Investing in the Future: An Evaluation of Local Government Spending as a Modifiable Structural Determinant of Interpersonal Youth Violence

投资未来：对地方政府支出作为青年人际暴力的可修改结构性决定因素的评估

• 批准号: 10547312
• 负责人: Veronica A. Pear
• 金额: $ 14.7万
• 依托单位: UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA AT DAVIS
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2022-09-30 至 2024-09-29
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/10547312
• 关键词: Investing; Future; Evaluation; Local; Government

Project Summary/Abstract I am an epidemiologist and Assistant Professor at UC Davis primarily studying the causes, consequences, and prevention of firearm violence. My long-term career goal is to create a high-impact, methodologically rigorous research program on firearm violence prevention. I am particularly interested in studying modifiable upstream causes of violence that can be leveraged to effectuate widespread, enduring reductions in violence- related harms. Aligned with this larger goal and the National Center for Injury Prevention and Control’s interpersonal violence research priority of youth violence, the objective of the proposed study is to examine local government spending as a potential structural determinant of interpersonal youth violence in the United States. This will be accomplished through the following specific aims: 1) to determine whether city spending on education, police, social services, and the community environment is associated with city rates of youth violence; 2) to determine whether city spending on education, police, social services, and the community environment is associated with Black-white racial disparities in city rates of youth violence; and 3) to determine whether the ratio of city spending on policing to spending on the sum of other public goods and services (education, social services, and the community environment) is associated with city rates of youth violence. Secondary analyses will examine outcomes by race/ethnicity and firearm involvement to identify race-based heterogeneity and firearm-specific trends. This will be a serial cross-sectional study of over 100 diverse cities in the United States, 1999-2018. It will draw on a novel dataset of city spending that has been standardized to account for variation in the allocation of fiscal responsibilities to overlaying governmental units (e.g., counties, school districts). Youth violence will be measured as victimization (homicide) and perpetration (arrest for aggravated assault or homicide) among individuals between the ages of 10 and 24. Sophisticated causal inference methods, including lagged fixed effects models and longitudinal g- computation, will be used to minimize confounding bias and examine both short- and long-term associations. This project will provide opportunities critical to my career development and research goals, including 1) deepening my expertise of violence prevention and expanding into the subfield of youth violence, 2) developing new methodological skills, and 3) moving toward research independence by serving as a primary investigator. These training goals will be guided by my team of mentors and will be supplemented by technical workshops offered primarily online. This proposal will be carried out at the Violence Prevention Research Program at UC Davis, which has been engaged in firearm violence prevention research for more than 30 years. The proposed project will provide me the experience, skills, and support I need to advance my research career and will allow me to substantially contribute to our limited understanding of the structural determinants of violence.

项目概要/摘要 我是加州大学戴维斯分校的流行病学家和助理教授，主要研究原因、后果和 我的长期职业目标是创建一个具有高影响力、方法严谨的组织。 我对研究可修改的枪支暴力研究项目特别感兴趣。 可以利用暴力的上游原因来实现广泛、持久的暴力减少—— 与这一更大的目标和国家伤害预防和控制中心的目标保持一致。 人际暴力研究的重点是青少年暴力，本次研究的目的是考察 地方政府支出是美国青少年人际暴力的潜在结构性决定因素 这将通过以下具体目标来实现： 1）确定城市支出是否合理。 教育、警察、社会服务和社区环境与城市青年率相关 2) 确定城市是否在教育、警察、社会服务和社区方面进行支出 环境与城市青少年暴力发生率的黑人和白人种族差异有关；3) 确定城市治安支出与其他公共产品支出总和的比率是否 服务（教育、社会服务和社区环境）与城市青年比率相关 二次分析将按种族/民族和枪支参与情况检查结果，以确定是否存在暴力行为。 这将是一项针对 100 多个项目的连续横断面研究。 它将利用 1999 年至 2018 年美国不同城市的城市支出数据集。 标准化以解释上级政府财政责任分配的变化 单位（例如县、学区）将青少年暴力分为受害（凶杀）和 10 岁至 24 岁之间的犯罪行为（因严重攻击或杀人而被捕）。 复杂的因果推理方法，包括滞后固定效应模型和纵向 g- 计算将用于最大限度地减少混杂偏差并检查短期和长期关联。 该项目将为我的职业发展和研究目标提供至关重要的机会，包括 1) 加深我在预防暴力方面的专业知识并将其扩展到青少年暴力子领域，2) 发展新的方法论技能，以及 3）通过作为主要研究人员走向研究独立性 这些培训目标将由我的导师团队指导，并由我的导师团队补充。 主要在线提供的技术研讨会将在暴力预防中心进行。 加州大学戴维斯分校的研究项目，从事枪支暴力预防研究超过 30 年，拟议的项目将为我提供进步所需的经验、技能和支持。 研究生涯将使我能够为我们对结构的有限理解做出重大贡献 暴力的决定因素。