A Bayesian Spatio-Temporal Approach for Estimating County-Level Opioid Misuse Rates in Ohio

用于估计俄亥俄州县级阿片类药物滥用率的贝叶斯时空方法

• 批准号: 9600216
• 负责人: Staci Hepler
• 金额: $ 23.22万
• 依托单位: OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2018
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2018-09-15 至 2020-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/9600216
• 关键词: 12 year old; Accounting; Achievement; Address; Admission activity; Adolescent; Adolescent Risk Behavior; Analgesics; Area; Cessation of life; Characteristics; County; Data Collection; Dependence; Discipline; Dose; Drug usage; Environmental Risk Factor; Epidemic; Epidemiology; Expert Opinion; Foundations; Goals; Health Status Indicators; Ice; Individual; Knowledge; Marijuana; Methodology; Modeling; Ohio; Opioid; Pharmaceutical Preparations; Prevalence; Prevention; Prevention program; Property; Proxy; Public Assistance; Reporting; Resource Allocation; Social Desirability; Source; Substance abuse problem; Surveys; Time trend; Translating; Unemployment; United States; United States Dept. of Health and Human Services; Work; base; community intervention; illicit drug use; improved; insight; interest; nonmedical use; novel strategies; opioid misuse; opioid mortality; opioid overdose; overdose death; prescription opioid; simulation; social; spatiotemporal; stem; surveillance data; treatment program

Abstract Opioid misuse is a national epidemic and a significant drug related threat to the United States. While the scale of the opioid misuse problem is undeniable, estimates of the local prevalence of opioid misuse are lacking. Such local estimates are of the utmost importance for optimizing resource allocation for targeted prevention and treatment programs to stem the tide of this epidemic. The goal of this proposal is to develop a new spatio- temporal evidence synthesis approach to estimate county-level rates of opioid misuse. To do so, principles of abundance modeling and evidence synthesis will be used to create a new modeling framework within the Bayesian paradigm. The foundation of the model will be based on abundance modeling which allows the incorporation of county-level social environmental covariate information while accounting for spatial and temporal dependence. Ideas from evidence synthesis will be used to synthesize routine surveillance data which provide indirect information about county-level prevalence and prior information based on expert opinion and external sources. By taking this approach, surveillance data, such as counts of individuals entering treatment for opioid misuse and deaths from opioid misuse, can be leveraged to inform estimation of the actual rates of interest, county-level prevalence of opioid misuse and their association with social environmental factors.

抽象的 阿片类药物滥用是一种全国性流行病，也是对美国的重大毒品相关威胁。虽然规模 阿片类药物滥用问题的严重性是不可否认的，但缺乏对当地阿片类药物滥用流行率的估计。 这种本地估计对于优化资源分配以进行有针对性的预防至关重要 以及遏制这一流行病蔓延的治疗计划。该提案的目标是开发一个新的空间 用于估计县级阿片类药物滥用率的时间证据综合方法。为此，应遵循以下原则： 丰度建模和证据综合将用于在该领域内创建一个新的建模框架 贝叶斯范式。该模型的基础将基于丰度建模，该模型允许 纳入县级社会环境协变量信息，同时考虑空间和 时间依赖性。证据综合的想法将用于综合常规监测数据 提供有关县级患病率的间接信息以及基于专家的先前信息 意见和外部来源。通过采用这种方法，监视数据，例如个人计数 进入阿片类药物滥用的治疗和阿片类药物滥用导致的死亡，可用于估计 实际利率、县级阿片类药物滥用流行率及其与社会的关系 环境因素。