On the Edge: Dengue and Climate

边缘：登革热和气候

• 批准号: 8894365
• 负责人: Kacey C Ernst
• 金额: $ 56.41万
• 依托单位: UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2012
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2012-09-01 至 2017-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/8894365
• 关键词: Adult; Aedes; Affect; Age; Area; Arizona; Automobile Driving; Behavior; Blood; Cities; Climate; Collection; Communicable Diseases; Communities; Country; Coupled; Culicidae; Data; Dengue; Dengue Virus; Disease; Disease Outbreaks; Disease Vectors; Dryness; Environmental Risk Factor; Fertility; Future; Genes; Geographic Locations; Goals; Heating; Household; Human; Humidity; Infection; Length; Longevity; Maps; Measures; Mediating; Mexican; Mexico; Modeling; Molecular; Outcome; Parasites; Play; Population; Population Density; Recording of previous events; Relative (related person); Reporting; Rest; Risk; Role; Sampling; Seasons; Side; Site; Stretching; Structure; Surveys; Temperature; Testing; Texas; Translating; United States; Virus; Water; Yellow Fever; aged; chikungunya; climate change; density; design; disease transmission; disorder risk; experience; feeding; information gathering; innovation; meetings; parity; residence; social; tool; transmission process; trend; urban area; vector

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): Aedes aegypti mosquitoes are the primary vector for dengue, yellow fever and chikungunya. The vector is present in most urban communities stretching along the U.S.-Mexico border yet dengue transmission has only been noted in two U.S. border communities in Texas, notably Brownsville and Laredo, TX. While many argue that this is a result of different social factors across the border, this fails to explain the lack of transmission in some communities in northern Mexico, notably Nogales, Sonora. Nogales is a large urban area on the Mexican side of the border with large vector populations and a constant influx of people from dengue endemic areas yet no local cases have been recorded. Vector presence alone is not sufficient to cause disease transmission; vectors must also survive long enough to blood feed and become infected, have the parasite develop and feed again, transmitting the virus. Climatic influences on the lifespan and behavior of Ae. aegypti may also influence the risk of dengue transmission in this region which lies at the boundary of both virus and vector. Geographic areas such as this, at the edge of the range of disease and vector, are at greatest risk of emergence and reemergence of infectious diseases. We will assess the relative age structure of Ae. aegypti populations in nine cities with varying climates in the southern United States and Sonora, MX by trapping and molecularly determining the ages of adult Ae. aegypti during four mosquito seasons. We expect that cities with extremely dry and hot conditions will have younger Ae. aegypti populations. Cities with reported dengue transmission we expect to have Ae. aegypti that are on average younger when taking their first blood meal than cities without transmission. To determine how the age of Ae. aegypti population vary over a finer spatial scale, we will sample adults in 150 households in Hermosillo, Mexico; a city with a history of dengue outbreaks. Additionally, we will survey the households for potential social and environmental factors that mediate the relationship between climate and longevity. We expect to find significant variability across households. Residences with older mosquitoes will have more vegetation, fewer barriers to mosquito access and indoor resting sites, no competing vector species and no control measures. From the information gathered in the first two objectives, we will construct a model to predict the likelihood of the expansion of Ae. aegypti populations that survive long enough to transmit dengue and thus changes in risk of dengue transmission. We expect that models of risk of dengue under climate change scenarios will decrease in areas that surpass a heat and dryness threshold and will increase in populations with increasing moisture.

描述（由申请人提供）：埃及埃及蚊子是登革热，黄热病和基孔肯尼亚的主要载体。该向量存在于大多数城市社区沿着美墨边境延伸的大多数城市社区，但登革热的传播仅在德克萨斯州的两个美国边境社区中被注意到，尤其是德克萨斯州的布朗斯维尔和拉雷多。尽管许多人认为这是整个边境社会因素的结果，但这无法解释墨西哥北部某些社区的传播，尤其是诺加莱斯（Nogales），索诺拉（Sonora）。 Nogales是边界墨西哥一侧的大型城市地区，有大量的矢量种群，并且不断涌入登革热流行地区的人，但尚未记录当地病例。仅矢量存在不足以引起疾病传播。载体还必须存活足够长的时间才能血液进食并感染，使寄生虫再次发展并喂养，从而传播病毒。气候对AE的寿命和行为的影响。埃及也可能影响该地区登革热传播的风险，该地区位于病毒和载体的边界。在疾病和载体范围的边缘，诸如此类的地理区域最大的风险是出现和再次出现传染病。我们将评估AE的相对年龄结构。在美国南部和索诺拉（Sonora）的九个城市中，埃及人口通过捕获和分子确定成人AE的年龄，在气候变化。埃及在四个蚊子季节。我们希望拥有极为干燥和炎热的城市将有年轻的AE。埃及人口。据报道，我们希望有AE的城市。埃及在获得第一顿血餐时平均比没有传播的城市年轻。确定AE的年龄。埃及人口在较细的空间尺度上有所不同，我们将在墨西哥赫莫西洛的150户家庭中品尝成年人。一个有登革热疫情的城市。此外，我们将调查家庭的潜在社会和环境因素，以调解气候与寿命之间的关系。我们希望在家庭之间发现很大的可变性。拥有较早蚊子的住宅将拥有更多的植被，蚊子进入和室内休息地点的障碍更少，没有竞争的矢量物种，也没有控制措施。从前两个目标中收集的信息中，我们将构建一个模型，以预测AE扩展的可能性。埃及人群的生存长期可以传播登革热，从而改变登革热的风险。我们预计，在气候变化情况下的登革热风险模型将在超过热量和干燥阈值的区域减少，并且随着水分的增加而增加人群。

项目成果

Differences in Longevity and Temperature-Driven Extrinsic Incubation Period Correlate with Varying Dengue Risk in the Arizona-Sonora Desert Region.

• DOI: 10.3390/v15040851
• 发表时间: 2023-03-26
• 期刊: Viruses
• 作者: Ernst KC;Walker KR;Castro-Luque AL;Schmidt C;Joy TK;Brophy M;Reyes-Castro P;Díaz-Caravantes RE;Encinas VO;Aguilera A;Gameros M;Cuevas Ruiz RE;Hayden MH;Alvarez G;Monaghan A;Williamson D;Arnbrister J;Gutiérrez EJ;Carrière Y;Riehle MA
• 通讯作者: Riehle MA

Knowledge, Attitudes, and Practices Related to Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever in Hermosillo, México.

墨西哥埃莫西约与落基山斑疹热相关的知识、态度和做法。

• DOI: 10.4269/ajtmh.20-0181
• 发表时间: 2021
• 期刊: The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene
• 作者: Reyes-Castro,PabloA;Ernst,KaceyC;Walker,KathleenR;Hayden,MaryH;Alvarez-Hernandez,Gerardo
• 通讯作者: Alvarez-Hernandez,Gerardo

Climate and dengue transmission: evidence and implications.

• DOI: 10.1289/ehp.1306556
• 发表时间: 2013-11
• 期刊: Environmental health perspectives
• 影响因子: 10.4
• 作者: Morin CW;Comrie AC;Ernst K
• 通讯作者: Ernst K

Spatio-temporal and neighborhood characteristics of two dengue outbreaks in two arid cities of Mexico.

墨西哥两个干旱城市两次登革热疫情的时空和邻里特征。

• DOI: 10.1016/j.actatropica.2017.01.001
• 发表时间: 2017
• 期刊: Acta tropica
• 影响因子: 2.7
• 作者: Reyes-Castro,PabloA;Harris,RobinB;Brown,HeidiE;Christopherson,GaryL;Ernst,KaceyC
• 通讯作者: Ernst,KaceyC

WHATCH'EM: A Weather-Driven Energy Balance Model for Determining Water Height and Temperature in Container Habitats for Aedes aegypti.

WHATCHEM：用于确定埃及伊蚊容器栖息地水位和温度的天气驱动能量平衡模型。

• DOI: 10.1175/ei-d-15-0048.1
• 发表时间: 2016
• 期刊: Earth interactions
• 影响因子: 2
• 作者: Steinhoff,DanielF;Monaghan,AndrewJ;Eisen,Lars;Barlage,MichaelJ;Hopson,ThomasM;Tarakidzwa,Isaac;Ortiz-Rosario,Karielys;Lozano-Fuentes,Saul;Hayden,MaryH;Bieringer,PaulE;WelshRodríguez,CarlosM
• 通讯作者: WelshRodríguez,CarlosM