Efficient Emulation of Earth System Processes for Adaptation and Mitigation

有效模拟地球系统适应和缓解过程

• 批准号: 2888856
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: University of Leeds
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Studentship
• 财政年份: 2023
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2023 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=studentship-2888856
• 关键词: Efficient; Emulation; Earth; System; Processes

Climate model emulators are simplified representations of more complex climate models and are becoming increasingly important to the IPCC. This is because emulators can be run quickly, much faster than complex Earth System models (ESMs), and flexibly, for example to be set up to replicate the large-scale behaviour of existing ESMs. This means they can be run probabilistically to sample the full range of uncertainty in future climate change and be applied to any conceivable emissions scenario and not just the handful of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) that are analysed in ESMs. The Finite-amplitude Impulse Response (FaIR) emulator was used in the IPCC's Special Report on 1.5 degrees Celcius (2018) and Sixth Assessment Report for the contributions of Working Group 1 (2021) and Working Group 3 (forthcoming in 2022) to provide global mean temperature and radiative forcing projections, and can easily be adapted to sea-level rise. This project will develop FaIR by including Earth System feedbacks that are not currently present in the model, such as permafrost, methane wetlands and the nitrogen cycle. This will involve analysing simulations from Earth System models and determining a simple framework that can adequately replicate these behaviours. The importance of these individual feedbacks can be assessed by comparing the outputs to the database of scenarios provided in the IPCC Working Group 3 that focuses on pathways to mitigate climate change. In addition, in order to provide policy-relevant science, FaIR can be coupled to a regional emulator to determine the risks of extreme weather events in important world regions under different levels of warming. This studentship will link closely with and feed into Met Office projects and goals, including the Hadley Centre Climate Programme. The project will directly contribute to developing the Met Office's simple climate modelling capability to be able to provide rapid assessment of new scenarios designed to meet Paris agreement targets. Under the project, the student will use software development best practices to develop the model. As part of the CASE programme there is the opportunity to spend time at the Met Office to work directly with the Met Office Climate Impacts Team. There may also be potential to collaborate with external partners in Switzerland and Austria on linking the emulator to integrated assessment models.

气候模型模拟器是更复杂的气候模型的简化表示，对 IPCC 来说变得越来越重要。这是因为模拟器可以快速运行，比复杂的地球系统模型 (ESM) 快得多，并且可以灵活地运行，例如可以设置为复制现有 ESM 的大规模行为。这意味着它们可以概率性地运行，以对未来气候变化的全部不确定性进行采样，并应用于任何可以想象的排放情景，而不仅仅是 ESM 中分析的少数共享社会经济路径 (SSP)。 IPCC 关于 1.5 摄氏度的特别报告（2018 年）和第 1 工作组（2021 年）和第 3 工作组（即将于 2022 年发布）贡献的第六次评估报告中使用了有限振幅脉冲响应（FaIR）模拟器，以提供全球平均温度和辐射强迫预测，并且可以轻松适应海平面上升。该项目将通过纳入目前模型中不存在的地球系统反馈来开发 FaIR，例如永久冻土、甲烷湿地和氮循环。这将涉及分析地球系统模型的模拟并确定一个可以充分复制这些行为的简单框架。这些个人反馈的重要性可以通过将输出与IPCC第三工作组提供的情景数据库进行比较来评估，该工作组重点关注减缓气候变化的途径。此外，为了提供与政策相关的科学，FaIR可以与区域模拟器相结合，以确定世界重要地区在不同变暖水平下发生极端天气事件的风险。该学生奖学金将与英国气象局的项目和目标紧密联系并为其提供支持，其中包括哈德利中心气候计划。该项目将直接有助于开发英国气象局的简单气候建模能力，以便能够对旨在满足巴黎协定目标的新情景进行快速评估。在该项目下，学生将使用软件开发最佳实践来开发模型。作为 CASE 计划的一部分，您将有机会在英国气象局直接与英国气象局气候影响团队合作。还可能与瑞士和奥地利的外部合作伙伴合作，将模拟器与综合评估模型联系起来。