Individual-based Simulation of Seasonal and Pandemic Influenza Epidemics - supplement Emergency Response to the COVID-19 Pandemic

基于个人的季节性和大范围流感流行模拟 - 补充对 COVID-19 大流行的紧急响应

基本信息

批准号：
10650202
负责人：
MARK Stenius ROBERTS
金额：
$ 75万
依托单位：
UNIVERSITY OF PITTSBURGH AT PITTSBURGH
依托单位国家：
美国
项目类别：
财政年份：
2020
资助国家：
美国
起止时间：
2020-09-01 至 2025-08-31
项目状态：
未结题

来源：
https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/10650202
关键词：
Individual based Simulation Seasonal Pandemic

项目摘要

Project Abstract Seasonal influenza caused an estimated 48.8 million illnesses, 22.7 million health care visits, 959,000 hospitalizations, and 79,400 deaths in 2017-18. Influenza is a particularly complicated disease to prevent as the influenza virus itself changes over time, and unlike vaccinations for measles or hepatitis B, the effectiveness of annual vaccination may be limited if the particular strain that appears in an outbreak is not represented in the vaccine. In addition, the immunity produced by vaccination declines over time, and many individuals, especially the elderly, may lose protection toward the end of an influenza season. The goals of iMPH: Influenza Modeling for Public Health are to bring together four experienced modeling groups including the Public Health Dynamics Laboratory (PHDL) that has significant experience as a MIDAS Center of Excellence in the agent-based modeling of influenza, the Pittsburgh Vaccine Research Group (PittVax), vaccine policy experts who are site leads in both the inpatient and outpatient CDC influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) networks, the DELPHI (Developing the Theory and Practice of Epidemiological Forecasting) group at CMU, the most accurate US influenza prediction group, and the current MIDAS Network Coordination Center (MCC) that brings major data and model coordination expertise. Our specific Aims are to create realistic, biologically based models of influenza, including the development and maintenance of immunity over time through either the development of the disease or vaccination so that we can test the benefit of different prevention strategies in seasonal or pandemic influenza. Specifically, we will examine strategies such as: enhanced vaccines that create high initial antibody levels, the addition of a second, mid-season vaccine, or potentially delaying vaccination in some individuals until later in the season. We will also examine the effectiveness of vaccination policies over a multi-year time, such as different vaccinations for individuals who have had previous influenza, and consideration of every-other year vaccines, Finally we will examine community-level interventions, such as school closures and working from home to impact the spread of influenza over a season. As a CDC Influenza Modeling Center, we will also collaborate with other centers to develop rapid responses to current influenza threats, to share data, models and results to provide higher confidence to the CDC that model-based recommendations can be used to formulate local, state and national influenza policy.

项目摘要季节性流感估计导致 4,880 万人次患病、2,270 万人次就诊、959,000 人次 2017-18 年，住院人数为 79,400 人，死亡人数为 79,400 人。流感是一种特别复杂的疾病，预防方法如下：流感病毒本身会随着时间的推移而发生变化，与麻疹或乙型肝炎疫苗不同，如果爆发中出现的特定菌株没有得到有效控制，每年接种疫苗的效果可能会受到限制。体现在疫苗中。此外，疫苗接种产生的免疫力会随着时间的推移而下降，许多人个人，尤其是老年人，可能会在流感季节结束时失去保护。 iMPH：公共卫生流感建模的目标是将四名经验丰富的建模人员聚集在一起包括具有丰富 MIDAS 经验的公共卫生动态实验室 (PHDL) 在内的团体匹兹堡疫苗研究小组基于药物的流感建模卓越中心 (PittVax)，疫苗政策专家，担任住院和门诊 CDC 流感疫苗的现场负责人有效性 (VE) 网络、DELPHI（发展流行病学预测的理论和实践） CMU 小组、美国最准确的流感预测小组以及当前的 MIDAS 网络协调中心（MCC）带来主要数据和模型协调专业知识。我们的具体目标是创建现实的、基于生物学的流感模型，包括开发和随着时间的推移，通过疾病的发展或疫苗接种来维持免疫力，以便我们可以测试季节性或大流行性流感的不同预防策略的益处。具体来说，我们将检查策略，例如：产生高初始抗体水平的增强型疫苗、添加第二，在季节中期接种疫苗，或者可能将某些人的疫苗接种推迟到季节后期。我们还将研究多年来疫苗接种政策的有效性，例如不同的疫苗接种政策为既往患过流感的个人接种疫苗，并考虑每隔一年接种一次疫苗，最后，我们将研究社区层面的干预措施，例如关闭学校和在家工作影响流感在一个季节的传播。作为 CDC 流感建模中心，我们还将与其他中心合作，制定针对以下情况的快速应对措施：当前的流感威胁，共享数据、模型和结果，使疾病预防控制中心更有信心基于模型的建议可用于制定地方、州和国家流感政策。