TundraTime: Plant phenology change as a driver of Arctic greening trends

TundraTime：植物物候变化是北极绿化趋势的驱动因素

基本信息

批准号：
NE/W006448/1
负责人：
Claudia Colesie
金额：
$ 76.89万
依托单位：
University of Edinburgh
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2022
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2022 至无数据
项目状态：
未结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FW006448%2F1
关键词：
TundraTime Plant phenology change driver

项目摘要

The TundraTime project will address climate change impacts in tundra ecosystems including how warming is shifting tundra plant phenology - the timing of life events such as bud burst or flowering - and productivity - the increase in plant growth and biomass over time. We will answer the fundamental research question of whether climate warming is leading to longer tundra growing seasons and thus increasing plant productivity in the Arctic, with important implications for carbon cycling and wildlife. Critical knowledge gaps in the field of global change ecology are what role the high latitudes will play in the global carbon cycle and how Arctic food webs will be restructured in the future with accelerated warming. A critical unknown is whether shifting plant phenology is altering tundra carbon cycling and wildlife habitats. Projections of climate feedbacks from high-latitude ecosystems remain uncertain as we do not yet know if carbon losses from warming soils will be offset by increases in tundra productivity. Tundra plant responses to warming could be key for understanding the fate of wildlife populations in a rapidly changing Arctic. Forty years of satellite and field observations have revealed widespread changes in the tundra's surface that protects large stocks of frozen carbon below. Field studies indicate that plants are coming into leaf earlier in spring, bare ground is becoming vegetated, and plants are now growing taller. While there is scientific consensus that climate change is reshaping Arctic ecosystems, great uncertainty persists about what the greening observed from space means in terms of change on-the-ground.The TundraTime project will answer the fundamental research questions of whether climate warming is leading to longer periods of plant growth and increases in plant productivity in the Arctic. We will test specific hypotheses of whether tundra ecosystems are experiencing: A) increases in productivity, B) shifts in phenology and C) asynchrony of above- and below-ground plant growth. To explore these questions, we will integrate high-resolution drone and time-lapse camera imagery with satellite and in-situ data from 12 focal Arctic research sites. Our findings will inform biome-wide projections of tundra vegetation change and global-scale predictions of climate feedbacks to unprecedented rates of warming.If tundra plant productivity is responding directly to the warmer and longer Arctic growing seasons then tundra productivity will trap more carbon in tundra ecosystems and restructure wildlife habitats. However, if instead tundra plant growing seasons are shifting earlier, then projections of increases in tundra vegetation with warming may be overestimates and earlier timing of key forage could alter migratory behaviour and ultimately wildlife populations. And, if the above- and below-ground responses of tundra plants are asynchronous, plant growth in the now extended snow-free autumns could instead be occurring below ground, which would overturn how satellite data and Earth-system models estimate plant productivity and carbon storage in warming tundra ecosystems. The TundraTime project will test the drivers of Arctic greening by resolving the uncertainty around what role shifting plant phenology plays in the increased tundra productivity with warming. This research will bridge critical scale gaps to resolve the uncertainty between satellite and in-situ observations of changes in the timing of plant growth with accelerating climate warming.

苔原项目将解决苔原生态系统中的气候变化影响，包括变暖如何转移苔原植物的物候 - 诸如芽爆发或开花的生活时机以及生产力 - 生产力 - 随着时间的推移，植物生长和生物量的增加。我们将回答一个基本的研究问题，即气候变暖是否导致苔原生长较长，从而提高了北极的植物生产力，对碳循环和野生动植物产生了重要影响。全球变化生态学领域的关键知识差距是高纬度在全球碳循环中将扮演的角色，以及未来随着变暖的加速如何重组北极食品网。一个关键的未知是转移植物的物候是否正在改变苔原碳循环和野生动植物栖息地。高纬度生态系统的气候反馈预测仍然不确定，因为我们尚不知道会因苔原生产率的提高而抵消了升温土壤中的碳损失。苔原植物对变暖的反应可能是了解北极迅速变化的野生动植物种群的命运的关键。四十年的卫星和田间观测表明，苔原表面的广泛变化可保护下面的大量冷冻碳。现场研究表明，植物正在春季早些时候进入叶子，裸露的地面正在植根，现在植物越来越高。虽然有科学的共识，即气候变化正在重塑北极生态系统，但对从空间上观察到的绿色观察到的绿色在地面上意味着什么。北极植物生长的较长时期和植物生产力的提高。我们将检验苔原生态系统是否正在经历的特定假设：a）生产率提高，b）物候学和c）上层植物生长和地下植物生长的异步。为了探讨这些问题，我们将将高分辨率无人机和延时摄像机图像与来自12个焦点北极研究站点的卫星和原位数据集成在一起。我们的发现将为苔原植被变化的生物群预测和全球尺度预测气候反馈对前所未有的变暖率的预测。生态系统和重组野生动植物栖息地。但是，如果取而代之的是苔原植物生长季节较早变化，那么变暖的苔原植被增加的预测可能会被高估，而关键草料的较早时间可能会改变迁徙行为并最终导致野生动植物种群。而且，如果苔原植物的上述和低于地面的反应是异步的，那么现在延长的无雪秋天的植物生长可能会发生在地下，这将推翻卫星数据和地球系统模型如何估计植物生产力和碳在变暖的苔原生态系统中存储。苔原项目将通过解决植物候位在提高的苔原生产率随着变暖中的角色转移何种作用来测试北极绿化的驱动因素。这项研究将弥合临界尺度差距，以解决卫星和原地观察到随着气候变暖的加速植物生长时机变化的不确定性。

项目成果

期刊论文数量（4）

专著数量（0）

科研奖励数量（0）

会议论文数量（0）

专利数量（0）

Plant diversity dynamics over space and time in a warming Arctic

变暖的北极植物多样性随空间和时间的变化

DOI：
10.32942/x2ms4n
发表时间：
2023
期刊：
影响因子：
0
作者：
García Criado M
通讯作者：
García Criado M

Plant traits poorly predict winner and loser shrub species in a warming tundra biome.

DOI：
10.1038/s41467-023-39573-4
发表时间：
2023-06-28
期刊：
NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
影响因子：
16.6
作者：
Criado, Mariana Garcia;Myers-Smith, Isla H.;Bjorkman, Anne D.;Normand, Signe;Blach-Overgaard, Anne;Thomas, Haydn J. D.;Eskelinen, Anu;Happonen, Konsta;Alatalo, Juha M.;Anadon-Rosell, Alba;Aubin, Isabelle;te Beest, Mariska;Betway-May, Katlyn R.;Blok, Daan;Buras, Allan;Cerabolini, Bruno E. L.;Christie, Katherine;Cornelissen, J. Hans C.;Forbes, Bruce C.;Frei, Esther R.;Grogan, Paul;Hermanutz, Luise;Hollister, Robert D.;Hudson, James;Iturrate-Garcia, Maitane;Kaarlejaervi, Elina;Kleyer, Michael;Lamarque, Laurent J.;Lembrechts, Jonas J.;Levesque, Esther;Luoto, Miska;Macek, Petr;May, Jeremy L.;Prevey, Janet S.;Schaepman-Strub, Gabriela;Sheremetiev, Serge N.;Collier, Laura Siegwart;Soudzilovskaia, Nadejda A.;Trant, Andrew;Venn, Susanna E.;Virkkala, Anna-Maria
通讯作者：
Virkkala, Anna-Maria

The tundra phenology database: more than two decades of tundra phenology responses to climate change

苔原物候数据库：二十多年来苔原物候对气候变化的响应