Analyzing the potential for future bat coronavirus emergence in Myanmar, Laos, and Vietnam

分析缅甸、老挝和越南未来蝙蝠冠状病毒出现的可能性

基本信息

批准号：
10522470
负责人：
Peter Daszak
金额：
$ 65.34万
依托单位：
ECOHEALTH ALLIANCE, INC.
依托单位国家：
美国
项目类别：
财政年份：
2022
资助国家：
美国
起止时间：
2022-09-21 至 2027-08-31
项目状态：
未结题

来源：
https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/10522470
关键词：
2019-nCoV Affect Animal Model Animals Antibodies Asia Behavior Behavioral Biological Biological Assay COVID-19 COVID-19 test COVID-19 therapeutics Cell Culture Techniques Cells China Chiroptera Clinic Communities Contact Tracing Coronavirus Coronavirus Infections Country Data Disease Disease Outbreaks Environmental Risk Factor Environmental and Occupational Exposure Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent Assay Event Exposure to Frequencies Future Goals Human Immunoprecipitation Infection Intervention Laos Lead Luciferases Machine Learning Maps Measures Modeling Myanmar National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease Persons Population Probability Public Health Publishing Questionnaires Risk Rural Sampling Serology Serology test Serum Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Site Southeastern Asia Surveys Syndrome System Testing Vaccines Variant Vietnam Viral Virus Western Blotting Work Zoonoses animal coronavirus base community clinic community transmission coronavirus disease design disease transmission field study genome sequencing high risk molnupiravir novel novel coronavirus novel virus pandemic disease pandemic preparedness pathogen prototype public health intervention public health relevance remdesivir screening social structure spillover event therapeutic development vaccine candidate vaccine development whole genome zoonotic spillover

项目摘要

1 Two major coronaviral diseases of wildlife origin have emerged in Asia in the last two decades. Both likely 2 began as zoonotic spillover events, leading to small case clusters, but were not identified until significant 3 community spread made control difficult, and in the case of COVID-19, led to a pandemic. Our prior work and 4 preliminary data show that Southeast Asia has a high diversity of wildlife coronaviruses (CoVs), a large 5 proportion of the population with frequent occupational and environmental exposure to wildlife, and limited 6 surveillance at rural sites where outbreaks likely begin. Our hotspots risk mapping suggests countries directly 7 to the south of China; Myanmar, Laos and Vietnam in particular; contain regions with human-wildlife interfaces 8 and likely regular spillover of novel CoVs from bats and other wildlife. Our preliminary field studies have 9 identified novel viruses related to known zoonoses in bats and other wildlife from each of these countries and 10 communities with serological evidence of novel CoV exposure. The overarching goal of our work is to analyze 11 the behavioral and environmental risk factors for spillover of novel CoVs, identify wildlife-to-human spillover 12 events, assess the risk and drivers of community transmission and spread, and test potential public health 13 interventions to disrupt spillover and spread. To achieve this, we propose the following: 14 Specific Aim 1) community-based surveys and biological sampling of people frequently exposed to wildlife in 15 Myanmar, Laos, and Vietnam, to find serological evidence of spillover and assess behavioral, social structure, 16 spatial connectivity and mobility factors that lead to exposure, spillover, and spread; 17 Specific Aim 2) sampling and PCR screening of bats and other wildlife at community surveillance sites to 18 identify viruses and hosts related to the human infections detected in Aim 1; full genome sequencing and cell 19 entry assays to assess ability to infect human cells; machine learning approaches to estimate zoonotic 20 potential of each novel CoV; 21 Specific Aim 3) syndromic PCR-based surveillance in clinics to identify ‘cryptic’ cases or case clusters caused 22 by bat-CoVs; contact tracing to assess whether cases represent initial spillover or community spread events. 23 Our results will provide detailed information on the risk of future CoV spillover and spread and will inform 24 potential public health interventions to reduce spillover risk and outbreak potential. They may also provide data 25 on wildlife reservoirs and community spillover events of relevance to the origin of COVID-19. Finally, we will 26 rapidly supply viral sequences and isolates for use in vaccine and therapeutic development, including 27 “prototype pathogen” vaccines, via an existing MOU with the NIAID-CREID network. Our long-term goal is that 28 this work will act as a model to build pandemic preparedness strategies to better predict sites and communities 29 where wildlife-origin viruses are likely to emerge, and to disrupt emergence in EID hotspots around the world. 30

1 过去二十年里，亚洲出现了两种主要的源自野生动物的冠状病毒疾病。 2 开始时是人畜共患的溢出事件，导致出现小规模病例群，但直到出现重大病例后才被发现 3 社区传播使控制变得困难，就 COVID-19 而言，导致了大流行。 4 初步数据显示，东南亚野生动物冠状病毒（CoV）多样性较高， 5 经常在职业和环境中接触野生动物且有限的人口比例 6 对可能爆发疫情的农村地区进行监测，我们的热点风险图直接向各国提出建议。 7 中国南部；特别是缅甸、老挝和越南存在人类与野生动物接触的地区； 8 我们的初步实地研究表明，蝙蝠和其他野生动物可能会定期传播新型冠状病毒。 9 发现了与来自这些国家的蝙蝠和其他野生动物中已知的人畜共患疾病有关的新型病毒，并且 10 个具有新型冠状病毒暴露血清学证据的社区我们工作的首要目标是分析。 11 新型冠状病毒溢出的行为和环境风险因素，确定野生动物向人类的溢出 12个事件，评估社区传播和传播的风险和驱动因素，测试潜在的公共卫生 13 阻断溢出和传播的干预措施为实现这一目标，我们提出以下建议： 14 具体目标 1) 对经常接触野生动物的人群进行基于社区的调查和生物采样 15 缅甸、老挝和越南，寻找溢出的血清学证据并评估行为、社会结构、导致暴露、溢出和传播的 16 个空间连通性和流动性因素； 17 具体目标 2) 在社区监测点对蝙蝠和其他野生动物进行采样和 PCR 筛查，以 18 识别与目标 1 中检测到的人类感染相关的病毒和宿主； 19 种用于评估感染人类细胞能力的入门检测，以机器学习方法来估计人畜共患病；每种新型冠状病毒有 20 个潜力； 21 具体目标 3) 在诊所进行基于 PCR 的综合征监测，以识别引起的“神秘”病例或病例群 22 通过蝙蝠冠状病毒进行接触者追踪，以评估病例是否代表最初的溢出事件或社区传播事件。 23 我们的结果将提供有关未来冠状病毒溢出和传播风险的详细信息，并将为 24 减少溢出风险和爆发可能性的潜在公共卫生干预措施他们还可能提供数据。 25 关于与 COVID-19 起源相关的野生动物水库和社区溢出事件。 26 快速提供病毒序列和分离株用于疫苗和治疗开发，包括通过与 NIAID-CREID 网络签订的现有谅解备忘录，开发 27 种“原型病原体”疫苗。 28 这项工作将作为制定大流行病防备策略的模型，以更好地预测地点和社区 29 野生动物来源的病毒可能会出现，并扰乱世界各地 EID 热点地区的出现。 30