Effects of coastal change in the selection of a geological disposal facility

海岸变化对地质处置设施选择的影响

• 批准号: 2764552
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: Imperial College London
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Studentship
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2022 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=studentship-2764552
• 关键词: Effects; coastal; change; selection; geological

The purpose of the present project is to develop methodologies appropriate to the description of coastal evolution under a changing climate around the UK. This will be achieved by a combination of improved physical understanding of the coastal system and advanced statistical and numerical techniques. In integrating the detailed modelling of coastal processes into long-term climate prediction, the research outcomes will provide the necessary tools to predict coastal change intime scales ranging from 100s to 100,000s years. The main objectives of the project are summarised as follows:Develop process-based simulations of coastal change using dynamically downscaled global climate around UK coasts. Incorporate human interventions (coastal protection structures) and additional sediment source/sink terms in coastal evolution modelling. Dimensional reduction of morphodynamic loops using improved physical understanding and advanced statistical methods (surrogate modelling, storm sequencing). Provide am improved representation of coastal change in short-term time scales (100s of years) under climate change scenarios obtained from IPCC predictions. Integrate the short-term methodology into long-term predictions (100,000s of years). Quantify the uncertainty in models.This information will provide critical insights regarding the selection and assessment of coastal sites as potential Geological Disposal Facilities and provide a sound basis for assessing their safety in the long term.

本项目的目的是开发适合描述英国周围气候变化下海岸演化的方法。这将通过结合提高对沿海系统的物理了解和先进的统计和数值技术来实现。通过将沿海过程的详细模型整合到长期气候预测中，研究成果将为预测数百年至十万年的海岸变化提供必要的工具。该项目的主要目标概述如下：利用英国海岸周围动态缩小的全球气候，开发基于过程的沿海变化模拟。将人类干预（海岸保护结构）和额外的沉积物源/汇项纳入海岸演化建模中。使用改进的物理理解和先进的统计方法（替代建模、风暴排序）对形态动力学环进行降维。提供从 IPCC 预测获得的气候变化情景下短期时间尺度（数百年）沿海变化的改进表示。将短期方法整合到长期预测（数十万年）中。量化模型中的不确定性。这些信息将为选择和评估沿海地点作为潜在的地质处置设施提供重要见解，并为评估其长期安全性提供坚实的基础。