Predictability of European marine climate over seasons to decades

欧洲海洋气候从季节到几十年的可预测性

• 批准号: 1642851
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: University of East Anglia
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Studentship
• 财政年份: 2015
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2015 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=studentship-1642851
• 关键词: Predictability; European; marine; climate; over

The underlying ocean warming trend associated with anthropogenic climate change is superimposed upon naturalvariability of the climate system on interannual to multi-decadal timescales and between regions. The result is that, evenwith a long-term 'anthropogenic' warming trend, in different regions there will be some decades in the future that will showparticularly strong warming while others will exhibit little change or even cooling. This shorter timescale climate changeover seasons to decades is particularly relevant to marine managers at national and international level, which has led to thedevelopment of this Industrial CASE project between Cefas and the University of East Anglia. The collaboration bringstogether academic expertise in climate modelling and prediction and government science provision in marine managementand policy advice.Answering the question of what could happen in the future has generally been undertaken using climate projections wherea climate model run under a particular emissions scenario is used to examine plausible conditions 50 to 100 years in thefuture. For instance, phase three of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) contributed the climate projectionsto the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).In recent years studies examining both coupled atmosphere-ocean models and empirical statistical models have begun todemonstrate the potential for skillful climate predictions on decadal time scales particularly in the North Atlantic regionassociated with the Atlantic Meridional Oscillation (AMO). Furthermore, it has recently been shown that the AMO is animportant contributor to ecosystem change in the seas around UK and Ireland. Whilst remaining a number of years away the combination of improved understanding of the influence of Atlantic variability on UK marine ecosystems together withshort term 'climate' predictions presents the possibility of ecosystem forecasts on seasonal to decadal timescales becomingpart of national and international marine management.The current phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) comprises long-term (century time scale)simulations initialised from free running models as produced in previous CMIPs. However it additionally provides near-term(decadal) forecasts that are initialised from an observed ocean state. Ten-year forecasts are produced every 5 years from1960 to 2005, with optional additional forecasts for more recent years. The decadal forecast programme allowscontributions to CMIP5 from relatively high-resolution models. This is important in the context of the project, as it has beendemonstrated that higher resolution models have the capability to provide more regional detail than conventionalCMIP/IPCC class models.Most of the work on decadal predictability has focussed on global and basin scale predictions, or on important outcomes formainstream terrestrial users. Here the student will use the output from the CMIP5 decadal forecast programme to answerthe following key questions:(i) Are elements of the marine climate (for example, temperature, salinity, wind) predictable on the time scales (seasons todecades) and space scales (for example, U.K. Exclusive Economic Zone, ICES Ecosystem Assessment Regions) relevantto marine policy makers and managers?(ii) What are the uncertainties and causes of any predictability?(iii) What types of seasonal-decadal forecast methods are most appropriate for different marine users on differenttimescales?

与人为气候变化相关的潜在海洋变暖趋势叠加在气候系统对年际与多年时间尺度以及区域之间的自然变化之上。结果是，与长期的“人为”变暖趋势一样，在不同地区，将来将有几十年的时间展现出强烈的变暖，而其他地区则会显示出很少的变化甚至冷却。这个较短的时间尺度的气候转换季节到数十年尤其与国家和国际一级的海洋经理有关，这导致了CEFAS和East Anglia大学之间这个工业案例项目的发展。这项合作将海事管理和政策建议中的气候建模和预测和政府科学规定方面的学术专业知识带入了学术专业知识。避开问题的问题通常是使用气候预测在特定排放情况下运行的气候模型进行的，用于检查thefuture中50至100年的特定排放情况下运行的情况。例如，耦合模型对比项目的第三阶段（CMIP3）贡献了气候预测的第四次评估报告，该报告的第四次评估报告（IPCC）在近年来研究了偶导的大气 - 环境 - 偏见模型和经验统计模型的潜力，以跨越的范围进行了预测，该模型尤其是在跨越的范围内，跨越了跨越的范围。大西洋子午振荡（AMO）。此外，最近已经证明，AMO是英国和爱尔兰海洋生态系统变化的动画贡献者。同时还没有多年的历史，同时对大西洋变异性对英国海洋生态系统的影响的了解的结合逐渐消失了，同时又逐渐地“气候”预测提出了生态系统预测对季节到际时代到衰老时间尺度的可能性的可能性，成为国家和国际海洋管理的阶段。以前的CMIP中产生的免费运行模型。然而，它还提供了从观察到的海洋状态初始化的近期（十年）预测。从1960年到2005年，每5年进行十年预测，近年来还提供可选的额外预测。十年预测程序允许从相对高分辨率模型到CMIP5的构成。这在项目的背景下很重要，因为它已经证明了高分辨率模型具有比传统的alcmip/ipcc类模型提供更多区域细节的能力。关于衰老的可预测性的大部分工作都集中在全球和盆地规模的预测上，或者重要的是重要的成果。 Here the student will use the output from the CMIP5 decadal forecast programme to answerthe following key questions:(i) Are elements of the marine climate (for example, temperature, salinity, wind) predictable on the time scales (seasons todecades) and space scales (for example, U.K. Exclusive Economic Zone, ICES Ecosystem Assessment Regions) relevantto marine policy makers and managers?(ii) What are the uncertainties and causes of有任何可预测性吗？（iii）哪种类型的季节性预测方法最适合不同timesscales上不同的海洋用户？