Modeling Household Dynamics and Land Use

模拟家庭动态和土地利用

• 批准号: 7393641
• 负责人: BARBARA ENTWISLE
• 金额: $ 15.54万
• 依托单位: UNIV OF NORTH CAROLINA CHAPEL HILL
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2007
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2007-03-31 至 2010-02-28
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/7393641
• 关键词: Accounting; Affect; Behavior; Biodiversity; Body of uterus; Characteristics; Communities; Condition; Daily; Data; Decision Making; Demographer; Discipline; Disease; Droughts; Economics; Environment; Floods; Glass; Global Change; Goals; Health; Household; Human; Imagery; Individual; Inequality; Link; Modeling; Movement; Nomads; Out-Migrations; Ownership; Population; Population Process; Process; Remittance; Research; Return Migrations; Role; Running; Scientist; Social Change; Structure; System; Thailand; Time; base; climate change; concept; land cover; land use; member; migration; prototype; research study; simulation; size; social; tool; willingness

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): The proposed research uses an empirically informed agent-based simulation approach to examine the dynamic interrelationships among migration, household assets, and land use within a larger and changing social and biophysical environment. There are three foci: migration and other changes to household membership; choices about the use of specific land parcels; and connecting these two, changes to household wealth, as expressed in the ownership of assets. Feedbacks are an integral part of the system. Migration depends on household size and structure and also on assets; migration returns wealth to the household via remittances. Whether and with what intensity a household grows crops on a particular plot depend on household assets and labor supply as well as on characteristics of the plot such as its suitability; the crops produced supply the subsistence needs of the household and have the potential to return wealth if sold. Each of the three model foci involves a different unit of analysis. Migration and other changes to household membership revolve around individuals. Land use involves spatially referenced plots of land. Individuals and plots are joined through the activities of households. The proposed agent-based simulation integrates these units of observation and analysis into a holistic and dynamic account of migration and land use, incorporating feedbacks over time. In the proposed research, we will draw on empirical analyses of out- migration, return migration, and remittance behavior of household members, of land use at the household and parcel level, and of the consequences of remittances and land use for household assets using unique data for Nang Rong, Thailand to construct a prototype version of the simulation. Predictive realism will be evaluated using satellite imagery for 2001 and 2007, acquired and processed as part of the proposed project. After it is assessed and validated, the prototype agent-based simulation will be used to conduct "experiments" about the consequences of a major flood, a major drought, an economic crisis, and a cultural shift in the willingness of migrants to send remittances for the relationship between migration and land use and for household inequality in the medium (7 years) and long run (25 years). "Proof of concept" is the goal of the application.

描述（由申请人提供）：拟议的研究使用基于经验的基于主体的模拟方法来检查更大且不断变化的社会和生物物理环境中移民、家庭资产和土地利用之间的动态相互关系。重点有三个：移民和家庭成员的其他变化；关于特定地块使用的选择；将两者联系起来的是家庭财富的变化，表现为资产所有权。反馈是系统的一个组成部分。移民取决于家庭规模和结构以及资产；移徙通过汇款将财富返还给家庭。家庭是否以及以何种强度在特定土地上种植农作物取决于家庭资产和劳动力供应以及该土地的特征（例如其适宜性）；生产的农作物可以满足家庭的生存需求，并且如果出售，还有可能返还财富。三个模型焦点中的每一个都涉及不同的分析单元。移民和家庭成员的其他变化以个人为中心。土地利用涉及空间参考的土地。个人和地块通过家庭活动连接起来。所提出的基于代理的模拟将这些观察和分析单元整合到移民和土地利用的整体动态账户中，并结合随时间的反馈。在拟议的研究中，我们将利用对家庭成员的外迁、返乡和汇款行为、家庭和地块层面的土地使用以及汇款和土地使用对家庭资产的影响进行实证分析，并利用独特的泰国 Nang Rong 的数据用于构建模拟的原型版本。预测现实性将使用 2001 年和 2007 年的卫星图像进行评估，这些图像是作为拟议项目的一部分获取和处理的。经过评估和验证后，基于代理的模拟原型将用于针对大洪水、大干旱、经济危机以及移民汇款意愿的文化转变的后果进行“实验”。移民与土地利用之间的关系以及中期（7 年）和长期（25 年）的家庭不平等。 “概念验证”是应用程序的目标。

项目成果

Assessing the Application of a Geographic Presence-Only Model for Land Suitability Mapping.

评估仅地理存在模型在土地适宜性测绘中的应用。

• 发表时间: 2011-09
• 影响因子: 5.1
• 作者: Heumann, Benjamin W;Walsh, Stephen J;McDaniel, Phillip M
• 通讯作者: McDaniel, Phillip M

Changing crops in response to climate: virtual Nang Rong, Thailand in an agent based simulation.

改变农作物以应对气候：基于代理的模拟中的虚拟泰国 Nang Rong。

• DOI: 10.1016/j.apgeog.2014.06.010
• 发表时间: 2014-09-01
• 期刊: Applied geography
• 影响因子: 4.9
• 作者: Malanson, George P.;Verdery, Ashton M.;Walsh, Stephen J.;Sawangdee, Yothin;Heumann, Benjamin W.;McDaniel, Philip M.;Frizzelle, Brian G.;Williams, Nathalie E.;Yao, Xiaozheng;Entwisle, Barbara;Rindfuss, Ronald R.
• 通讯作者: Rindfuss, Ronald R.