USING TEMPORAL VARIATION IN RISK BEHAVIOR TO UNDERSTAND TRENDS IN ADOLESCENT ALCOHOL MISUSE

利用风险行为的时间变化来了解青少年酒精滥用的趋势

• 批准号: 9472493
• 负责人: Richard A Grucza
• 金额: $ 23.24万
• 依托单位: WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2018
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2018-03-15 至 2020-02-29
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/9472493
• 关键词: Address; Adolescent; Adolescent Behavior; Adolescent Risk Behavior; Alcohol consumption; Alcohol or Other Drugs use; Behavior; Behavioral; Complement; Crime; Data; Data Analyses; Data Collection; Development; Discipline; Disinhibition; Drug usage; Environment; Epidemiological trend; Epidemiology; Etiology; Future; Health; Health education; Illicit Drugs; Individual; Individual Differences; Influentials; Lead; Life; Longitudinal Studies; Measurement; Measures; Methodology; Methods; Modeling; Monitor; National Survey of Adolescents; Outcome; Participant; Patient Self-Report; Performance; Personality; Persons; Platelet Factor 4; Population; Population Study; Population trends; Predisposition; Prevalence; Problem behavior; Reporting; Research; Risk; Risk Behaviors; Risk Factors; School-Age Population; Schools; Sex Behavior; Sexual Health; Surveys; Syndrome; Testing; Time; Variant; Violence; adolescent alcohol misuse; adolescent binge drinking; alcohol misuse; binge drinking; epidemiologic data; epidemiology study; externalizing behavior; high school; innovation; insight; interest; novel; parental monitoring; protective factors; psychosocial; public policy on alcohol; response; sexual debut; study population; substance misuse; theories; trait; trend

Project Summary Reductions in the prevalence of multiple adolescent risk behaviors such as binge drinking, use of most illicit drugs, early sexual debut, crime, and violence have occurred in recent decades. It is unknown whether these are separate trends or if they reflect a broader reduction in the propensity to engage in risk behavior. This is an essential question because the potential set of causes for behavior-specific trends is very different from those that might explain a unitary trend related to risk-behavior propensity. Separate trends imply separate, behavior- specific causes (e.g. alcohol policies, sexual health education). But if these concurrent trends reflect a reduction in risk for multiple outcomes, the explanation likely involves individual-level factors such as predisposition to externalizing behaviors. Using 25 years of data from 3 national monitoring surveys, this project will be the first to address this question as it will be the first epidemiological study to examine multiple trends as a behavioral syndrome rather than as separate phenomena. This will involve methodological innovation as it requires multivariate methods that are not typically used in epidemiological trend studies. Informed by Problem Behavior Theory, the overarching purpose of the proposed project is to identify whether reductions in risk behaviors reflect reductions in an underlying trait or “Risk Behavior Syndrome.” The project is significant because characterizing the phenomena is a first step toward understanding its causes. We will also examine changes in theoretically relevant psychosocial risk and protective factors that correlate with trends in risk behaviors. This will shift the focus of our research question from “What?” to “Why?” A broader understanding of individual-level risk and protective factors associated these trends can help refine existing hypotheses about causal factors and may lead to new hypotheses. We will utilize Item Response Theory modeling and tests of measurement invariance over time to examine the degree to which trends in risk behaviors reflect trends in an underlying Risk Behavior Syndrome. We will construct factors related to 4 canonical domains of risk behavior: alcohol and drug use, delinquency, early substance initiation, and sexual behaviors. We will model those as a function of a higher-order factor and incorporate risk and protective factors into the model. This will be the first-ever study of population trends in multiple risk behaviors and the relations among them. We hypothesize that the trends reflect changes in liability for Risk Behavior Syndrome and that this broader trend accounts for much of the decline in binge drinking. Successful accomplishment of these aims will lead to a more comprehensive understanding of secular trends of interest to multiple disciplines and identify salient risk and protective factors. By developing an integrated model of change, we will establish a firm scientific groundwork for formal studies of causality.

项目概要 减少多种青少年危险行为的发生率，例如酗酒、使用大多数非法药物 近几十年来，过早性行为、毒品犯罪和暴力等现象是否时有发生，目前尚不清楚。 是单独的趋势，或者它们是否反映了从事风险行为的倾向的更广泛的减少。 这是一个重要的问题，因为特定行为趋势的潜在原因与那些特定行为趋势的潜在原因非常不同 这也许可以解释与风险行为倾向相关的统一趋势。单独的趋势意味着单独的行为。 但如果这些同时发生的趋势反映了某种特定原因（例如酒精政策、性健康教育）。 多种结果的风险降低，解释可能涉及个人层面的因素，例如 使用来自 3 次国家监测调查的 25 年数据，得出以下结论： 该项目将是第一个解决这个问题的项目，因为它将是第一个检查多种疾病的流行病学研究 趋势作为一种行为综合症而不是作为单独的现象这将涉及方法论。 创新，因为它需要流行病学趋势研究中通常不使用的多变量方法。 根据问题行为理论，拟议项目的首要目的是确定是否 风险行为的减少反映了潜在特征或“风险行为综合症”的减少。 意义重大，因为描述现象的特征是理解其原因的第一步。 检查理论上相关的社会心理风险和与趋势相关的保护因素的变化 这将使我们的研究问题的焦点从“什么？”转向“为什么？” 了解与这些趋势相关的个人风险和保护因素可以帮助完善现有的 关于因果因素的假设并可能导致新的假设。 我们将利用项目响应理论建模和随时间变化的测量不变性测试来检查 风险行为趋势反映潜在风险行为综合症趋势的程度。 与 4 个典型风险行为领域相关的构建因素：酗酒和吸毒、犯罪、过早 我们将把这些作为高阶因素的函数进行建模。 将风险和保护因素纳入模型中。 这将是首次对多种危险行为的人口趋势及其之间的关系进行研究。 我们寻求趋势反映风险行为综合症责任的变化，并且这种更广泛的 这些目标的成功实现将导致酗酒现象的减少。 更全面地了解多个学科感兴趣的长期趋势并确定显着的 通过开发一个综合的变化模型，我们将建立一个牢固的科学模型。 正式因果关系研究的基础。