Novel Agent-based Approaches for UK Whole Energy Systems Modelling for UK Net-zero Emissions by 2050, with a Focus on Hydrogen Integration

英国整体能源系统建模的基于代理的新型方法，到 2050 年实现英国净零排放，重点关注氢整合

• 批准号: 2891033
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: Imperial College London
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Studentship
• 财政年份: 2023
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2023 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=studentship-2891033
• 关键词: Novel; Agent; based; Approaches; UK

Based on the recommendations from the Climate Change Committee (CCC) outlined in the UK's Sixth Carbon Budget, the UK submitted its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) on 'reducing economy-wide greenhouse gas emissions by at least 68% by 2030, compared to 1990 levels' Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy, 2022). Along with this recommendation, the CCC reflected upon key lessons in their recent insights report (Climate ChangeCommittee, 2023); these include emphasis on the need for sector-level analysis, whole-system optimisation models and scenario analysis which inform important decision-making which facilitates the pathway to Net Zero Emissions (NZE) by 2050.Development and adoption of low-carbon technologies are key to cutting down emissions, consequently their implementation has been laid out in the planning of many countries' net zero pathways. Of these technologies, there has been a rising interest in hydrogen for alternative applications in the power, gas and transport sectors due to its potential as a fuel and storage vector. Having a high gravimetric energy density of 120kJ/g, hydrogen can serve as an efficient fuel for varied uses for example in power generation as well as blending hydrogen gas into natural gas networks for residential and commercial heating (IEA, 2019). The UK has detailed a Hydrogen Strategy to meet the 5GW production target by 2030 in line with the Sixth Carbon Budget (Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy, 2021). Therefore, it is important to consider the integration of hydrogen within the understanding and modelling of the UK energy system.MUSE (ModUlar energy systems Simulation Environment) is a novel open-source AGM environment which can be used to answer many questions relating to changes in a user-modelled energy system over a time (Giarola et al., 2022). MUSE allows the user to model multiple sectors and their respective technologies, commodities and end-use demands within input files which drive the decisions made by the model. Results regarding investment decisions of different agents interacting with the modelled energy system can be sought by the user; these investment decisions are computed on the point of view of the agents (e.g. investors and consumers) and their preferred investment strategies. This serves as a key advantage of MUSE as most models which are based on cost minimisation may offer decisions based on lowest cost which may not be the only investment strategy for different agents interacting within an energy system; for example agents who are more keen to adopt newer technologies in order to reduce their carbon footprint may be less stringent on cost minimisation than those who have a more traditional approach to investment. Another key strength of MUSE is that it assumes that the agents have limited foresight in changes in the energy system as the user can define the number of years in which agents have knowledge of projected prices and demand. These characteristics allow the user to model the system as close to real-life as possible.With the ambitious targets set by the UK government to meet net-zero emissions, whole energy system modelling, covering a variety of sectors within the energy supply chain, will play a crucial role in answering key questions relating to the different pathways to net zero and relevant decision-making. The development of a hydrogen economy in the UK also has many implications within a range of sectors, therefore it is key to investigate its integration into the UK energy system.

根据英国第六次碳预算中气候变化委员会（CCC）提出的建议，英国向联合国气候变化框架公约（UNFCCC）提交了关于“减少整个经济范围内的温室气体排放”的国家自主贡献（NDC）与 1990 年的水平相比，到 2030 年排放量至少减少 68%（商业、能源和工业战略部，2022 年）。除了这一建议之外，CCC 还在其最近的见解报告（气候变化委员会，2023 年）中反思了主要经验教训；其中包括强调部门级分析、全系统优化模型和情景分析的必要性，为重要决策提供信息，从而促进到 2050 年实现净零排放 (NZE)。低碳技术的开发和采用是关键减少排放，因此许多国家的净零路径规划中都包含了其实施。在这些技术中，由于氢作为燃料和存储载体的潜力，人们对氢在电力、天然气和运输领域的替代应用越来越感兴趣。氢气具有 120kJ/g 的高重量能量密度，可作为多种用途的高效燃料，例如用于发电以及将氢气混合到用于住宅和商业供暖的天然气网络中（IEA，2019）。英国根据第六次碳预算（商业、能源和工业战略部，2021 年）制定了详细的氢战略，以在 2030 年实现 5GW 的生产目标。因此，在英国能源系统的理解和建模中考虑氢的整合非常重要。MUSE（ModUlar 能源系统模拟环境）是一种新颖的开源 AGM 环境，可用于回答与能源变化相关的许多问题。一段时间内用户建模的能源系统（Giarola 等人，2022）。 MUSE 允许用户在输入文件中对多个部门及其各自的技术、商品和最终使用需求进行建模，从而驱动模型做出决策。用户可以寻求有关不同代理与建模能源系统交互的投资决策的结果；这些投资决策是根据代理人（例如投资者和消费者）的观点及其偏好的投资策略来计算的。这是 MUSE 的一个关键优势，因为大多数基于成本最小化的模型可以提供基于最低成本的决策，这可能不是能源系统内交互的不同主体的唯一投资策略；例如，那些更热衷于采用更新技术以减少碳足迹的代理商可能比那些采用更传统的投资方法的代理商对成本最小化更加严格。 MUSE 的另一个关键优势是，它假设代理商对能源系统变化的预见性有限，因为用户可以定义代理商了解预计价格和需求的年数。这些特性使用户能够对系统进行尽可能接近现实生活的建模。随着英国政府为实现净零排放而设定的雄心勃勃的目标，整个能源系统建模涵盖了能源供应链中的各个部门，将在回答与净零不同途径和相关决策相关的关键问题方面发挥至关重要的作用。英国氢经济的发展也对一系列行业产生了许多影响，因此研究其融入英国能源系统至关重要。