Radar-supported Next-Generation Forecasting of Volcanic Ash Hazard (R4AsH)

雷达支持的下一代火山灰危害预报 (R4AsH)

基本信息

批准号：
NE/S00467X/1
负责人：
Helen Dacre
金额：
$ 36.29万
依托单位：
University of Reading
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2019
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2019 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FS00467X%2F1
关键词：
Radar supported Next Generation Forecasting

项目摘要

Volcanic plumes from explosive eruptions present a global hazard to health, the environment and the economy. The disruption caused by airborne ash to aviation is well documented and can have serious financial repercussions. Consequently, forecasting the extent and evolution of ash-rich plumes is vital for hazard assessment. However, the accuracy of numerical plume models is currently limited by uncertainties in the input eruption parameters, or 'source term', that describe the initial distribution of ash in the atmosphere.We will develop a new approach to improve estimates of source term parameters by combining advanced numerical models, techniques for understanding uncertainty and state-of-the-art satellite observations of volcanic plumes. Applying this method to data from recent eruptions will provide critical insight into how plumes evolve as they are dispersed, and into the processes involved, such as particle sedimentation and aggregation. We currently have no technique for observing these processes in the critical source term region, and such real-time data would be transformational for ash hazard forecasting. To address this, we propose multi-frequency radar as a powerful new measurement tool capable of providing the key source term parameters that describe particle size distribution and mass loading. We will develop and demonstrate the potential of this technique using laboratory experiments and advanced numerical simulations of plumes. The results will be immediately relevant to existing single-frequency radar systems currently used to observe plumes, and will inform the design and deployment of next-generation multi-frequency systems.This project is a collaboration between volcanologists, atmospheric and radar physicists and meteorologists, who are expert in laboratory experiments, remote sensing, uncertainty in environmental systems and numerical modelling. By working directly with the UK Met Office, we will deliver a new level of uncertainty understanding into operational long-range airborne ash concentration forecasts. The results will be of enormous benefit to international workers in volcanic plume forecasting and hazard assessment, and will open the door to near-real-time 3D quantification of plume processes. More accurate forecasts of the dispersal of ash in the atmosphere will enable improved mitigation for health effects, infrastructure damage, agricultural contamination and aviation hazards to deliver significant and globally relevant social, environmental and economic impacts.

爆炸性喷发产生的火山羽流对全球健康、环境和经济构成危害。空气中的火山灰对航空业造成的破坏已有充分记录，并可能造成严重的财务影响。因此，预测富含火山灰羽流的范围和演变对于灾害评估至关重要。然而，数值羽流模型的准确性目前受到输入喷发参数或“源项”的不确定性的限制，这些参数描述了大气中灰烬的初始分布。我们将开发一种新方法来改进源项参数的估计：结合先进的数值模型、理解不确定性的技术和最先进的火山羽流卫星观测。将这种方法应用于最近喷发的数据将为了解羽流在分散过程中如何演变以及所涉及的过程（例如颗粒沉降和聚集）提供重要的见解。我们目前没有技术来观察关键源项区域中的这些过程，而此类实时数据将对灰烬危害预测产生变革。为了解决这个问题，我们提出多频雷达作为一种强大的新测量工具，能够提供描述颗粒尺寸分布和质量载荷的关键源项参数。我们将通过实验室实验和先进的羽流数值模拟来开发和展示该技术的潜力。结果将立即与目前用于观测羽流的现有单频雷达系统相关，并将为下一代多频系统的设计和部署提供信息。该项目是火山学家、大气和雷达物理学家以及气象学家之间的合作，他们是实验室实验、遥感、环境系统不确定性和数值建模方面的专家。通过直接与英国气象局合作，我们将对长期空气灰浓度预测的不确定性理解达到新的水平。研究结果将为火山羽流预测和危害评估领域的国际工作者带来巨大好处，并将为羽流过程的近实时 3D 量化打开大门。对大气中灰烬扩散的更准确预测将有助于改善对健康影响、基础设施破坏、农业污染和航空危害的缓解，从而产生重大的全球相关的社会、环境和经济影响。