E-Rise: Earliest detection of sea-level rise accelerations to inform lead time to upgrade/replace coastal flood defense infrastructure.

E-Rise：最早检测海平面上升加速度，以告知升级/更换沿海防洪基础设施的准备时间。

• 批准号: NE/P009069/1
• 负责人: Ivan Haigh
• 金额: $ 17.32万
• 依托单位: University of Southampton
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2017
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2017 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FP009069%2F1
• 关键词: Rise; Earliest; detection; sea; level

There is strong observational evidence that global mean sea levels are rising and the rate of rise is predicted to accelerate, significantly threatening hundreds of billions of pounds of infrastructure around the UK coast. Substantial upgrades/replacements to coastal defences will therefore be required to maintain existing flood risk management standards. However, this will involve long lead times relating to planning and implementation of schemes. For example, plans for building the Thames Barrier were started after the notorious 1953 North Sea flood, but the Barrier was not operational until 1982 - nearly 30 years later! Rapid rates of sea-level rise will reduce the lead time available for upgrading/replacing defence infrastructure. Moreover, detecting accelerations in the rate of sea-level rise is not straightforward, due to the considerable inter-annual variability evident in sea level at regional/local scales. Our latest research has shown that it could take years to more than a decade before discernable accelerations are detected. There is therefore an immediate need to: (1) explore how quickly different sea-level accelerations can be detected, and to compare these with the lead times that are necessary for upgrading/replacing different defence infrastructure; and (2) assess whether we could detect sea level accelerations earlier, thereby extending the lead times available for action. These issues are particular important in relation to the adaptive pathway approach for managing increasing flood risk that was pioneered in the Thames Estuary 2100 (TE2100) project. Although the essence of an adaptive management plan is its ability to adapt when needed, it will only be effective if: (1) a significant acceleration in sea-level rise is detected and then a decision is made in timely manner to move to an alternative pathway; and (2) there is an appropriate lead time to carry out the necessary adaptation. In their first interim review of the TE2100 plan, our project partners the Environment Agency have identified that they need to do much more to: (1) understand how they identify changes in sea level which significantly depart from the assumed projections; and (2) understand the lead times to put in place the flood risk management interventions. Our proposal will apply previous NERC-funded research and other relevant research to better understand likely lead times for upgrading/replacing coastal defence infrastructure around the UK coast over the 21st century, and assess whether we could detect sea-level accelerations earlier to provide sufficient lead time for action. To do this we will develop an active partner group to discuss the issues, challenges and implications relating to detection of sea-level accelerations and the lead times. We will then develop a toolbox that will allow us to: (1) identify the timings (with uncertainties) at which accelerations in sea-level rise might first be recognized using the best possible combination of in situ and satellite-based data and most appropriate statistical methods; and (2) to estimate the lead times; for a wide range of sea-level projections. As a case study, we will use the toolbox to examine the planning and engineering implementation requirements and their associated lead times for upgrading/replacing the Thames Barrier and associated defences. The toolbox, example outputs and the guidance notes developed will be made freely available via the www.psmsl.org website, for wider use.The study will be transformative as the outputs will allow our partners (Environment Agency, EDF Energy, HR Wallingford) and wider stakeholders to: better plan for the future by incorporating information on lead times; better monitor change; and make more effective and confident decisions as to which specific adaptive pathway to follow.The project will last 1 year and cost (80% FEC) £118,500.Key words: sea level acceleration, lead times, defence upgrades, Thames Barrier

有强有力的观测证据表明，全球平均海平面正在上升，而且预计上升速度还会加快，这将严重威胁英国海岸周围数千亿磅的基础设施，需要对沿海防御设施进行大量升级/更换，以维持现有的洪水。然而，这将涉及与计划和实施相关的较长准备时间。例如，修建泰晤士河屏障的计划是在臭名昭著的 1953 年北海洪水之后开始的，但直到该屏障才投入运行。 1982 年 - 近 30 年后！海平面上升速度将缩短升级/更换国防基础设施的准备时间。此外，由于年际变化相当大，检测海平面上升速度的加速并不容易。我们的最新研究表明，可能需要数年至十年以上的时间才能检测到明显的加速度，因此迫切需要：（1）探索不同海平面的速度。加速度可以被检测到，并将其与升级/更换不同防御基础设施所需的准备时间进行比较；（2）评估我们是否可以更早地检测到海平面加速，从而延长可采取行动的准备时间。与泰晤士河口 2100 (TE2100) 项目首创的增加洪水风险的适应性路径方法有关，尽管适应性管理计划的本质是其在需要时进行适应的能力，但只有在以下情况下才会有效：(1)一个检测到海平面上升显着加速，然后及时做出转向替代路径的决定；(2) 在对 TE2100 的第一次中期审查中有适当的准备时间。计划中，我们的项目合作伙伴环境局已确定他们需要做更多工作：（1）了解他们如何识别与假设预测显着偏离的海平面变化；以及（2）了解实施的准备时间；我们的建议将适用以前的洪水风险管理干预措施。 NERC 资助的研究和其他相关研究，以更好地了解 21 世纪英国海岸周围升级/更换海防基础设施的可能准备时间，并评估我们是否可以更早地检测到海平面加速，以便为行动提供足够的准备时间。为此，我们将建立一个积极的合作伙伴小组来讨论与海平面加速度检测和交付时间相关的问题、挑战和影响，然后我们将开发一个工具箱，使我们能够：（1）确定时间（与。不确定性），此时可以首先利用现场数据和卫星数据以及最适当的统计方法来认识海平面上升的加速度；(2) 估计各种海平面预测的准备时间；在案例研究中，我们将使用该工具箱来检查升级/更换泰晤士河屏障和相关防御设施的规划和工程实施要求及其相关的交付时间。工具箱、示例输出和制定的指导说明将通过以下方式免费提供。 www.psmsl.org该研究将具有变革性，因为其成果将使我们的合作伙伴（环境局、EDF Energy、HR Wallingford）和更广泛的利益相关者能够： 通过纳入交付时间信息更好地规划未来；就遵循哪条具体的适应性路径做出更有效、更自信的决策。该项目将持续 1 年，成本（80% FEC）118,500 英镑。关键词：海平面加速、交付时间、防御升级、泰晤士河屏障

项目成果

EARLIEST DETECTION OF SEA-LEVEL RISE ACCELERATIONS TO INFORM UPGRADE/REPLACEMENT OF COASTAL FLOOD DEFENSE INFRASTRUCTURE

最早检测海平面上升加速度，为沿海防洪基础设施的升级/更换提供信息

• 发表时间: 2019
• 作者: Nicholls R.J

Digitising historic sea level records in the Thames Estuary, UK

将英国泰晤士河口的历史海平面记录数字化

• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: Scientific Data
• 影响因子: 9.8
• 作者: Inayatillah; A
• 通讯作者: A

Thames Estuary 2100: 10-Year ReviewTechnical Monitoring Report Final

泰晤士河口 2100 年：十年回顾技术监测报告最终版

• 发表时间: 2021
• 作者: Environment Agency

THE STATE OF THE THAMES 2021

泰晤士河州 2021

• 发表时间: 2021
• 作者: ZSL

Digitising historical sea level records in the Thames Estuary, UK.

将英国泰晤士河口的历史海平面记录数字化。

• DOI: http://dx.10.1038/s41597-022-01223-7
• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: Scientific data
• 影响因子: 9.8
• 作者: Inayatillah A