The Impact of Drought on Arsenic Exposure and Cardiometabolic Outcomes in a Rural Aging Population

干旱对农村老龄人口砷暴露和心脏代谢结果的影响

基本信息

批准号：
10631234
负责人：
Matthew O. Gribble
金额：
$ 58.65万
依托单位：
UNIVERSITY OF COLORADO DENVER
依托单位国家：
美国
项目类别：
财政年份：
2021
资助国家：
美国
起止时间：
2021-08-05 至 2026-05-31
项目状态：
未结题

来源：
https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/10631234
关键词：
Address Adult Advisory Committees Aging Arsenic Biological Markers California Cardiometabolic Disease Cardiovascular Diseases Cause of Death Climate Cohort Studies Colorado Communication Communities Data Diabetes Mellitus Discipline Disease Outcome Droughts Ecosystem Education Elderly Eligibility Determination Environmental Health Epidemiologist Epidemiology Ethnic Origin Future Health Health Benefit Hispanic Human Incidence Individual Intervention Knowledge Learning Module Life Expectancy Link Literature Machine Learning Measurement Measures Mediating Mediation Medicare claim Mentored Clinical Scientist Development Program Methodology Methods Modeling Natural Disasters Nested Case-Control Study Not Hispanic or Latino Outcome Participant Persons Population Public Health Pump Quality of life Recommendation Recording of previous events Research Residual state Resources Retrospective cohort study Risk Role Rural STEM career Sampling Schools Science Scientist Source Statistical Methods Time Toxicology Uncertainty United States Urine Visit Water Woman Work aging population biological sex cardiometabolism case control clay climate change climate-related health cohort community engaged research cost density design disorder risk drinking water empowerment epidemiological model exposure pathway extreme weather geochemistry ground water hydrology innovation insight interdisciplinary approach meetings member men mortality novel strategies outreach population based preventive intervention programs prospective remote sensing resilience secondary analysis sex simulation spatiotemporal tool water conservation water quality weather-related disaster

项目摘要

Project Summary / Abstract Droughts are an important natural disaster but the health implications for elderly populations in the United States have not been extensively studied. This study seeks to provide evidence on the cardiometabolic health risks posed by drought. Droughts can contribute to groundwater over-pumping, and this may in turn lead to arsenic release from aquifer clays into drinking water sources. The impacts of drought on arsenic exposure and resultant health outcomes in human populations are potentially important and this study seeks to address that knowledge gap. We propose to conduct a retrospective cohort study using data from the San Luis Valley Diabetes Study, as well as hydrogeological measurements of water and environmental conditions in the San Luis Valley, to clarify relationships between drought, arsenic in water, arsenic exposure (as measured by urine biomarker), and cardiometabolic health outcomes including incident diabetes (DM), incident cardiovascular disease (CVD), and all-cause mortality. This work is community-engaged and includes a K12 outreach component. Aim 1 quantifies the relationship of drought to individual arsenic exposures and thence to incident CVD, incident DM, and mortality. Aim 2 generates a model for groundwater arsenic as a function of hydrological predictors using machine learning approaches, and uses this to explore relationships between drought, modeled water arsenic and the outcomes of Aim 1. Aim 3 estimates the association between cumulative arsenic exposure and incident CVD, incident DM, and mortality, using a nested case-control design and predictions over time of arsenic exposure from the Aim 2 model. Aim 4 is a simulation study projecting future CVD and DM outcomes under different scenarios of drought conditions, with and without counterfactual interventions to reduce drinking water arsenic.

项目概要/摘要干旱是一种重要的自然灾害，但对美国老年人口的健康影响国家尚未得到广泛研究。本研究旨在提供心脏代谢健康的证据干旱带来的风险。干旱会导致地下水过度抽取，进而可能导致砷从含水层粘土释放到饮用水源中。干旱对砷暴露的影响由此产生的人类健康结果可能很重要，本研究旨在解决那个知识差距。我们建议使用圣路易斯谷的数据进行回顾性队列研究糖尿病研究以及桑河水和环境条件的水文地质测量 Luis Valley，澄清干旱、水中砷、砷暴露（通过尿液测量）之间的关系生物标志物）和心脏代谢健康结果，包括糖尿病（DM）、心血管事件疾病（CVD）和全因死亡率。这项工作是社区参与的，包括 K12 外展活动成分。目标 1 量化干旱与个人砷暴露及其与事件的关系 CVD、糖尿病事件和死亡率。目标 2 生成地下水砷作为以下函数的模型使用机器学习方法的水文预测器，并用它来探索之间的关系干旱、模拟水砷和目标 1 的结果。目标 3 估计了以下因素之间的关联：使用巢式病例对照设计计算累积砷暴露与事件 CVD、事件 DM 和死亡率以及 Aim 2 模型对砷暴露随时间变化的预测。目标 4 是一项模拟研究预测不同干旱条件下未来 CVD 和 DM 的结果，有或没有反事实减少饮用水砷的干预措施。