Individual and Neighborhood Vulnerability to the Spanish Flu

个人和社区对西班牙流感的脆弱性

基本信息

批准号：
10644538
负责人：
John R Logan
金额：
$ 23.93万
依托单位：
BROWN UNIVERSITY
依托单位国家：
美国
项目类别：
财政年份：
2023
资助国家：
美国
起止时间：
2023-05-01 至 2025-04-30
项目状态：
未结题

来源：
https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/10644538
关键词：
1918 influenza pandemic Address Affect Age Area Attention Birth Place COVID-19 COVID-19 pandemic Cause of Death Censuses Cessation of life Characteristics Cities Communities Community Health Coronavirus Country Data Data Set Death Certificates Death Rate Death Records Dimensions Ethnic Origin Event Fatality rate Gender Genetic Transcription Glean Health Household Individual Inequality Influenza Knowledge Link Location Measurement Measures Names Neighborhoods New York New York City Occupations Outcome Parents Pattern Persons Philadelphia Pneumonia Public Health Race Records Research Risk Risk Factors Sampling Severities Social Class Societies Spanish flu Standardization Surveys Survivors System Time Variant behavior measurement comparative contagion experience falls flexibility flu future pandemic health disparity innovation mortality mortality risk multilevel analysis outcome disparities pandemic disease predictive modeling previous pandemic response social group spatial relationship urban area

项目摘要

PROJECT SUMMARY/ABSTRACT This is a study of mortality risk in the deadliest pandemic in the 20th Century, the Spanish flu of 1918, in two of the U.S. cities with the highest number of fatalities, New York and Philadelphia. It has four main aims. Aim 1 is to examine mortality from the Spanish flu at the neighborhood scale in these cities. Aim 2 is to extend the ecological analysis with multilevel models including individual-level predictors. Aim 3 is to compare the patterns of influenza/pneumonia mortality during the pandemic with mortality in the same period in the previous year, and Aim 4 is to compare patterns between cities. Few studies of pandemics have gone beyond analyzing mortality data at the level of whole cities to consider spatial variation within cities, and there have been none that examined risk of mortality in a pandemic using multilevel models. In this project, drawing on individual death records, attention can be directed to specific neighborhoods and mortality risk of their residents. The study will show how personal characteristics such as age, gender, race, nativity, and social class affect risk of mortality in a multilevel model that includes similar characteristics measured at a neighborhood scale and also incorporates spatial relationships among neighborhoods. These aims will be addressed through analysis of a new data set with several innovative components. 1) Transcription of all death certificates during fall 1917 and fall 1918 in New York and Philadelphia including the person’s name, age, race, gender, address, cause of death, date of death, occupation, and parents’ names and place of birth. 2) Geocoding of addresses in a historically accurate GIS system, so that persons can be linked to their neighborhoods. 3) Use of 100% census microdata from 1920 to create measures of neighborhood characteristics, construct a comparison sample of flu survivors, and glean information about the households of those who died. These data will allow the project to probe the independent effects of various individual risk factors while also examining neighborhood differences and spatial patterns in mortality.

项目概要/摘要这是一项针对 20 世纪最致命的流行病——1918 年西班牙流感——的死亡风险的研究，发生在两个国家死亡人数最多的美国城市，纽约和费城它有四个主要目标。在这些城市的社区范围内检查西班牙流感的死亡率，目标 2 是延长死亡率。使用包括个体水平预测变量的多水平模型进行生态分析，目的是比较大流行期间流感/肺炎死亡率与上一时期同期死亡率的模式年，目标 4 是比较城市之间的模式，很少有关于流行病的研究超出了分析范围。整个城市层面的死亡率数据考虑了城市内部的空间差异，目前还没有在这个项目中，利用个人的多层次模型研究了大流行中的死亡风险。通过死亡记录，可以将注意力集中到特定的社区及其居民的死亡风险。研究将显示年龄、性别、种族、出生地和社会阶层等个人特征如何影响患病风险多级模型中的死亡率，包括在邻里尺度上测量的类似特征，以及包含邻里之间的空间关系。这些目标将通过分析具有多个创新组件的新数据集来实现。转录 1917 年秋季和 1918 年秋季纽约和费城的所有死亡证明，包括人员姓名、年龄、种族、性别、地址、死亡原因、死亡日期、职业和父母姓名 2) 在历史上准确的 GIS 系统中对地址进行地理编码，以便可以对人员进行定位。 3) 使用 1920 年的 100% 人口普查微观数据来创建衡量指标社区特征，构建流感幸存者的比较样本，并收集有关流感幸存者的信息这些数据将使该项目能够探究各种因素的独立影响。个体风险因素，同时还检查邻里差异和死亡率的空间模式。