Towards climate stabilisation: understanding changes in climate, climate variability, and impacts

实现气候稳定：了解气候变化、气候变异性和影响

• 批准号: NE/X017850/1
• 负责人: Andrea Dittus
• 金额: $ 79.2万
• 依托单位: University of Reading
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Fellowship
• 财政年份: 2024
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2024 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FX017850%2F1
• 关键词: Towards; climate; stabilisation; understanding; changes

The aims of the Paris Agreement state that global warming should be limited to 2 degrees of warming above pre-industrial and 1.5 if possible. The implication of the Agreement is that global temperatures should permanently stay at or below this threshold. To stabilise global temperatures at a given level in the long-term, warming at the global scale must be halted. This can only be achieved by reducing emissions of greenhouse gases to net-zero. If all existing climate policies are successfully implemented, the world is currently on track for between 2.5 and 3 degrees of global warming. Given the explicit aims of the Paris Agreement to limit warming to less than 2 degrees, it is important to study what stabilising temperatures at specific global warming levels would mean for regional climate in different regions across the globe.Research into stabilised climates is still in its early stages. Evidence is beginning to emerge that a stabilised climate could be very different from a rapidly warming climate, even at the same global warming level. However, the physical mechanisms explaining these differences in the mean state remain poorly understood. Beyond the mean state, even less is known about how internal modes of climate variability might differ in a warmer, stabilised climate. Changes in the pattern, frequency, or amplitude of modes of variability would have severe impacts across much of the world. Changes in the mean state and in internal climate variability must be quantified and understood, and incorporated into future climate change risk assessments. In addition to needing to include stabilised climate projections, climate change risk assessments also need to account for natural influences on climate. An often overlooked risk with significant consequences is the possibility of a series of large volcanic eruptions occurring in a future warmer climate. Several successive large volcanic eruptions occurred in the 19th century, and a similar sequence of eruptions could occur again. A storyline where a series of large volcanic eruptions occur in a stabilised climate will be explored in this fellowship.This fellowship will fill an important gap in our assessments of possible future climate change and regional climate risk. Climate model simulations are an important tool to explore possible future climates and investigate the mechanisms of future climate change. Currently, only very few experiments designed to study stabilisation at specific global warming levels exist. Novel ensembles designed to study climate stabilisation and the response to volcanic eruptions in a warmer, stabilised climate will be produced in this fellowship. This highly novel approach will generate important insights into the risks of a future world where temperatures have stabilised and produce a valuable resource to be shared with the broad science community at the end of this fellowship. The outcomes of this fellowship will inform policy and adaptation discussions over the next decade and beyond.

《巴黎协定》的目标规定，全球变暖应限制在较工业化前水平高 2 度的范围内，如果可能的话，应限制在 1.5 度之内。该协议的含义是全球气温应永久保持在该阈值或以下。为了将全球气温长期稳定在特定水平，必须停止全球范围内的变暖。这只能通过将温室气体排放量减少到净零来实现。如果所有现有的气候政策都能成功实施，全球目前的气温将上升 2.5 到 3 度。鉴于《巴黎协定》的明确目标是将气温升高限制在 2 度以内，研究将气温稳定在特定的全球变暖水平对全球不同地区的区域气候意味着什么非常重要。对稳定气候的研究仍在进行中早期阶段。越来越多的证据表明，即使全球变暖水平相同，稳定的气候也可能与快速变暖的气候有很大不同。然而，解释这些平均状态差异的物理机制仍然知之甚少。除了平均状态之外，我们对气候变化的内部模式在温暖、稳定的气候中可能有何不同知之甚少。变异模式的模式、频率或幅度的变化将对世界大部分地区产生严重影响。必须量化和理解平均状态和内部气候变率的变化，并将其纳入未来的气候变化风险评估中。除了需要包括稳定的气候预测外，气候变化风险评估还需要考虑对气候的自然影响。一个经常被忽视并产生重大后果的风险是，未来气候变暖可能会发生一系列大型火山喷发。 19世纪连续发生了几次大型火山喷发，类似的喷发序列可能会再次发生。该奖学金将探讨在稳定的气候下发生一系列大型火山喷发的故事情节。该奖学金将填补我们对未来可能的气候变化和区域气候风险评估的重要空白。气候模型模拟是探索未来可能的气候和研究未来气候变化机制的重要工具。目前，只有很少的实验旨在研究特定全球变暖水平下的稳定性。该奖学金将产生旨在研究气候稳定以及在温暖、稳定的气候下对火山喷发的反应的新颖整体。这种高度新颖的方法将对温度稳定的未来世界的风险产生重要的见解，并产生宝贵的资源，在本次研究金结束时与广大科学界共享。该研究金的成果将为未来十年及以后的政策和适应讨论提供信息。