The Impact of Drought on Arsenic Exposure and Cardiometabolic Outcomes in a Rural Aging Population

干旱对农村老龄人口砷暴露和心脏代谢结果的影响

基本信息

批准号：
10631234
负责人：
Matthew O. Gribble
金额：
$ 58.65万
依托单位：
UNIVERSITY OF COLORADO DENVER
依托单位国家：
美国
项目类别：
财政年份：
2021
资助国家：
美国
起止时间：
2021-08-05 至 2026-05-31
项目状态：
未结题

来源：
https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/10631234
关键词：
Address Adult Advisory Committees Aging Arsenic Biological Markers California Cardiometabolic Disease Cardiovascular Diseases Cause of Death Climate Cohort Studies Colorado Communication Communities Data Diabetes Mellitus Discipline Disease Outcome Droughts Ecosystem Education Elderly Eligibility Determination Environmental Health Epidemiologist Epidemiology Ethnic Origin Future Health Health Benefit Hispanic Human Incidence Individual Intervention Knowledge Learning Module Life Expectancy Link Literature Machine Learning Measurement Measures Mediating Mediation Medicare claim Mentored Clinical Scientist Development Program Methodology Methods Modeling Natural Disasters Nested Case-Control Study Not Hispanic or Latino Outcome Participant Persons Population Public Health Pump Quality of life Recommendation Recording of previous events Research Residual state Resources Retrospective cohort study Risk Role Rural STEM career Sampling Schools Science Scientist Source Statistical Methods Time Toxicology Uncertainty United States Urine Visit Water Woman Work aging population biological sex cardiometabolism case control clay climate change climate-related health cohort community engaged research cost density design disorder risk drinking water empowerment epidemiological model exposure pathway extreme weather geochemistry ground water hydrology innovation insight interdisciplinary approach meetings member men mortality novel strategies outreach population based preventive intervention programs prospective remote sensing resilience secondary analysis sex simulation spatiotemporal tool water conservation water quality weather-related disaster

项目摘要

Project Summary / Abstract Droughts are an important natural disaster but the health implications for elderly populations in the United States have not been extensively studied. This study seeks to provide evidence on the cardiometabolic health risks posed by drought. Droughts can contribute to groundwater over-pumping, and this may in turn lead to arsenic release from aquifer clays into drinking water sources. The impacts of drought on arsenic exposure and resultant health outcomes in human populations are potentially important and this study seeks to address that knowledge gap. We propose to conduct a retrospective cohort study using data from the San Luis Valley Diabetes Study, as well as hydrogeological measurements of water and environmental conditions in the San Luis Valley, to clarify relationships between drought, arsenic in water, arsenic exposure (as measured by urine biomarker), and cardiometabolic health outcomes including incident diabetes (DM), incident cardiovascular disease (CVD), and all-cause mortality. This work is community-engaged and includes a K12 outreach component. Aim 1 quantifies the relationship of drought to individual arsenic exposures and thence to incident CVD, incident DM, and mortality. Aim 2 generates a model for groundwater arsenic as a function of hydrological predictors using machine learning approaches, and uses this to explore relationships between drought, modeled water arsenic and the outcomes of Aim 1. Aim 3 estimates the association between cumulative arsenic exposure and incident CVD, incident DM, and mortality, using a nested case-control design and predictions over time of arsenic exposure from the Aim 2 model. Aim 4 is a simulation study projecting future CVD and DM outcomes under different scenarios of drought conditions, with and without counterfactual interventions to reduce drinking water arsenic.

项目摘要 /摘要干旱是重要的自然灾害，但对联合老年人口的健康影响状态尚未进行广泛研究。这项研究旨在提供有关心脏代谢健康的证据干旱带来的风险。干旱可能会导致地下水过度抽水，这可能导致从含水层粘土中释放到饮用水源。干旱对砷暴露的影响人群中由此产生的健康结果可能很重要，本研究旨在解决知识差距。我们建议使用来自圣路易斯谷的数据进行回顾性队列研究糖尿病研究以及SAN的水和环境条件的水文地质测量路易斯谷（Luis Valley），阐明干旱，水中的砷，砷暴露之间的关系生物标志物）和心脏代谢健康结果，包括事件糖尿病（DM），事件心血管疾病（CVD）和全因死亡率。这项工作是社区参与的，包括K12外展成分。目标1量化了干旱与单个砷暴露的关系，从而量化了与事件的关系 CVD，事件DM和死亡率。 AIM 2生成了地下水砷的模型使用机器学习方法的水文预测变量，并使用此方法来探索干旱，建模的水砷和目标1的结果。目标3估计使用嵌套的病例对照设计，累积砷暴露和事件CVD，事件DM和死亡 AIM 2模型中砷暴露的预测和预测。 AIM 4是一个模拟研究投影在干旱条件的不同情况下，未来的CVD和DM结果，有和不相反减少饮用水砷的干预措施。