The Impact of Drought on Arsenic Exposure and Cardiometabolic Outcomes in a Rural Aging Population

干旱对农村老龄人口砷暴露和心脏代谢结果的影响

• 批准号: 10631234
• 负责人: Matthew O. Gribble
• 金额: $ 58.65万
• 依托单位: UNIVERSITY OF COLORADO DENVER
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2021
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2021-08-05 至 2026-05-31
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/10631234
• 关键词: Address; Adult; Advisory Committees; Aging; Arsenic; Biological Markers; California; Cardiometabolic Disease; Cardiovascular Diseases; Cause of Death; Climate; Cohort Studies; Colorado; Communication; Communities; Data; Diabetes Mellitus; Discipline; Disease Outcome; Droughts; Ecosystem; Education; Elderly; Eligibility Determination; Environmental Health; Epidemiologist; Epidemiology; Ethnic Origin; Future; Health; Health Benefit; Hispanic; Human; Incidence; Individual; Intervention; Knowledge; Learning Module; Life Expectancy; Link; Literature; Machine Learning; Measurement; Measures; Mediating; Mediation; Medicare claim; Mentored Clinical Scientist Development Program; Methodology; Methods; Modeling; Natural Disasters; Nested Case-Control Study; Not Hispanic or Latino; Outcome; Participant; Persons; Population; Public Health; Pump; Quality of life; Recommendation; Recording of previous events; Research; Residual state; Resources; Retrospective cohort study; Risk; Role; Rural; STEM career; Sampling; Schools; Science; Scientist; Source; Statistical Methods; Time; Toxicology; Uncertainty; United States; Urine; Visit; Water; Woman; Work; aging population; biological sex; cardiometabolism; case control; clay; climate change; climate-related health; cohort; community engaged research; cost; density; design; disorder risk; drinking water; empowerment; epidemiological model; exposure pathway; extreme weather; geochemistry; ground water; hydrology; innovation; insight; interdisciplinary approach; meetings; member; men; mortality; novel strategies; outreach; population based; preventive intervention; programs; prospective; remote sensing; resilience; secondary analysis; sex; simulation; spatiotemporal; tool; water conservation; water quality; weather-related disaster

Project Summary / Abstract Droughts are an important natural disaster but the health implications for elderly populations in the United States have not been extensively studied. This study seeks to provide evidence on the cardiometabolic health risks posed by drought. Droughts can contribute to groundwater over-pumping, and this may in turn lead to arsenic release from aquifer clays into drinking water sources. The impacts of drought on arsenic exposure and resultant health outcomes in human populations are potentially important and this study seeks to address that knowledge gap. We propose to conduct a retrospective cohort study using data from the San Luis Valley Diabetes Study, as well as hydrogeological measurements of water and environmental conditions in the San Luis Valley, to clarify relationships between drought, arsenic in water, arsenic exposure (as measured by urine biomarker), and cardiometabolic health outcomes including incident diabetes (DM), incident cardiovascular disease (CVD), and all-cause mortality. This work is community-engaged and includes a K12 outreach component. Aim 1 quantifies the relationship of drought to individual arsenic exposures and thence to incident CVD, incident DM, and mortality. Aim 2 generates a model for groundwater arsenic as a function of hydrological predictors using machine learning approaches, and uses this to explore relationships between drought, modeled water arsenic and the outcomes of Aim 1. Aim 3 estimates the association between cumulative arsenic exposure and incident CVD, incident DM, and mortality, using a nested case-control design and predictions over time of arsenic exposure from the Aim 2 model. Aim 4 is a simulation study projecting future CVD and DM outcomes under different scenarios of drought conditions, with and without counterfactual interventions to reduce drinking water arsenic.

项目摘要 /摘要 干旱是重要的自然灾害，但对联合老年人口的健康影响 状态尚未进行广泛研究。这项研究旨在提供有关心脏代谢健康的证据 干旱带来的风险。干旱可能会导致地下水过度抽水，这可能导致 从含水层粘土中释放到饮用水源。干旱对砷暴露的影响 人群中由此产生的健康结果可能很重要，本研究旨在解决 知识差距。我们建议使用来自圣路易斯谷的数据进行回顾性队列研究 糖尿病研究以及SAN的水和环境条件的水文地质测量 路易斯谷（Luis Valley），阐明干旱，水中的砷，砷暴露之间的关系 生物标志物）和心脏代谢健康结果，包括事件糖尿病（DM），事件心血管 疾病（CVD）和全因死亡率。这项工作是社区参与的，包括K12外展 成分。目标1量化了干旱与单个砷暴露的关系，从而量化了与事件的关系 CVD，事件DM和死亡率。 AIM 2生成了地下水砷的模型 使用机器学习方法的水文预测变量，并使用此方法来探索 干旱，建模的水砷和目标1的结果。目标3估计 使用嵌套的病例对照设计，累积砷暴露和事件CVD，事件DM和死亡 AIM 2模型中砷暴露的预测和预测。 AIM 4是一个模拟研究投影 在干旱条件的不同情况下，未来的CVD和DM结果，有和不相反 减少饮用水砷的干预措施。