People-Centered Tsunami early Warning for the INdian coastlines (PCTWIN)

印度海岸线以人为本的海啸预警 (PCTWIN)

• 批准号: NE/Z503496/1
• 负责人: Fatemeh Jalayer
• 金额: $ 115.96万
• 依托单位: University College London
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2024
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2024 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FZ503496%2F1
• 关键词: People; Centered; Tsunami; early; Warning

The United Nations has called for every person on earth to be covered by warning systems. Tsunami events are responsible for greatest of losses compared to other more frequent hazards. The Indian coastlines, which are some of the most populated areas in the world, are prone to tsunamis generated from subduction zones such as Makran, the northern part of the Sunda trench and submarine landslides. The arrival time for these events could range between 15 minutes for the Andaman Nicobar Islands to 2-3 hours for the mainland. This is a time scale where effective warning and being prepared to act can save many lives. The Indian Tsunami Early Warning Centre (ITEWC) is an official tsunami service provider for 25 countries along the Indian Ocean Coasts. Through achieving improvements to the practical and operational capacities of ITEWC, grounded in local participation, PCTWIN takes concrete steps towards ensuring communities are more disaster resilient.The objectives of PCTWIN are aligned with the pillars of people-centred early warning: improving disaster risk knowledge; improved detection, observation, and forecasting of tsunamis; more effective and more inclusive tsunami warning communication; increased preparedness.Knowledge of the physics of tsunamigenic sources provides invaluable insights into the expected features and frequency of future large megathrust earthquakes. PCTWIN will use the GNSS stations in the Sumatra-Andaman region to tackle fundamental questions regarding post seismic deformation and strain accumulation 20 years after the great 2004 Sumatra Earthquake.Non-seismic and atypical tsunami sources have been responsible for deadly, near-source, tsunamis that have left no time for the affected populations to safely evacuate. Examples are the 2018 Sulawesi and Sunda Strait Tsunamis. PCTWIN pushes boundaries of frontier research by comprehensive characterization of tsunamigenic submarine landslide sources. This will pave the way for tsunami forecasting to include the landslide sources.There are several operational and technical challenges related to tsunami forecasting and early warning, such as high uncertainties in early source characterizations, gaps related to timely assimilation and post-processing of data, and effective communication of uncertainties. PCTWIN promotes a paradigm shift, from deterministic to probabilistic tsunami forecasting with flexible scenario building for the next generation of Indian tsunami early warning system. This entails co-design of communication of uncertainties in warnings and uncertainty reduction through real-time multi-channel data assimilation, especially through implementation of geodetic data for fast source characterization within 5 minutes. PCTWIN strives to forecast not only the hazard but also the impact, at different scales, from lower resolution national scale to higher resolution local scale at selected hotspots as pilot sites for the future.For near-source tsunamis with short arrival times, preparedness and readiness to act can save many lives. Situational awareness and risk perception gaps, especially related to inclusion of vulnerable groups, are serious barriers towards community resilience to tsunamis. PCTWIN embraces inclusive, local, and participatory methods for increasing the preparedness of the communities at tsunami risk. This is facilitated by synergies with UNESCO initiatives in the Indian Ocean region such as the Tsunami Ready Recognition Program. PCTWIN complements the Tsunami ready preparedness indicators by introducing markers measuring the inclusivity of the tsunami response plans devised by the local communities and engagement of the private sector.Striving to render tsunami readiness accessible to all communities at risk, PCTWIN will co-design and co-develop best practice guidelines for making communities tsunami ready and tsunami resilient.

联合国呼吁地球上的每个人都受到警报系统的保护。与其他更常见的灾害相比，海啸事件造成的损失最大。印度海岸线是世界上人口最稠密的地区之一，很容易发生由莫克兰俯冲带、巽他海沟北部和海底滑坡等俯冲带引发的海啸。这些活动的到达时间从安达曼尼科巴群岛的 15 分钟到大陆的 2-3 小时不等。在这个时间范围内，有效的警告和准备采取行动可以挽救许多生命。印度海啸预警中心 (ITEWC) 是印度洋沿岸 25 个国家的官方海啸服务提供商。通过提高 ITEWC 的实际和运营能力，以当地参与为基础，PCTWIN 采取具体步骤，确保社区更具抗灾能力。PCTWIN 的目标与以人为本的早期预警的支柱相一致：提高灾害风险知识；改进海啸的探测、观测和预报；更有效、更具包容性的海啸预警通信；加强准备。海啸源的物理学知识为了解未来大型逆冲地震的预期特征和频率提供了宝贵的见解。 PCTWIN 将利用苏门答腊-安达曼地区的 GNSS 站来解决 2004 年苏门答腊大地震 20 年后有关震后变形和应变积累的基本问题。非地震和非典型海啸源是造成致命的近源海啸的原因这使得受影响人口没有时间安全撤离。例如 2018 年苏拉威西岛和巽他海峡海啸。 PCTWIN 通过对引发海啸的海底滑坡源进行全面表征，拓展了前沿研究的界限。这将为海啸预报纳入滑坡源铺平道路。海啸预报和早期预警存在一些与海啸预报和预警相关的操作和技术挑战，例如早期源特征的高度不确定性、与及时同化和数据后处理相关的差距、以及对不确定性的有效沟通。 PCTWIN 促进了从确定性海啸预报到概率性海啸预报的范式转变，为下一代印度海啸预警系统构建了灵活的场景。这需要通过实时多通道数据同化，特别是通过实施大地测量数据，在 5 分钟内实现快速源表征，共同设计预警中的不确定性沟通和减少不确定性。 PCTWIN 致力于预测不同尺度的灾害和影响，从低分辨率的国家尺度到高分辨率的局部尺度，在选定的热点地区作为未来的试点。对于到达时间短的近源海啸，做好准备和准备采取行动可以挽救许多生命。情境意识和风险认知差距，特别是与弱势群体包容性相关的差距，是社区抵御海啸的严重障碍。 PCTWIN 采用包容性、本地性和参与性的方法来加强面临海啸风险的社区的准备工作。与教科文组织在印度洋地区的倡议（例如“海啸准备认可计划”）的协同作用促进了这一目标。 PCTWIN 通过引入衡量当地社区制定的海啸应对计划和私营部门参与的包容性的标记来补充海啸准备指标。为了努力让所有面临风险的社区都能做好海啸准备工作，PCTWIN 将共同设计和共同制定海啸准备指标。制定最佳实践指南，使社区做好海啸准备并抵御海啸。