Efficient Emulation of Earth System Processes for Adaptation and Mitigation

有效模拟地球系统适应和缓解过程

• 批准号: 2888856
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: University of Leeds
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Studentship
• 财政年份: 2023
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2023 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=studentship-2888856
• 关键词: Efficient; Emulation; Earth; System; Processes; Efficient; Emulation; Earth; System; Processes

Climate model emulators are simplified representations of more complex climate models and are becoming increasingly important to the IPCC. This is because emulators can be run quickly, much faster than complex Earth System models (ESMs), and flexibly, for example to be set up to replicate the large-scale behaviour of existing ESMs. This means they can be run probabilistically to sample the full range of uncertainty in future climate change and be applied to any conceivable emissions scenario and not just the handful of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) that are analysed in ESMs. The Finite-amplitude Impulse Response (FaIR) emulator was used in the IPCC's Special Report on 1.5 degrees Celcius (2018) and Sixth Assessment Report for the contributions of Working Group 1 (2021) and Working Group 3 (forthcoming in 2022) to provide global mean temperature and radiative forcing projections, and can easily be adapted to sea-level rise. This project will develop FaIR by including Earth System feedbacks that are not currently present in the model, such as permafrost, methane wetlands and the nitrogen cycle. This will involve analysing simulations from Earth System models and determining a simple framework that can adequately replicate these behaviours. The importance of these individual feedbacks can be assessed by comparing the outputs to the database of scenarios provided in the IPCC Working Group 3 that focuses on pathways to mitigate climate change. In addition, in order to provide policy-relevant science, FaIR can be coupled to a regional emulator to determine the risks of extreme weather events in important world regions under different levels of warming. This studentship will link closely with and feed into Met Office projects and goals, including the Hadley Centre Climate Programme. The project will directly contribute to developing the Met Office's simple climate modelling capability to be able to provide rapid assessment of new scenarios designed to meet Paris agreement targets. Under the project, the student will use software development best practices to develop the model. As part of the CASE programme there is the opportunity to spend time at the Met Office to work directly with the Met Office Climate Impacts Team. There may also be potential to collaborate with external partners in Switzerland and Austria on linking the emulator to integrated assessment models.

气候模型模拟器是更复杂的气候模型的简化表示形式，并且对IPCC变得越来越重要。这是因为模拟器可以快速运行，比复杂的接地系统模型（ESM）快得多，并且灵活地设置了以复制现有ESM的大规模行为。这意味着它们可以概率地运行，以品尝未来气候变化的全部不确定性范围，并应用于任何可能的排放场景，而不仅仅是ESMS中分析的少数共享社会经济途径（SSP）。 IPCC的特别报告中使用了有限的振幅脉冲响应（公平）模拟器，涉及1.5度Celcius（2018）和第六次评估报告，用于工作组1（2021）（2021年）和工作组3（2022年即将出版）的贡献，以提供全球平均温度和辐射强迫预测的预测，并且可以轻松地适应海上的升高。该项目将通过包括当前在模型中不存在的地球系统反馈（例如多年冻土，甲烷湿地和氮循环）来发展公平。这将涉及分析地球系统模型的模拟，并确定一个可以充分复制这些行为的简单框架。这些各个反馈的重要性可以通过将输出与IPCC工作组3中提供的方案数据库进行比较来评估，该输出侧重于减轻气候变化的途径。此外，为了提供与政策相关的科学，可以将公平与区域模拟器结合起来，以确定重要世界上重要的世界地区极端天气事件的风险。该学生将与包括哈德利中心气候计划在内的大都会办公项目和目标紧密联系并融入到大都会的办公项目和目标。该项目将直接有助于开发大都会办公室的简单气候建模能力，以便能够对旨在满足巴黎协定目标的新场景进行快速评估。在项目下，学生将使用软件开发最佳实践来开发模型。作为案例计划的一部分，有机会在大都会办公室花费时间直接与大都会办公室的气候影响团队合作。也可能有潜力与瑞士和奥地利的外部合作伙伴合作，将模拟器与综合评估模型联系起来。