PREDICTING VIRAL DYNAMICS, IMMUNE RESPONSE AND EPIDEMIC SPREAD OF MULTI-HOST PAT

预测多宿主病毒的病毒动力学、免疫反应和流行病传播

• 批准号: 8168270
• 负责人: MELANIE MOSES
• 金额: $ 38.44万
• 依托单位: UNIVERSITY OF NEW MEXICO
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2010
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2010-06-01 至 2011-05-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/8168270
• 关键词: Biological; Birds; Blood; Characteristics; Communities; Computer Retrieval of Information on Scientific Projects Database; Computer Simulation; Data; Ecology; Epidemic; Funding; Grant; Health; Human; Immune response; Infection; Institution; Laboratories; Metabolic; Modeling; Physiology; Population; Publishing; Research; Research Personnel; Resources; Source; Testing; Time; United States National Institutes of Health; Viral; Viremia; Virus; West Nile virus; base; field study; innovation; life history; pathogen; theories; vector mosquito

This subproject is one of many research subprojects utilizing the resources provided by a Center grant funded by NIH/NCRR. The subproject and investigator (PI) may have received primary funding from another NIH source, and thus could be represented in other CRISP entries. The institution listed is for the Center, which is not necessarily the institution for the investigator. Many existing and emerging pathogens are multi-host pathogens that cross into human populations. It is difficult to predict how those pathogens will spread, because each species can have very different infectivity, immune response and ecological characteristics. The proposed research uses an innovative and powerful modeling approach that combines biological theory, published data and computer simulations to predict immune response, viral dynamics and epidemic spread from host mass. The research focuses on West Nile Virus (WNV), a pathogen that has spread rapidly across the US with severe consequences to human health. Because WNV is well-studied in the laboratory and in ecological field studies, there is sufficient information to build accurate computer models and to test their predictions. The models predict how WNV spreads within and between bird host species using Metabolic Scaling Theory (MST). MST identifies profound and predictable differences in the physiology, life history and ecology of different species based on their mass. The aims of this project are to predict 1) the time course of viremia in each infective bird species 2) characteristics of bird species that harbor sufficient WNV to infect mosquito vectors, 3) how long those bird species are infective, and 4) which bird communities have a combination of species that enable WNV to persist. MST guides these predictions by relating rates of viral replication, immune response and ecological interaction to mass. Aim 1 predicts the time course of viremia, including the concentration of virus in blood each day post infection and the duration of viremia that is sufficient to infect mosquito vectors. The duration of infective viremia is an important determinant of epidemic spread which is modeled in Aim 2.

该副本是利用众多研究子项目之一 由NIH/NCRR资助的中心赠款提供的资源。子弹和 调查员（PI）可能已经从其他NIH来源获得了主要资金， 因此可以在其他清晰的条目中代表。列出的机构是 对于中心，这不一定是调查员的机构。 许多现有的和新兴的病原体是跨入人类种群的多宿主病原体。很难预测这些病原体将如何扩散，因为每个物种都具有非常不同的感染性，免疫反应和生态特征。拟议的研究使用了一种创新且强大的建模方法，该方法结合了生物学理论，发布数据和计算机模拟，以预测免疫反应，病毒动力学和宿主质量的流行病。 该研究的重点是西尼罗河病毒（WNV），该病原体在美国迅速扩散，对人类健康造成严重后果。由于WNV在实验室和生态领域研究中进行了充分研究，因此有足够的信息来构建准确的计算机模型并测试其预测。这些模型可以通过代谢缩放理论（MST）预测WNV如何在鸟类宿主物种内部和之间传播。 MST根据其质量确定了不同物种的生理学，生命史和生态学的深刻和可预测的差异。 该项目的目的是预测每种感染性鸟类物种中病毒血症的时间过程2）鸟类具有足够WNV感染蚊子向量的鸟类的特征，3）3）这些鸟类感染了多长时间，以及4）哪些鸟类群落具有使WNV持续存在的物种的组合。 MST通过将病毒复制，免疫反应和生态相互作用与质量相关的速率来指导这些预测。 AIM 1预测病毒血症的时间过程，包括感染后每天血液中病毒的浓度以及足以感染蚊子载体的病毒血症的持续时间。感染性病毒血症的持续时间是在AIM 2中建模的流行病扩散的重要决定因素。