Populations at the edge: range dynamics and conservation of the Great Crested Newt under global change.

边缘种群：全球变化下大凤头蝾螈的分布范围动态和保护。

• 批准号: 2888979
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: University of Aberdeen
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Studentship
• 财政年份: 2023
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2023 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=studentship-2888979
• 关键词: Populations; edge; range; dynamics; conservation

Under anthropogenic exploitation and rapid environmental changes, many species are challenged with novel conditions, some are shifting their ranges moving to new suitable areas, and many are now threatened or extinct.Populations at the edges of species' range are key and often the most vulnerable: they are small, fragmented and less connected; harbour low genetic diversity and occupy suboptimal habitat; often face multiple anthropogenic stressors such as habitat loss and deterioration. However, populations that are at the range leading margin (the edge towards the direction of climate change) are key for successful species' range shifting: they already occupy locations where suitability will improve and thus could potentially readily expand, and might possess unique and locally favourable genetic variants. Understanding how these populations will respond to environmental change, both ecologically and evolutionarily, whether they will be able to persist under multiple natural and anthropogenic stressors, and how better we can assist them in this process, is crucial for effective species' conservation under global change.Predictive process-based models, that integrate the fundamental processes shaping species' ecology and adaptive responses, such as genetic variation, demography and dispersal, together with assessing impacts of multiple environmental stressors, are a powerful tool to both better understanding species' range dynamics and making better predictions of likely species' responses to future environmental change. These models are being developed, and they are now ripe for testing and for applications of conservation relevance.Amphibians are declining globally and are a high priority for biodiversity conservation. They are particularly vulnerable to multiple stressors as they rely on wetlands, an ecosystem particularly challenged by climate change and habitat loss, and are threatened by invasive species, diseases and pollution. The great crested newt Triturus cristatus is a declining species in Europe. In Britain it is an important wetland flagship species and has shown the highest rate of decline in recent years amongst native amphibians. In Scotland, T. cristatus is uncommon, with a restricted and fragmented range and, importantly, Scotland represents the north-west range of the species' world range. Critically, the species has a disjoint distribution in Scotland with an 80 km gap between the most northerly site in Fife and the most southerly Highland site. Much suitable unoccupied habitat has been identified and more is predicted to become suitable with climate change, creating potential for these edge populations to expand their range. However, multiple threats such has increasing habitat fragmentation, due to urbanization, agricultural changes and industrial developments, increasing drought, reduced genetic diversity, and increasing risk of predation from non-native species such as the signal crayfish and American mink, make it extremely uncertain whether this expansion and persistence will be at all possible.T. cristatus is thus an excellent and important species for investigating ecological and adaptive responses to environmental changes of populations at the warming range margins, and for applying new integrated process-based methods to predict these responses and guide conservation interventions.The overall aim of this project is to understand and predict the persistence of T. cristatus in Scotland under ongoing climate change and multiple stressors, and its potential expansion from marginal populations, to inform conservation management, moving towards a pro-active, rather than reactive, management of declining amphibians under global change.

在人为的剥削和快速的环境变化下，许多物种受到新颖条件的挑战，有些物种将其范围转移到新的合适的区域，现在许多物种受到威胁或灭绝。物种范围的群体的群体是关键，通常是最脆弱的。 ：它们很小，分散且连接较少；怀有低遗传多样性，占据了次优的栖息地；通常会面临多个人为压力源，例如栖息地丧失和恶化。但是，处于领先边缘的范围（朝着气候变化方向的边缘）是成功物种范围转移的关键：他们已经占据了适合性会提高的位置，因此可能会很容易扩展，并可能拥有独特的和本地的地方有利的遗传变异。了解这些人群将如何在生态和进化上对环境变化做出反应，无论他们是否能够在多种自然和人为压力源下持续存在，以及我们如何在这一过程中提供更好的帮助，对于在全球变化下的有效物种保护至关重要。预测性基于过程的模型，这些模型整合了塑造物种生态学和适应性反应的基本过程，例如遗传变异，人口统计学和分散，以及评估多种环境压力源的影响，是更好地理解物种的范围动态的强大工具并更好地预测可能物种对未来环境变化的反应。这些模型正在开发中，现在它们已经成熟进行测试，并且针对保护相关性的应用。Amphibians在全球范围内正在下降，并且是生物多样性保护的高优先事项。他们特别容易受到多种压力源的影响，因为它们依靠湿地，这是一个受气候变化和栖息地丧失挑战的生态系统，并受到入侵物种，疾病和污染的威胁。伟大的new triturus cristatus是欧洲下降的物种。在英国，这是一个重要的湿地旗舰物种，近年来在本地两栖动物中显示出最高的下降率。在苏格兰，克里斯塔图斯（T. cristatus）并不常见，范围有限且零散，苏格兰代表了该物种世界范围的西北范围。至关重要的是，该物种在苏格兰的分布分布，在Fife和最南端的高地最北端的地点之间有80公里的间隙。已经确定了许多合适的无人居住的栖息地，并且预计会有更多适合气候变化的人，从而为这些边缘种群扩大其范围创造了潜力。但是，由于城市化，农业变化和工业发展，干旱增加，遗传多样性的增加以及从非本地物种（例如信号小龙虾和美国林木）的捕食风险增加，这种栖息地分裂的多种威胁会增加栖息地的破碎化。这种扩展和持久性是否将是完全可能的。因此，Cristatus是一个非常重要的物种，用于调查对温暖范围内人群环境变化的生态和适应性反应，并用于应用基于过程的新方法来预测这些响应和指导保护干预措施。该项目的总体目的是了解和预测苏格兰的T. cristatus在持续的气候变化和多种压力源以及其从边际人群中的潜在扩展，以为保护管理提供信息，朝着积极主动而不是反应性的管理下，而不是全球下降的管理，改变。