MULTI-STRESS: Quantifying the impacts of multiple stressors in multiple dimensions to improve ecological forecasting

多重压力：在多个维度量化多种压力源的影响，以改进生态预测

• 批准号: NE/Z000130/1
• 负责人: Christopher Clements
• 金额: $ 85.89万
• 依托单位: University of Bristol
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2024
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2024 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FZ000130%2F1
• 关键词: MULTI; STRESS; Quantifying; impacts; multiple

Our world is characterised by change, driven largely by human activities. These activities - such as the harvesting of natural resources and emission of greenhouse gases - put pressure on our planet's ecosystems, reshaping global biodiversity through declines in the abundance of populations, and the extinction of species. However, we still have limited understanding of the mechanisms by which these detrimental activities (termed "stressors") affect wildlife populations. This lack of understanding is further exacerbated by the fact that most species globally (~80%) are exposed to more than one stressor (e.g. fishing pressure and climate change) simultaneously. In such a scenario, stressors may interact in unpredictable ways, further accelerating biodiversity declines. Consequently, without a better understanding of how stressors interact to impact wildlife populations it is impossible to accurately forecast how biodiversity will change into the future, or identify species at the highest risk of extinction. This project will tackle this gap in our knowledge in a fundamentally different way to what has been attempted before. Rather than solely examining the impacts of multiple stressors on population abundances, we will use an exceptional dataset of two Vulnerable Red Listed seabird species as a model system to quantify how two prominent stressors (climate change and fishery pressure) impact multiple facets of a population's ecology simultaneously. We will explore how stressors impact behaviours (individual foraging effort), physical condition (body condition, a measure of an individual's overall health), demographic rates (e.g., survival, fecundity), and population trends over time within a single analytical framework. Doing so will allow us to understand how wildlife populations change to cope with increasing levels of anthropogenically derived stress, whether such changes mitigate the negative impacts of multiple stressors, and whether these changes can be used to predict populations that are at risk of collapse. We will then use this information to build models to forecast how these vulnerable species will cope with future environmental change by explicitly incorporating individual's ability to change behaviour, morphology, and demographic rates in the face of increasing stress. The outcomes of this project have the potential to revolutionise our understanding of how multiple stressors impact multiple facets of a population's ecology, and how these impacts can sum to drive biodiversity change. The knowledge generated by this project will help conservationists to develop more effective strategies to manage at-risk species, policy makers to more reliably judge the impacts of resource extraction, and the general public to gain a deeper appreciation of the challenges faced by wildlife due to human activities. It will also provide a platform on which the wider research community can build to advance our understanding of the impacts of multiple stressors on biodiversity.

我们的世界的特征是变化，主要由人类活动驱动。这些活动 - 例如收获自然资源和温室气体的排放 - 给我们星球的生态系统施加了压力，通过大量种群和物种的灭绝来重塑全球生物多样性。但是，我们仍然对这些有害活动（称为“压力源”）影响野生动植物种群的机制有限。由于全球大多数物种（约80％）同时暴露于多种物种（例如捕鱼压力和气候变化），因此缺乏理解进一步加剧了这一事实。在这种情况下，压力源可能会以不可预测的方式相互作用，从而进一步加速生物多样性下降。因此，如果不更好地理解压力源如何相互作用影响野生动植物种群，就无法准确预测生物多样性将如何变成未来，或识别出灭绝最高风险的物种。该项目将以我们的知识来应对这一差距，这与以前尝试过的方式根本不同。与其仅检查多种压力源对种群丰度的影响，我们将使用两个脆弱的红色列出的海鸟物种的特殊数据集作为一种模型系统，以量化两个杰出的压力源（气候变化和渔业压力）如何同时影响人群生态学的多个方面。我们将探讨压力源如何影响行为（个人觅食努力），身体状况（身体状况，对个人整体健康的度量），人口统计学率（例如生存率，繁殖力）以及人口趋势随着时间的流逝而在单个分析框架内随着时间的流逝而随着时间的流逝。这样做将使我们能够了解野生动植物种群如何改变以应对人类发育的压力水平的增加，这种变化是否减轻了多种压力源的负面影响，以及这些变化是否可用于预测有崩溃风险的人群。然后，我们将使用此信息来构建模型，以预测这些脆弱物种如何通过明确纳入个人改变行为，形态和人口统计学速率的能力来应对未来的环境变化，这是面对日益压力。该项目的结果有可能彻底改变我们对多重压力源如何影响人群生态的多个方面的理解，以及这些影响如何概括以推动生物多样性的变化。该项目产生的知识将有助于保护主义者制定更有效的策略来管理高危物种，决策者更可靠地判断资源提取的影响，以及公众对由于人类活动所面临的挑战的深入了解。它还将提供一个平台，更广泛的研究社区可以在该平台上促进我们对多种压力源对生物多样性的影响的理解。