Modelled estimation of population immunity for coccidioidomycosis and the role of immunologically naïve populations in the shifting epidemiology of coccidioidomycosis in California

球孢子菌病人群免疫力的模型估计以及免疫学上未接触过的人群在加利福尼亚州球孢子菌病流行病学变化中的作用

• 批准号: 10740731
• 负责人: Jennifer Head
• 金额: $ 11.56万
• 依托单位: UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN AT ANN ARBOR
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2023
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2023-08-03 至 2028-07-31
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/10740731
• 关键词: Acceleration; Accounting; Age; Area; Awareness; Bayesian Modeling; Biology; Biometry; Black Populations; Body part; California; Career Mobility; Case Study; Censuses; Cessation of life; Chronic; Coccidioides; Coccidioidomycosis; Communicable Diseases; Communities; Computational Technique; Computing Methodologies; County; Data; Decision Making; Demography; Detection; Development; Diagnostic; Disease; Disparity; Droughts; Emerging Communicable Diseases; Environment; Environmental Health; Epidemiologist; Epidemiology; Ethnic Origin; Ethnic Population; Exhibits; FDA approved; Future; General Population; Geographic Locations; Geography; Goals; Grant; Head; Health system; Hispanic Populations; Humoral Immunities; Hypersensitivity skin testing; Immune; Immunity; Immunize; Immunologics; Immunology; Incidence; Individual; Infection; Infectious Disease Epidemiology; Inhalation; Knowledge; Leadership; Link; Location; Mathematics; Measures; Meningitis; Mentored Research Scientist Development Award; Mentors; Mentorship; Methods; Military Personnel; Modeling; Movement; Mycoses; Occupational; Patients; Pattern; Persons; Physicians; Population; Predisposition; Prevalence; Probability; Public Health; Publishing; Race; Recording of previous events; Recreation; Reporting; Reproduction spores; Research; Research Activity; Research Project Grants; Resource Allocation; Resources; Respiratory Disease; Respiratory Tract Infections; Risk; Risk Estimate; Risk Factors; Role; Scientist; Screening procedure; Series; Seroprevalences; Severities; Soil; Source; Subgroup; Surveys; Symptoms; System; Testing; Time; Training; Universities; Work; Writing; age related; burden of illness; career; career development; cell mediated immune response; climate change; community acquired pneumonia; data integration; diagnostic tool; disability-adjusted life years; disease transmission; experience; faculty mentor; health care availability; health care disparity; health care service utilization; infection risk; large datasets; mortality; multiple data sources; neglect; racial population; recruit; serosurvey; skills; social epidemiology; social factors; surveillance data; transmission process; vaccination strategy

PROJECT SUMMARY This K01 award will support the career development of Dr. Jennifer Head, an Epidemiologist in the Division of Environmental Health Sciences at the University of California, Berkeley. The candidate’s goal is to become a leader in the development and application of mathematical and statistical approaches to understand the transmission dynamics of emerging infectious diseases. This application proposes linked career development and research activities to fill an important gap in understanding population immunity to coccidioidomycosis, an emerging infectious disease caused by inhalation of soil-dwelling Coccidioides spores. While CDC estimates nearly 150,000 cases of coccidioidomycosis go uncounted each year, direct methods for estimating population immunity for coccidioidomycosis are unavailable. Absent estimates of prior immunity for coccidioidomycosis, we are unable to identify populations experiencing higher rates of under-reporting, understand the role of low population immunity in the emergence of the disease in new regions, nor explain disparities in infection risk and case severity. This project aims to advance the candidate’s expertise and skills in computational methods for robustly estimating prior immunity in populations and incorporating population immunity into models examining key drivers of disease. The candidate will develop a quantitative Bayesian framework for estimating prior immunity to coccidioidomycosis by geographic region in California (Aim 1). The candidate will extend the framework to identify disparities in under-reporting by race and ethnicity, yielding a more accurate assessment of disparities in disease incidence (Aim 2). Estimates of population immunity will be integrated into a statistical framework capable of estimating key risk factors for infection in the presence of mobile immune and non- immune populations (Aim 3). Through partnership with California Department of Public Health, the work will leverage patient data on >94,000 geolocated cases reported since 2000. The 5-year training plan includes primary mentorship from three experienced and committed faculty mentors at UC Berkeley with expertise in biostatistics, infectious disease epidemiology and disease dynamics. Four additional mentors—top leaders in fungal biology, immunology, demography, and social epidemiology—will support the candidate. Leadership of the proposed research, along with a training plan involving coursework, and mentored grant writing and project management, will advance the candidate’s training objectives to: 1) build skills in assessing the role of population immunity in disease transmission; 2) develop expertise in measuring and integrating social factors into transmission models; 3) develop skills to overcome computational barriers when working with large datasets; and 4) strengthen collaborative partnerships and build leadership skills for directing transdisciplinary research projects. UC Berkeley’s commitment to early career scientists; leadership in epidemiology, biostatistics, and fungal biology; strong track record of research in infectious diseases; and close partnerships with public health agencies will provide the candidate an outstanding environment to advance her career goals.

项目概要 该 K01 奖项将支持流行病学家 Jennifer Head 博士的职业发展 加州大学伯克利分校环境健康科学专业候选人的目标是成为一名 开发和应用数学和统计方法来理解事物的领导者 该应用程序提出了新发传染病的传播动态。 和研究活动，以填补了解人群对球孢子菌病免疫力的重要空白， 疾病预防控制中心估计，新出现的传染病是由吸入土壤中的球孢子菌孢子引起的。 每年有近 150,000 例球孢子菌病病例未被统计，直接方法估计人口 缺乏对球孢子菌病的先前免疫力的估计， 我们无法识别漏报率较高的人群，也无法了解低报告率的作用 新地区出现疾病时的人群免疫力，也不能解释感染风险的差异 该项目旨在提高候选人在计算方法方面的专业知识和技能。 用于稳健地估计人群的先前免疫力并将人群免疫力纳入模型中 检查疾病的关键驱动因素。候选人将开发一个用于估计的定量贝叶斯框架。 加州地理区域先前对球孢子菌病的免疫力（目标 1）。 确定种族和族裔漏报差异的框架，从而产生更准确的评估 疾病发病率的差异（目标 2）将纳入统计数据。 能够估计存在移动免疫和非感染的情况下感染的关键风险因素的框架 通过与加州公共卫生部的合作，这项工作将针对免疫人群（目标 3）。 利用自 2000 年以来报告的超过 94,000 个地理定位病例的患者数据。5 年培训计划包括 来自加州大学伯克利分校三位经验丰富、忠诚的教师导师的主要指导，他们具有以下方面的专业知识 另外四位导师——生物统计学、传染病流行病学和疾病动力学领域的顶尖领导者。 真菌生物学、免疫学、人口统计学和社会流行病学——将支持候选人的领导力。 拟议的研究以及涉及课程作业的培训计划，并指导拨款写作和项目 管理，将推进候选人的培训目标：1）建立评估角色的技能 疾病传播中的群体免疫；2）发展测量和整合社会因素的专业知识 传输模型；3）培养克服大型计算障碍的技能 数据集；4）加强合作伙伴关系并培养指导跨学科的领导技能 加州大学伯克利分校对流行病学领域早期职业科学家的承诺； 生物统计学和真菌生物学；传染病研究的良好记录和密切的合作伙伴关系； 与公共卫生机构合作将为候选人提供一个良好的环境来推进她的职业目标。