The housing environment and ambient temperature (HEAT) study

住房环境和环境温度（HEAT）研究

• 批准号: 10683799
• 负责人: Leah H Schinasi
• 金额: $ 43.81万
• 依托单位: DREXEL UNIVERSITY
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2022-09-19 至 2023-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/10683799
• 关键词: Acclimatization; Acute; Age; American; Americas; Biological; Cardiovascular Diseases; Cardiovascular system; Categories; Cessation of life; Characteristics; Chronic; Communities; Cox Proportional Hazards Models; Data; Data Set; Databases; Elderly; Environment; Europe; Future; Goals; Health; Housing; Humidity; Individual; Intervention; Kidney Diseases; Link; Longitudinal Studies; Longitudinal cohort study; Measures; Medicare; Meta-Analysis; Meteorology; Microclimate; Modeling; Modernization; Morbidity - disease rate; Neighborhoods; Participant; Persons; Physics; Physiological; Population Study; Predisposition; Research; Resolution; Respiratory Disease; Risk; Sampling; Science; Surveys; Temperature; Time; Typology; Uncertainty; United States; Urbanization; Work; attributable mortality; built environment; climate change; climate zone; cohort; cost; design; enhancing factor; extreme heat; future climate scenario; human old age (65+); improved; indexing; land cover; models and simulation; mortality; mortality disparity; population based; premature; prevent; respiratory; social; sociodemographics; statistics; therapy design

Abstract Without intervention, by the end of this century, extreme heat will cause tens of thousands of excess deaths. Developing a complete understanding of the long-term burden of deaths from heat, and characteristics that heighten or reduce heat vulnerability, is critical – for illuminating the urgency of climate change mitigation strategies and informing the design of interventions for heat adaptation. It is well accepted that heat vulnerability is determined by biologic susceptibility, adaptive capacity, and exposure intensity, and that most heat-related deaths - particularly among the elderly in the United States and Europe - occur indoors. Nevertheless, current understanding of heat-related mortality and vulnerability remains limited. First, most research on heat-related death has quantified acute (short-term) associations between temperature and mortality; as a result, there remains uncertainty about the long-term burden of deaths attributable to heat. Second, most research has calculated associations with outdoor rather than indoor temperatures, thus potentially misclassifying exposures and under-estimating the mortality impacts of heat. Additionally, little is known about the extent to which housing interventions that promote thermal comfort, such as improving insulation or altering roofing material, may prevent excess deaths from heat. There is an urgent need to fill these gaps, since most people, and especially heat vulnerable subpopulations like the elderly, spend the majority of their time inside. Here, we propose a longitudinal cohort study of a nationally representative sample of age 65 and older adult participants of the Mortality Disparities in America Communities (MDAC) study linked with Medicare and National Death Index data. We will combine these data with indoor temperature and humidity variables calculated using building science and physics-based simulation models; individual-level housing characteristics derived from nationally representative survey data; and high-resolution land cover data. We will leverage the resulting large, population-based database, consisting of a remarkably rich set of person- and neighborhood-level variables, to improve understanding of associations between housing characteristics, indoor temperature exposures, and mortality, and person- and neighborhood-level determinants of heat vulnerability. In Aim 1, we will quantify associations between summertime indoor temperature exposures and longer-term all-cause and cause-specific mortality. In Aim 2, we will elucidate person- and neighborhood-level factors that enhance or reduce vulnerability to indoor heat. In Aim 3, we will quantify the total excess deaths that may be prevented through housing interventions that improve thermal comfort - under current and future climate scenarios. We will stratify all analyses by climate zone and by urbanicity levels, to account for differences in urbanization-related heat exposures, built- environments, and physiologic acclimatization. This impactful project will provide information that is critically needed to guide interventions for heat adaptation.

抽象的 如果不进行干预，到本世纪末，极端高温将导致数万人过度死亡。 全面了解高温死亡的长期负担以及以下特征： 提高或减少热脆弱性对于阐明缓解气候变化的紧迫性至关重要 热脆弱性已被广泛接受。 由生物敏感性、适应能力和暴露强度决定，大多数与热相关的 然而，目前死亡事件——尤其是美国和欧洲的老年人——发生在室内。 对与高温相关的死亡率和脆弱性的了解仍然有限。首先，大多数研究都与高温相关。 因此，死亡量化了温度与死亡率之间的急性（短期）关联； 其次，大多数研究都认为高温造成的长期死亡负担仍然存在不确定性。 计算出与室外温度而不是室内温度的关联，因此可能会错误分类暴露 此外，人们对住房的影响程度知之甚少。 促进热舒适性的干预措施，例如改善隔热或改变屋顶材料，可能会阻止 由于大多数人，尤其是高温，因此迫切需要填补这些空白。 像老年人这样的弱势群体，大部分时间都在室内度过，在这里，我们提出了一个纵向的建议。 对 65 岁和死亡率的老年人参与者进行全国代表性样本的队列研究 美国社区差异 (MDAC) 研究与医疗保险和国家死亡指数数据相关。 将这些数据与使用建筑科学计算出的室内温度和湿度变量相结合 基于物理的模拟模型；源自全国代表性的个人水平住房特征 我们将利用由此产生的大量基于人口的数据。 数据库，由一组非常丰富的个人和社区级别的变量组成，以改善 了解住房特征、室内温度暴露和死亡率之间的关联， 在目标 1 中，我们将量化关联性。 夏季室内温度暴露与长期全因和特定原因死亡率之间的关系。 目标 2，我们将阐明个人和社区层面的因素，这些因素会增强或减少室内环境的脆弱性 在目标 3 中，我们将量化通过住房干预措施可以预防的超额死亡总数。 提高热舒适度 - 在当前和未来的气候情景下，我们将按气候对所有分析进行分层。 区域和城市化水平，以解释与城市化相关的热暴露的差异，建筑 这个有影响力的项目将提供至关重要的信息。 需要指导热适应干预措施。