Slope-failure mechanisms, catastrophic mass flow processes and public perception of risk in British Columbia and Southern Patagonia.

不列颠哥伦比亚省和南巴塔哥尼亚的斜坡失稳机制、灾难性质量流过程以及公众对风险的认知。

• 批准号: NE/T014210/1
• 负责人: Andrew Russell
• 金额: $ 0.96万
• 依托单位: Newcastle University
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2020
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2020 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FT014210%2F1
• 关键词: Slope; failure; mechanisms; catastrophic; mass

NERC : Holly Chubb : NE/S007512/1Mountainous environments present a variety of risks to human population in the surrounding communities. Damages resulting from triggered natural hazards can cost governments and individuals millions of pounds annually to restore public buildings, roads, and houses. Landslides in mountainous regions are a particularly deadly form of natural hazard due to their unpredictability and potential scale, resulting in thousands of deaths every year. Regions such as Canada and Chile have extensive mountainous ranges in the form of the Canadian Rockies and the Patagonian Andes respectively, placing higher populations at-risk; but this risk is often not well understood. There is still debate in the scientific community about the different factors that cause an area to be at risk of a landslide, as well as a lack of research into how to accurately communicate the posed risk to affected communities.Climate change is one of the greatest challenges that humans as a species have faced in modern history, inflating the risk of natural disasters in both frequency and magnitude with landslides being no exception. As the planet warms, ice and snow from ice sheets and glaciers is decreasing. This is an important factor as ice helps to stabilise mountain slopes by acting as a cement between rock particles. Ice loss results in large areas of unstable and weakened mountain slopes that no longer have a sufficient amount of ice to keep them intact. A small trigger, such as a day of intense rainfall or a minor earthquake, can result in the collapse of huge areas of rock creating a landslide as it progresses down slope. Research into predicting these failures and understanding how we can determine the size of a failure is essential to protect communities that live within mountainous regions. This research aims to use satellite imagery, alongside primary surveying data and sediment sampling, to help further understand this hazard. By looking at previous landslide events on satellite imagery it will be possible to identify pre-conditioning factors such as cracks, faults, or minor rock falls, that precede a movement. This information can be applied to slopes that we already understand to be unstable to monitor their deformation and predict future catastrophic failure. Sediment samples from previous landslide events will also inform us of the behaviour and dynamics of previous landslide events which could help to predict the area that a future event may affect, assisting in hazard mitigation strategies.Both the Mount Meager Massif and Southern Patagonian Ice field have experienced ice loss at an unprecedented rate in the 21st century as a consequence of climate change, which makes it highly likely that their communities will continue to suffer from increased and more frequent landslide events. Populations are also increasing in these areas, further extending the impact of landslide risk. It is therefore important that any research undertaken in this field is communicated to local people in an understandable and informative manner. This requires investigation into the existing perception of risk from landslides and how individuals would like both scientific organisations and research teams, as well as governments, to communicate this risk to them. It is only through geographical and social research, combined with effective communication strategies, that this risk can be effectively mitigated.

NERC：Holly Chubb：NE/S007512/1山区环境给周围社区的人口带来了各种风险。引发的自然灾害造成的损害每年可能会导致政府和个人花费数百万英镑来修复公共建筑、道路和房屋。山区山体滑坡因其不可预测性和潜在规模而成为一种特别致命的自然灾害，每年导致数千人死亡。加拿大和智利等地区分别拥有加拿大落基山脉和巴塔哥尼亚安第斯山脉等广阔的山脉，使更多人口面临风险；但这种风险往往没有被很好地理解。科学界对于导致一个地区面临山体滑坡风险的不同因素仍然存在争论，并且缺乏关于如何向受影响社区准确传达所带来的风险的研究。气候变化是最大的风险之一人类作为一个物种在现代历史上面临的挑战，自然灾害的风险在频率和规模上都增加了，山体滑坡也不例外。随着地球变暖，冰盖和冰川的冰雪正在减少。这是一个重要因素，因为冰充当岩石颗粒之间的水泥，有助于稳定山坡。冰损失导致大面积的山坡不稳定和削弱，不再有足够的冰来保持其完好无损。一个小触发因素，例如一天的强降雨或小地震，可能会导致大片岩石崩塌，沿着斜坡向下发展，从而形成山体滑坡。研究预测这些故障并了解如何确定故障的规模对于保护山区社区至关重要。这项研究旨在利用卫星图像以及主要测量数据和沉积物采样来帮助进一步了解这种危害。通过查看卫星图像上以前的山体滑坡事件，可以识别运动之前的预处理因素，例如裂缝、断层或小型岩石坠落。这些信息可以应用于我们已经知道不稳定的斜坡，以监测其变形并预测未来的灾难性破坏。先前山体滑坡事件的沉积物样本还将告诉我们先前山体滑坡事件的行为和动态，这有助于预测未来事件可能影响的区域，协助制定减灾策略。米格山地块和南巴塔哥尼亚冰原都有由于气候变化，21世纪的冰层流失速度前所未有，这使得他们的社区极有可能继续遭受更多、更频繁的山体滑坡事件。这些地区的人口也在增加，进一步扩大了山体滑坡风险的影响。因此，在这一领域进行的任何研究都必须以易于理解和信息丰富的方式传达给当地人。这需要调查人们对山体滑坡风险的现有认知，以及个人希望科学组织、研究团队以及政府如何向他们传达这种风险。只有通过地理和社会研究，结合有效的沟通策略，才能有效降低这种风险。