Modeling the Impact of Tobacco Use and Regulations on Vulnerable Populations

模拟烟草使用和法规对弱势群体的影响

• 批准号: 10666148
• 负责人: Rafael Meza
• 金额: $ 49.36万
• 依托单位: UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN AT ANN ARBOR
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2018
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2018-09-14 至 2028-08-31
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/10666148
• 关键词: Address; Affect; Age; Alaska Native; American Indians; Attention; Behavior; Black race; Cigar; Cigar Smoking; Cigarette; Collaborations; Consultations; Data; Data Analyses; Disparate; Education; Educational Status; Electronic Nicotine Delivery Systems; Ethnic Origin; Ethnic Population; Foundations; Future; Health; Hispanic; Hispanic Populations; Individual; Menthol; Modeling; Monitor; National Health Interview Survey; Nicotine; Not Hispanic or Latino; Outcome; Pattern; Policies; Policy Analysis; Policy Maker; Population; Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health; Prevalence; Public Health; Quasi-experiment; Race; Regulation; Relapse; Research; Socioeconomic Status; Subgroup; Surveys; Tobacco; Tobacco use; United States Food and Drug Administration; Update; Variant; Vulnerable Populations; Work; cigarette smoking; college; data modeling; ethnic minority; health disparity; high school; higher education; models and simulation; mortality; polytobacco use; population survey; racial disparity; racial minority; racial population; sex; smoking initiation; smoking prevalence; socioeconomics; systematic review; tobacco flavor; tobacco products; tobacco regulation

PROJECT 4 Abstract Tobacco use varies greatly by race/ethnicity and socioeconomic status (SES) in the US, with unacceptably high cigarette smoking rates in American Indian Alaska Native and low education populations, as well as vulnerable subpopulations at the intersection of race/ethnicity and SES (e.g. non-Hispanic Black (NHB) and non-Hispanic White (NHW) individuals with a high school degree or less). Use of cigars and electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) are highest among NHB and NHW individuals respectively. Tobacco use trajectories are further complicated by characterizing flavors in cigarettes (menthol), cigars, and ENDS, the use of which is concentrated in specific subpopulations. Policymakers are considering flavor restriction policies and other tobacco regulations but lack detailed scientific information about how such policies could affect the US population and vulnerable subgroups. To address this need, we will develop validated tobacco simulation models to project the impact of flavor restrictions on tobacco use and downstream health outcomes among vulnerable racial/ethnic and socioeconomic subgroups. While existing simulation models consider cigarette smoking, with some now also assessing ENDS use, cigar smoking has yet to be included in such models, despite its important implications for tobacco-related health disparities. This project aims to characterize cigarette, cigar, and ENDS patterns of use by race/ethnicity, education, and for vulnerable subgroups at their intersection (Aim 1). We will develop simulation models of cigarette, cigar, and ENDS use for (a) key race/ethnicity groups (NHB, NHW, Hispanics and AIAN), (b) four different education groups (less than high school, high school degree or GED, some college, and college degree or more) and (c) for groups at the intersection of race/ethnicity and education (NHB, NHW, Hispanic individuals of low vs. high educational attainment) (Aim 2). We will estimate the effects of flavor restrictions on cigarette, cigar, and ENDS use by race/ethnicity and education using information from quasi-experimental studies, systematic reviews, and expert consultations (Aim 3). Finally, we plan to project the impact of flavor restrictions on US patterns of tobacco product use and downstream mortality outcomes by race/ethnicity and education, and for key vulnerable groups at their intersection (Aim 4). This will provide a strong foundation for studying the impact of other potential regulations on tobacco-related health outcomes in vulnerable subgroups. As part of the Center for the Assessment of the Tobacco Regulations (CAsToR), this project will provide the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) with much needed external modeling research that evaluates: 1) the impact of flavor restrictions on tobacco use behaviors (Scientific domain: Behavior); 2) the long-term impact of tobacco products and flavor restrictions on health (Scientific domain: Health Effects); and 3) the potential differential impacts of flavor restrictions on key vulnerable populations and tobacco-related health disparities (Scientific domain: Impact Analysis).

项目4摘要 烟草的使用因种族/种族和社会经济地位（SES）而异，但不可接受 美洲印第安人阿拉斯加本地和低教育人口的吸烟率高，以及 种族/种族与SES的交集（例如非西班牙裔黑人（NHB）和 高中学位或更低的非西班牙裔白人（NHW）个人。使用雪茄和电子尼古丁 在NHB和NHW个体中，输送系统（末端）分别是最高的。烟草使用轨迹 通过表征香烟（薄荷醇），雪茄和末端的口味，更复杂的是 集中在特定的亚群中。 政策制定者正在考虑风味限制政策和其他烟草法规，但缺乏详细的科学 有关此类政策如何影响美国人口和弱势亚组的信息。解决这个问题 需要，我们将开发经过验证的烟草模拟模型，以投影风味限制对 弱势种族/种族和社会经济亚组中的烟草使用和下游健康结果。 虽然现有模拟模型考虑吸烟，但现在有些也评估了末端，雪茄 尽管吸烟对与烟草相关的健康有重要影响，但吸烟尚未包含 差异。该项目旨在表征烟，雪茄，并结束种族/种族的使用方式， 教育，以及在其十字路口的脆弱亚组（AIM 1）。我们将开发模拟模型 香烟，雪茄和结尾用于（a）关键种族/种族群体（NHB，NHW，西班牙裔和艾安），（b）四个 不同的教育小组（少于高中，高中学位或GED，一些大学和大学 学位或以上）和（c）在种族/种族与教育的交集中的群体（NHB，NHW，西班牙裔 低受教育程度与高教育程度的个人）（AIM 2）。我们将估计风味限制对 香烟，雪茄和终端使用种族/种族和教育使用准实验的信息 研究，系统评价和专家咨询（AIM 3）。最后，我们计划投影风味的影响 种族/民族的烟草产品使用和下游死亡率结果的限制 教育，以及关键弱势群体的交叉点（AIM 4）。这将为 研究其他潜在法规对弱势亚组中与烟草相关的健康结果的影响。 作为烟草法规评估中心（Castor）的一部分，该项目将提供 食品和药物管理局（FDA），具有急需的外部建模研究，评估：1） 风味限制对烟草使用行为的影响（科学领域：行为）； 2）长期影响 烟草产品和对健康的风味限制（科学领域：健康影响）； 3）潜力 风味限制对关键脆弱人群和与烟草有关的健康差异的差异影响 （科学领域：影响分析）。