Effects of rapid Arctic climate change on jet streams and extreme weather (Ref 4606)
北极气候快速变化对急流和极端天气的影响(参考文献 4606)
基本信息
- 批准号:2859553
- 负责人:
- 金额:--
- 依托单位:
- 依托单位国家:英国
- 项目类别:Studentship
- 财政年份:2023
- 资助国家:英国
- 起止时间:2023 至 无数据
- 项目状态:未结题
- 来源:
- 关键词:
项目摘要
Project BackgroundThe lower atmospheric warming as a result of manmade CO2 emissions is several times larger in the Arctic than in other parts of the world (see figure 1), a phenomenon known as Arctic Amplification. The importance of this amplified warming could extend well beyond the Arctic, however. The midlatitude jet streams (figure 2), and their associated storm tracks, are effectively powered by the temperature difference between the warmer low latitudes and the colder high latitudes. Arctic amplification decreases this temperature gradient in the lowermost atmosphere, potentially impacting the jet stream and storms. Such changes could lead to an increase in extreme weather, which is a particular concern for the lives and livelihoods of the billions of people who live under the path of the jet stream [e.g., Cohen et al., 2014]. Arctic amplification is a robust phenomenon that appears clearly in state-of-the art climate models, and is relatively well understood. However, the response of the jet stream to Arctic amplification is far more uncertain, and varies substantially between different climate model experiments (Screen et al., 2018; Screen and Blackport, 2019). Until we better understand the ways that the jet stream is affected by Arctic amplification, we cannot skilfully predict future changes in extreme weather, which is a significant problem. This lack of a robust jet stream response across models may reflect differences in how they simulate the present-day climate. For example, the average location of the jet stream is further north in some models than others, which might affect how strongly the jet stream is affected by Arctic amplification in a one model compared to another (Smith et al., 2017). In addition, Arctic amplification occurs alongside other robust features of climate change, including the tropical upper-tropospheric warming that will also influence the behaviour of the midlatitude jet. Understanding how these processes interact, and what their combined effect is on the jet stream is of significant interest. By understanding what causes models to differ, we seek to reduce uncertainty in future projections of midlatitude climate and extreme weather.Project Aims and MethodsWe will conduct experiments using a new, relatively simple but highly configurable global climate model known as Isca, developed by Dr Thomson and others at Exeter (execlim.github.io/IscaWebsite/). Isca has the ability, unlike most climate models, to be able to turn relevant processes on and off, and to 'nudge' the atmosphere to different background states. By using these features, we can investigate how jet stream responds to Arctic amplification in a controlled manner, and ascertain which processes are the most important. We will also make use of output of new experiments already run using sophisticated climate models as part of the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP; Smith et al., 2019) lead by Dr Smith and Prof Screen. We will combine the data from PAMIP and results from more traditional all-forcing experiments from CMIP6, as well as results from Isca to understand better how biases in present day climate can influence predictions of jet stream properties, and the impacts on extreme weather.
项目背景 北极地区因人为二氧化碳排放而导致的大气变暖程度是世界其他地区的几倍(见图 1),这种现象被称为“北极放大”。然而,这种加剧的变暖的重要性可能远远超出北极范围。中纬度急流(图 2)及其相关的风暴路径,有效地由较温暖的低纬度地区和较冷的高纬度地区之间的温差提供动力。北极放大降低了最低大气层的温度梯度,可能会影响急流和风暴。这种变化可能导致极端天气的增加,这对生活在急流路径下的数十亿人的生命和生计尤其令人担忧[例如,Cohen 等人,2014 年]。北极放大是一种强烈的现象,在最先进的气候模型中清晰可见,并且相对较好地理解。然而,急流对北极放大的响应更加不确定,并且在不同的气候模型实验之间存在很大差异(Screen et al., 2018;Screen and Blackport, 2019)。在我们更好地了解急流受北极放大影响的方式之前,我们无法熟练地预测极端天气的未来变化,这是一个重大问题。各个模型缺乏强大的急流响应可能反映了它们模拟当今气候的方式存在差异。例如,在某些模型中,急流的平均位置比其他模型更靠北,这可能会影响一个模型与另一个模型相比急流受北极放大影响的程度(Smith 等,2017)。此外,北极的放大与气候变化的其他强烈特征一起发生,包括热带对流层上层变暖,这也将影响中纬度急流的行为。了解这些过程如何相互作用以及它们对急流的综合影响具有重要意义。通过了解导致模型不同的原因,我们寻求减少未来中纬度气候和极端天气预测的不确定性。项目目标和方法我们将使用汤姆森博士开发的一种新的、相对简单但高度可配置的全球气候模型 Isca 进行实验以及埃克塞特的其他人 (execlim.github.io/IscaWebsite/)。与大多数气候模型不同,伊斯卡有能力打开和关闭相关过程,并将大气“推动”到不同的背景状态。通过使用这些特征,我们可以研究急流如何以受控方式响应北极放大,并确定哪些过程是最重要的。我们还将利用已经使用复杂的气候模型进行的新实验的输出,作为由史密斯博士和屏幕教授领导的极地放大模型比对项目(PAMIP;史密斯等人,2019)的一部分。我们将结合 PAMIP 的数据、CMIP6 更传统的全强迫实验的结果以及 Isca 的结果,以更好地了解当今气候的偏差如何影响急流特性的预测以及对极端天气的影响。
项目成果
期刊论文数量(0)
专著数量(0)
科研奖励数量(0)
会议论文数量(0)
专利数量(0)
数据更新时间:{{ journalArticles.updateTime }}
{{
item.title }}
{{ item.translation_title }}
- DOI:
{{ item.doi }} - 发表时间:
{{ item.publish_year }} - 期刊:
- 影响因子:{{ item.factor }}
- 作者:
{{ item.authors }} - 通讯作者:
{{ item.author }}
数据更新时间:{{ journalArticles.updateTime }}
{{ item.title }}
- 作者:
{{ item.author }}
数据更新时间:{{ monograph.updateTime }}
{{ item.title }}
- 作者:
{{ item.author }}
数据更新时间:{{ sciAawards.updateTime }}
{{ item.title }}
- 作者:
{{ item.author }}
数据更新时间:{{ conferencePapers.updateTime }}
{{ item.title }}
- 作者:
{{ item.author }}
数据更新时间:{{ patent.updateTime }}
其他文献
Products Review
- DOI:
10.1177/216507996201000701 - 发表时间:
1962-07 - 期刊:
- 影响因子:2.6
- 作者:
- 通讯作者:
Farmers' adoption of digital technology and agricultural entrepreneurial willingness: Evidence from China
- DOI:
10.1016/j.techsoc.2023.102253 - 发表时间:
2023-04 - 期刊:
- 影响因子:9.2
- 作者:
- 通讯作者:
Digitization
- DOI:
10.1017/9781316987506.024 - 发表时间:
2019-07 - 期刊:
- 影响因子:0
- 作者:
- 通讯作者:
References
- DOI:
10.1002/9781119681069.refs - 发表时间:
2019-12 - 期刊:
- 影响因子:0
- 作者:
- 通讯作者:
Putrescine Dihydrochloride
- DOI:
10.15227/orgsyn.036.0069 - 发表时间:
1956-01-01 - 期刊:
- 影响因子:0
- 作者:
- 通讯作者:
的其他文献
{{
item.title }}
{{ item.translation_title }}
- DOI:
{{ item.doi }} - 发表时间:
{{ item.publish_year }} - 期刊:
- 影响因子:{{ item.factor }}
- 作者:
{{ item.authors }} - 通讯作者:
{{ item.author }}
{{ truncateString('', 18)}}的其他基金
An implantable biosensor microsystem for real-time measurement of circulating biomarkers
用于实时测量循环生物标志物的植入式生物传感器微系统
- 批准号:
2901954 - 财政年份:2028
- 资助金额:
-- - 项目类别:
Studentship
Exploiting the polysaccharide breakdown capacity of the human gut microbiome to develop environmentally sustainable dishwashing solutions
利用人类肠道微生物群的多糖分解能力来开发环境可持续的洗碗解决方案
- 批准号:
2896097 - 财政年份:2027
- 资助金额:
-- - 项目类别:
Studentship
A Robot that Swims Through Granular Materials
可以在颗粒材料中游动的机器人
- 批准号:
2780268 - 财政年份:2027
- 资助金额:
-- - 项目类别:
Studentship
Likelihood and impact of severe space weather events on the resilience of nuclear power and safeguards monitoring.
严重空间天气事件对核电和保障监督的恢复力的可能性和影响。
- 批准号:
2908918 - 财政年份:2027
- 资助金额:
-- - 项目类别:
Studentship
Proton, alpha and gamma irradiation assisted stress corrosion cracking: understanding the fuel-stainless steel interface
质子、α 和 γ 辐照辅助应力腐蚀开裂:了解燃料-不锈钢界面
- 批准号:
2908693 - 财政年份:2027
- 资助金额:
-- - 项目类别:
Studentship
Field Assisted Sintering of Nuclear Fuel Simulants
核燃料模拟物的现场辅助烧结
- 批准号:
2908917 - 财政年份:2027
- 资助金额:
-- - 项目类别:
Studentship
Assessment of new fatigue capable titanium alloys for aerospace applications
评估用于航空航天应用的新型抗疲劳钛合金
- 批准号:
2879438 - 财政年份:2027
- 资助金额:
-- - 项目类别:
Studentship
Developing a 3D printed skin model using a Dextran - Collagen hydrogel to analyse the cellular and epigenetic effects of interleukin-17 inhibitors in
使用右旋糖酐-胶原蛋白水凝胶开发 3D 打印皮肤模型,以分析白细胞介素 17 抑制剂的细胞和表观遗传效应
- 批准号:
2890513 - 财政年份:2027
- 资助金额:
-- - 项目类别:
Studentship
Understanding the interplay between the gut microbiome, behavior and urbanisation in wild birds
了解野生鸟类肠道微生物组、行为和城市化之间的相互作用
- 批准号:
2876993 - 财政年份:2027
- 资助金额:
-- - 项目类别:
Studentship
相似国自然基金
基于电卡效应的迅速冷热响应驱动双向形状记忆材料与结构研究
- 批准号:
- 批准年份:2021
- 资助金额:30 万元
- 项目类别:青年科学基金项目
迅速进化的入侵植物:利用基因组学揭示桉树的进化历史及其入侵机制
- 批准号:
- 批准年份:2020
- 资助金额:24 万元
- 项目类别:青年科学基金项目
迅速冷却等离子体射流中粒子形成过程的实验研究
- 批准号:11975185
- 批准年份:2019
- 资助金额:65 万元
- 项目类别:面上项目
灌木柴桦在我国高纬度地区湿地生态系统迅速扩张生境的机制
- 批准号:41901054
- 批准年份:2019
- 资助金额:26.0 万元
- 项目类别:青年科学基金项目
麦二叉蚜唾液中导致小麦迅速黄化的关键致害因子鉴定及其作用机理
- 批准号:31901881
- 批准年份:2019
- 资助金额:25.0 万元
- 项目类别:青年科学基金项目
相似海外基金
RAPID: Impacts of Deposition from Smoke-derived Black Carbon on the Greenland Ice Sheet and the Greater Arctic Cryosphere due to Transport from Record Setting Canadian Wildfires
RAPID:由于创纪录的加拿大野火的运输,烟雾产生的黑碳沉积对格陵兰冰盖和大北极冰冻圈的影响
- 批准号:
2336072 - 财政年份:2023
- 资助金额:
-- - 项目类别:
Standard Grant
NNA Research: Collaborative Research: Rapid Arctic change and its implications for fisheries and fishing communities of the western North Atlantic
NNA 研究:合作研究:北极的快速变化及其对北大西洋西部渔业和渔业社区的影响
- 批准号:
2220564 - 财政年份:2023
- 资助金额:
-- - 项目类别:
Standard Grant
NNA Research: Collaborative Research: Rapid Arctic change and its implications for fisheries and fishing communities of the western North Atlantic
NNA 研究:合作研究:北极的快速变化及其对北大西洋西部渔业和渔业社区的影响
- 批准号:
2220566 - 财政年份:2023
- 资助金额:
-- - 项目类别:
Standard Grant
NNA Research: Collaborative Research: Rapid Arctic change and its implications for fisheries and fishing communities of the western North Atlantic
NNA 研究:合作研究:北极的快速变化及其对北大西洋西部渔业和渔业社区的影响
- 批准号:
2220567 - 财政年份:2023
- 资助金额:
-- - 项目类别:
Standard Grant
NNA Research: Collaborative Research: Rapid Arctic change and its implications for fisheries and fishing communities of the western North Atlantic
NNA 研究:合作研究:北极的快速变化及其对北大西洋西部渔业和渔业社区的影响
- 批准号:
2220565 - 财政年份:2023
- 资助金额:
-- - 项目类别:
Standard Grant