Immigration and Fertility in the U.S.

美国的移民和生育率

• 批准号: 8682259
• 负责人: EMILIO ALBERTO PARRADO
• 金额: $ 16.6万
• 依托单位: UNIVERSITY OF PENNSYLVANIA
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2014
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2014-09-01 至 2017-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/8682259
• 关键词: Accounting; Adult; Affect; Age; Age-Specific Fertility Rates; Asians; Assimilations; Attention; Behavior; Birth; Categories; Censuses; Child; Data Sources; Development; Economic Recession; Ethnic Origin; Ethnic group; Europe; Failure; Family; Fertility; Fertility Rates; Future; Growth; Hispanics; Immigrant; Immigration; Labor Forces; Link; Measures; Methods; Mexican; Minority; National origin; Not Hispanic or Latino; Pattern; Policies; Population; Population Growth; Population Projection; Race; Reporting; Retirement; Role; Social Security; Source; Structure; System; Techniques; Testing; Time; United States; Variant; Woman; Work; aging population; child bearing; experience; migration; mortality; public health relevance; racial and ethnic; stem; young adult

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): Given the relatively low fertility and mortality levels prevailing in the United States, the future growth and structure of the population will be increasingly affected by immigration. This immigration effect stems from two mechanisms: net migration and the fertility of the foreign-born. While considerable attention has been devoted to the former, immigrants' fertility contribution remains poorly understood. This is problematic because as the immigrant population grows, national fertility patterns will by definition be increasingly determined by their behavior. Between 1990 and 2010 the share of U.S. children born to immigrant women increased from 16 to 23%. Today, without the fertility of immigrants there would be nearly one million fewer U.S. births annually. This impact highlights the need for systematic analyses of immigrant fertility, including the development of demographic techniques that can clearly separate the population growth contribution of immigration from its fertility effet. Particularly problematic is the lack of understanding of the interaction between immigration and fertility timing. Standard demographic techniques generally assume the two components are disconnected. However, studies have highlighted that migration can significantly distort the age-pattern of childbearing. Failure to account for the impact of immigration on the timing of births results in a substantial overestimation of period levels of immigrant fertility. Since age-specific fertility rates are a key component of population projections, this overestimation distorts projections of the size, age, and ethno-racial structure of national populations. Thus, our specifi objectives are to 1) Measure the contribution of immigrants to U.S. fertility for the period 2000-2010 and its variation over time and by ethnic group, distinguishing between Hispanics, Asians, and non-Hispanic blacks and whites; 2) Separate, within racial/ethnic categories, national origin groups and measure their fertility contribution elaborating on the role that changing immigrant national origin has on U.S. fertility; 3) Assess the applicability of standard fertility measures t the immigrant experience and its variation over the period and across ethno-racial groups. Specifically, we will assess the role of tempo distortions resulting from immigration in affecting standard period fertility measures; 4) Develop and test fertility measures that explicitly take int account the dynamics of migration to measure the fertility of immigrants over time and across ethno-racial groups. Specifically, this implies recognizing that births to immigrant women occur before and after migration; separating the two components is necessary to measure the fertility- specific contribution of immigration; and 5) Incorporate these measures into population projection methods and assess their impact on predicted population change for 2000-2010. We will also generate a new set of population projections through 2050 and compare them to Census estimates.

描述（由申请人提供）：鉴于美国普遍存在的生育率和死亡率相对较低，人口的未来增长和结构将受到移民的越来越多的影响。这种移民效应源于两种机制：净迁移和外国出生的生育能力。尽管已大量关注前者，但移民的生育能力贡献仍然很少了解。这是有问题的，因为随着移民人口的增长，国家的生育模式将越来越多地取决于其行为。在1990年至2010年之间，移民妇女所生子的份额从16％增加到23％。如今，没有移民的生育能力，每年将减少美国出生的近一百万。这一影响凸显了对移民生育能力进行系统分析的需求，包括发展人口技术的发展，这些技术可以清楚地将移民人口增长的贡献与其生育能力分开。特别有问题的是缺乏对移民和生育时机之间相互作用的了解。标准人口统计学技术通常假定两个组成部分是断开连接的。然而，研究强调，迁移可能会严重扭曲生育的年龄图案。未能说明移民对出生时间的影响会导致对移民生育能力的高估。自针对年龄特定以来 生育率是人口预测的关键组成部分，这种高估会扭曲国家人口的规模，年龄和种族种族结构的预测。因此，我们的特殊目标是1）衡量移民对2000 - 2010年期间美国生育能力的贡献，以及随着时间的流逝和族裔的变化，区分西班牙裔，亚洲人和非西班牙裔黑人和白人； 2）在种族/族裔类别中，国民来源群体和衡量其生育能力的贡献阐述了改变移民国籍在美国生育能力方面的作用； 3）评估标准生育能力的适用性，以衡量移民经验及其在整个种族种族群体中的变化。具体而言，我们将评估移民在影响标准时期生育率措施中导致的节奏扭曲的作用； 4）制定和测试生育率的措施，这些措施明确考虑了迁移的动态，以衡量移民的生育能力，随着时间的流逝和整个民族种族群体的生育能力。具体而言，这意味着认识到移民前后移民妇女的出生。分开两个组成部分是为了衡量移民的生育特定贡献； 5）将这些措施纳入人口投影方法，并评估其对2000 - 2010年人口变化的影响。我们还将在2050年之前生成一套新的人口预测，并将其与人口普查估计进行比较。