by definition be increasingly determined by their behavior. Between 1990 and 2010 the share of U.S. children born to immigrant women increased from 16 to 23%. Today, without the fertility of immigrants there would be nearly one million fewer U.S. births annually. This impact highlights the need for systematic analyses of immigrant fertility, including the development of demographic techniques that can clearly separate the population growth contribution of immigration from its fertility effet. Particularly problematic is the lack of understanding of the interaction between immigration and fertility timing. Standard demographic techniques generally assume the two components are disconnected. However, studies have highlighted that migration can significantly distort the age-pattern of childbearing. Failure to account for the impact of immigration on the timing of births results in a substantial overestimation of period levels of immigrant fertility. Since age-specific fertility rates are a key component of population projections, this overestimation distorts projections of the size, age, and ethno-racial structure of national populations. Thus, our specifi objectives are to 1) Measure the contribution of immigrants to U.S. fertility for the period 2000-2010 and its variation over time and by ethnic group, distinguishing between Hispanics, Asians, and non-Hispanic blacks and whites; 2) Separate, within racial/ethnic categories, national origin groups and measure their fertility contribution elaborating on the role that changing immigrant national origin has on U.S. fertility; 3) Assess the applicability of standard fertility measures t the immigrant experience and its variation over the period and across ethno-racial groups. Specifically, we will assess the role of tempo distortions resulting from immigration in affecting standard period fertility measures; 4) Develop and test fertility measures that explicitly take int account the dynamics of migration to measure the fertility of immigrants over time and across ethno-racial groups. Specifically, this implies recognizing that births to immigrant women occur before and after migration; separating the two components is necessary to measure the fertility- specific contribution of immigration; and 5) Incorporate these measures into population projection methods and assess their impact on predicted population change for 2000-2010. We will also generate a new set of population projections through 2050 and compare them to Census estimates.

描述（申请人提供）：鉴于美国普遍较低的生育率和死亡率，未来人口增长和结构将越来越受到移民的影响。这种移民效应源于两个机制：净移民和外国出生者的生育率。尽管前者受到了相当多的关注，但移民对生育率的贡献仍然知之甚少。这是有问题的，因为随着移民人口的增长，国家生育模式将越来越多地由他们的行为决定。 1990 年至 2010 年间，美国移民妇女所生孩子的比例从 16% 增加到 23%。今天，如果没有移民的生育能力，美国每年的出生人数将减少近百万。这种影响凸显了对移民生育率进行系统分析的必要性，包括开发人口统计技术，将移民对人口增长的贡献与其生育效应明确区分开来。尤其存在的问题是缺乏对移民与生育时间之间相互作用的了解。标准人口统计技术通常假设这两个组成部分是不相关的。然而，研究强调，人口流动会严重扭曲生育年龄模式。未能考虑移民对出生时间的影响会导致移民生育率水平的大幅高估。由于特定年龄 生育率是人口预测的一个关键组成部分，这种高估扭曲了对国家人口规模、年龄和民族种族结构的预测。因此，我们的具体目标是 1) 衡量 2000-2010 年期间移民对美国生育率的贡献及其随时间和种族群体的变化，区分西班牙裔、亚洲人和非西班牙裔黑人和白人； 2）在种族/族裔类别内区分国籍群体，并衡量他们的生育率贡献，详细说明移民国籍的变化对美国生育率的影响； 3) 评估标准生育率衡量标准对移民经历的适用性及其在一段时间内和跨民族种族群体的变化。具体来说，我们将评估移民造成的节奏扭曲对标准时期生育率指标的影响； 4) 制定和测试明确考虑移民动态的生育率衡量标准，以衡量移民随时间推移和跨民族种族群体的生育率。具体来说，这意味着承认移民妇女的生育发生在移民之前和之后；有必要将这两个组成部分分开，以衡量移民对生育率的具体贡献； 5) 将这些措施纳入人口预测方法，并评估其对 2000-2010 年预测人口变化的影响。我们还将生成一组到 2050 年的新人口预测，并将其与人口普查估计值进行比较。